THE STRIKER: previews Wednesday’s Premier League game between CHELSEA v ARSENAL with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
CHELSEA V ARSENAL
8.15pm What better way to spend a Wednesday night than a London Derby! It’s been an incredible run for Chelsea since they sacked Frank Lampard, and after a shock 5-2 loss against West Brom they have bounced back superbly in the race for a Top Four finish. They have pretty much locked in Champions League football next season, and they also have a Champions League Final to look forward to in a couple of weeks.
That Final is against Manchester City, and after the weekend Chelsea have won the last two meetings after they also knocked City out of the FA Cup. It’s exciting times for Chelsea fans. You can’t say the same about Arsenal fans however, and effectively they have nothing to play for as the season draws to a close. They played OK against Villarreal in the Europa League Semi-Final, but 0-0 at home in the second leg is always disappointing – especially when they only needed a 1-0 win to go through.
I saw plenty of jokes on Twitter about Arsenal only turning up against small teams when they beat West Brom on Sunday night, but if you look at the xG figures they were actually very lucky to win. West Brom finished ahead on xG, 1.93 to 1.22. I felt Arsenal could play poor the weekend, especially after getting knocked out of the Europa League. Arsenal are really there for the beating against most of the top sides, and Chelsea should win tonight.
I know Arsenal have been playing reasonably good football recently. But the reality is they still can’t win games – when things get difficult you see mistakes, or they don’t take their chances. No matter what manager they have, they just can’t seem to handle pressure. The 1.72 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Chelsea looks at least ten ticks too big – I would have Chelsea at 1.6 given the way they have performed recently. They absolutely hammered Real Madrid here finishing the game with an xG of 3.79 and they can do the same to Arsenal. They have to be a Max Bet for me at the odds.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Chelsea to beat Arsenal at 1.72 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQchearl
● Chelsea are unbeaten in their last eight home Premier League matches against Arsenal (W6 D2) since losing 5-3 at Stamford Bridge back in October 2011 under André Villas-Boas.
● Arsenal won 3-1 against Chelsea on Boxing Day earlier this season in the Premier League, last completing a double over the Blues in their 2003-04 title-winning campaign.
● Arsenal have never lost a Premier League match against Chelsea when facing them in a midweek tie (Tuesday or Wednesday), though six of those games have ended level (W2). The Gunners’ four such visits to Stamford Bridge have all ended in a draw (0-0 September 1998, 2-2 September 2000, 0-0 April 2005, 2-2 January 2020).
● Arsenal have won their last two meetings with Chelsea in all competitions, last beating the Blues in three consecutive games between March 2003 and February 2004 (four in a row).
● Chelsea have won more points in Premier League London derby games this season than any other side (22 – W7 D1 L1). Victory here would equal the record for most points won in such games in a single Premier League campaign, with Arsenal in 2013-14, and Chelsea in 2005-06 & 2014-15 winning 25 points.
● Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in seven of their eight Premier League home games under Thomas Tuchel, with the exception being a 5-2 defeat to West Bromwich Albion in April.
● Arsenal are unbeaten in their last five away league games (W3 D2), winning the last two by an aggregate score of 5-0. The Gunners haven’t won three in a row on the road without conceding since May 2013.
● Chelsea’s last eight Premier League defeats against Arsenal have been with a different manager in the dugout – Claudio Ranieri, Avram Grant, Felipe Scolari, Carlo Ancelotti, André Villas-Boas, Antonio Conte, Maurizio Sarri and Frank Lampard. Of those eight, only Grant, Scolari, Villas-Boas and Conte lost their first league meeting with the Gunners.
● On the day of this game, Mikel Arteta will be 39 years and 47 days old – should Arsenal win, he will be the youngest manager to complete a top-flight double over Chelsea since Trevor Francis in the 1991-92 season with Sheffield Wednesday, aged 37.
● 53% of Arsenal striker Alexandre Lacazette’s away Premier League goals have been scored this season (10/19). The Frenchman scored in the reverse game against Chelsea this season (along with Granit Xhaka and Bukayo Saka), with Edu in 2003-04 the last Arsenal player to score home and away against the Blues in the same league season.