THE STRIKER: previews Wednesday’s Premier League games all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
EVERTON V WOLVES
6pm We only have two more days of Premier League football left this season as we squeeze in Matchday 37 midweek for the final day on Sunday! It’s been an incredible season, one we’ll never forget if not for the best reasons – I look at the fixture list this evening and I genuinely can’t remember the last time three games kicked off at the same time? I wonder will we have the same staggered fixture list when fans fully return. Whatever the future holds, we kick off Wednesday night on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with Everton hosting Wolves. Everton blew another chance to get into the mix for a European spot at the weekend with a loss against Sheffield United. Their fans must be pulling their hair out. Every time they get close to getting into the mix, they do something silly.
Ironically, Everton could see get a Europa League spot because of who won the League Cup and FA Cup this season, if Leicester do indeed finish Top Four; but they need to win their final two games. Wolves haven’t been at their best this season and their place in the table reflects that. Spurs might have only scored twice at the weekend, but they hammered Wolves creating an xG of 3.73. Apart from the Brighton performance, Wolves have been a contender for “one the beach early” but Everton have been so disappointing lately I can’t back them at odds on. Usually we see open games towards the end of the season, but this could be a cagey affair between two average sides. Under 2.5 goals looks worth backing at 1.74 in what should be a pretty dull affair.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.74 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQevewol
● Everton are looking to complete their first league double over Wolves since the 1975-76 campaign, following their 2-1 win in the reverse fixture in January.
● Wolves have won just one of their last nine away league games against Everton (D3 L5), winning 3-1 in February 2019.
● Wolves haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 12 away games against Everton in all competitions, since a 0-0 draw in September 1977.
● Six of the last 15 Premier League goals scored in meetings between Everton and Wolves have been netted in the opening 15 minutes of the game.
● Everton have lost their final home league game in three of the last seven campaigns (W3 D1), including a 1-3 loss to Bournemouth last season. The Toffees had won their final league game at Goodison Park in seven consecutive seasons prior to this.
● Wolves have lost their final away league game in each of the last four seasons. In the top-flight, Wolves have won their last away game in just one of their last 11 campaigns (D3 L7), beating Sunderland 3-1 in 2010-11.
● Everton have lost just one of their last 12 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games (W6 D5), with that coming against Manchester City in February.
● Wolves haven’t won any of their last 11 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League away games (D4 L7), since beating Liverpool 1-0 in December 2010.
● Everton’s Alex Iwobi has scored in each of his last two Premier League starts against Wolves. They’re just one of four clubs he’s scored more than once against in the competition, along with Burnley, Crystal Palace and Watford (all 2).
● In their 2-0 defeat to Spurs, Wolves’ 18-year-old forward Fábio Silva had seven shots without scoring, with only Andy Keogh against Hull City in August 2009 having more in a Premier League match for the club without finding the net (eight shots).
NEWCASTLE V SHEFFIELD UNITED
6pm This isn’t the most glamorous tie of the night, but it is an interesting one from a Newcastle point of view. Sheffield United started off the Premier League season playing reasonably good football but losing, then they went through a patch when they were playing dreadful, and they have finished the season reasonably poorly albeit they beat Everton at the weekend. The question is, can Newcastle beat them? If I was a Newcastle fan, I’d want to be putting the side finishing 20th to the sword otherwise I’d be starting to get worried about next season. Norwich and Watford looked pretty strong in the Championship this season, and you know Newcastle will be involved in the relegation fight at some stage.
Although Sheffield United have recorded two wins in their last four games, they haven’t deserved to win either. The Everton game should have been a draw, and Brighton should have won never mind drawn! Newcastle lost 4-3 to Man City at the weekend in a very entertaining game, but they played superbly well. If they can play to the same level today they will blow Sheffield United away. I wouldn’t be a huge fan of Newcastle, but looking at the figures everything points of the Newcastle win. For me they are worth backing at 1.81 but I’m also happy to keep stakes in check.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Newcastle to beat Sheffield United at 1.81 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnewshu
● Newcastle have won five of their last six league games against Sheffield United, though they did lose the reverse fixture in January this season, giving the Blades their first win of the campaign.
● Sheffield United are looking to complete their first league double over Newcastle since 1978-79 in the second tier, while they last beat them twice in the same top-flight campaign in 1971-72.
● Newcastle have lost their final home league game in each of the last two seasons, having won five in a row beforehand. They last lost more such games consecutively with a run of three between 2006-07 and 2008-09.
● Sheffield United beat Everton 2-0 in their final away game of the first ever Premier League season in 1992-93 – since then, they’ve lost their last away game in each of their three top-flight campaigns, conceding exactly three goals each time.
● Newcastle have won just one of their last 24 Premier League games played on a Wednesday (D5 L18), winning 4-1 at Bournemouth in July 2020.
● Sheffield United have won each of their last three Premier League games played on Wednesdays, including both such matches played this season (2-1 vs Manchester United, 1-0 vs Aston Villa).
● Newcastle have scored 15 goals in their last seven Premier League games, more than they had in their previous 18 in the competition (14). The Magpies have scored at least three times in their last two league games, last doing so in three consecutive top-flight matches in April 2006.
● Newcastle’s Allan Saint-Maximin has scored in both of his Premier League appearances against Sheffield United. The Blades are one of just two clubs he’s scored more than once against in the competition, along with Burnley.
● Joe Willock has scored in each of his last five Premier League appearances. Only two Newcastle players have ever scored in six consecutive games in the competition – Papiss Cissé in April 2012 (6) and Alan Shearer in November 1996 (7).
● Newcastle’s Joe Willock has scored in each of his last five Premier League games – a goal here will see him become the youngest player to score in six consecutive appearances in Premier League history (21y 272d).
TOTTENHAM V ASTON VILLA
6pm Next we have Spurs against Aston Villa, and this is a must win game for Spurs. Villa have nothing to play for, while Spurs are in the mix for a Europa League spot – I know the Europa League does add a burden on the sides and perhaps there is an element of not wanting to play the fixtures at some stage, but Spurs aren’t even close to the Champions League at the moment so realistically the Europa League is the best they can aim for. And look at Arsenal, it doesn’t take much to fall down the table these days. I feel most big clubs will be looking at Arsenal as an example of what to avoid. Villa have nothing to play for, but it’s is possible we see Grealish back and he will change the way Villa play. Although how long he can play for is another question will such a long break.
It was very disappointing to see Villa lose at the weekend against Crystal Palace, and they didn’t play very well either. Spurs hammered a poor Wolves side, but the xG figures of 3.73 was very promising and given the amount of chances Villa have given away recently, Spurs should get plenty of chances tonight. I felt Spurs were a little short at the weekend, but this time around the 1.56 looks too big. Those Villa xG conceded figures are very worrying, and I can’t see them defending any better with nothing to play for here. We should have an open game, and that will suit Spurs.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Tottenham to beat Aston Villa at 1.56 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQtotavl
● Tottenham are looking to complete their seventh Premier League double over Aston Villa, something they’ve only done as many times in the competition against Everton (7) and Manchester City (8).
● Aston Villa have lost 12 of their last 13 meetings with Tottenham in all competitions, winning the other in April 2015 under Tim Sherwood.
● Tottenham have won their final home league game in 10 of the last 12 seasons, with the exceptions being a 1-2 loss to Southampton in 2015-16 and a 2-2 draw with Everton in 2018-19.
● Aston Villa have won their final away league game in just one of the last 18 seasons (D7 L10), beating Arsenal 2-1 at the Emirates in 2010-11.
● Tottenham have won 11 of their last 12 Premier League home games played on Wednesdays (D1) since a 0-1 defeat against Leicester City in January 2016.
● Aston Villa have lost all five of their Premier League games played on Wednesdays this season – the most games a team has played on a specific day of the week within a single season and lost them all is six (Tottenham on Sundays in 1996-97).
● Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored seven goals in his last six Premier League appearances against Aston Villa, finding the net in each of his last four against the Villans.
● Aston Villa boss Dean Smith has lost each of his three Premier League matches against Spurs – he’s only lost his first four league encounters against two sides in his managerial career (Man City and Blackburn).
● This match will be Harry Kane’s 400th appearance in club football in all competitions – 334 of his 399 so far have come for Spurs, with the others coming during loan spells at Leyton Orient (18), Millwall (27), Norwich City (5) and Leicester City (15). His 236 goals since his debut in January 2011 are bettered only by Sergio Agüero (258) in English football in that time.
● Aston Villa midfielder John McGinn scored his sixth Premier League goal in their 3-2 defeat at Crystal Palace last time out – the Scotsman has scored the opening goal in four Premier League games and Villa have gone on to lose all four. Only former Bolton striker Ivan Klasnic has scored the opening goal in more Premier League games without winning than McGinn (5 – drawing all five).
CRYSTAL PALACE V ARSENAL
7pm All eyes were on Arsenal’s 1-0 win over Chelsea last week as it threw a spanner in the works in the Top Four race, but the truth is Chelsea should have won and it was another reasonably poor Arsenal performance. If you think all the way back to the start of the season, they were playing poorly but getting good results – their fans were getting excited but anybody who was a fan of xG knew it would come crashing down eventually and sure enough they won’t even finish in the Europa League spots. The Chelsea game was very similar – they created an xG of 0.61 and conceded an xG of 2.08, but somehow won 1-0. They were very lucky to beat West Brom 3-1 prior to that too, with the game finishing 1.93 to 1.22 to West Brom on xG.
I wouldn’t be a huge fan of Crystal Palace because they generally struggle to create chances and score goals, but Arsenal look worth laying here at 1.55. They just aren’t playing good football at the moment, or this season for that matter, and you can never fully trust them away from home either – even in Covid19 times. Palace have played three good games in a row with xG figures of 1.84, 1.61 and 2.58. Two wins and a reasonably unlucky loss. I feel they can get a result here against an Arsenal side who need big changes – but how do you even start to fix the club? It looks a huge road back to European football, because no doubt they will struggle to keep and attract top players now.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Arsenal to beat Crystal Palace at 1.55 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQcryarl
● Crystal Palace are unbeaten in their last five Premier League games against Arsenal (W1 D4). The Eagles had only avoided defeat in five of their first 18 against the Gunners in the competition (W2 D3 L13).
● Arsenal have lost just one of their last 15 away league games against Crystal Palace (W7 D7), going down 3-0 in April 2017.
● Only Fulham (4) have won fewer points in Premier League London derbies this season than Crystal Palace (7 – W1 D4 L4). The Eagles are winless in their last seven such matches at Selhurst Park (D4 L3) since a 2-1 win over West Ham in December 2019.
● Crystal Palace have never lost their final home league game in their 11 previous Premier League campaigns, winning eight and drawing three. Their last such defeat in a top-flight campaign was in 1980-81, going down 3-1 to Nottingham Forest.
● Arsenal lost their final away league game 0-1 against Aston Villa last season. They’ve not lost their last away game in consecutive campaigns since a run of four between 1997-98 and 2000-01, which began with a 0-1 defeat at Aston Villa.
● Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six Premier League London derbies (W3 D3). The Gunners last had a longer such run between March 2016 – January 2017 (7 games), the seventh game of which was a 2-0 victory over Crystal Palace.
● Arsenal have won each of their last three away league games by an aggregate score of 6-0. The Gunners have never previously won four consecutive away league games without conceding.
● Crystal Palace manager Roy Hodgson has won just one of his 11 home league games against Arsenal (D4 L6), beating the Gunners 1-0 with Fulham in August 2008.
● Crystal Palace striker Christian Benteke has been involved in seven goals in 14 Premier League appearances against Arsenal (4 goals, 3 assists) – only against Chelsea (9) and Sunderland (8) has he been involved in more in the competition.
● Emile Smith Rowe has scored in each of his last two Premier League appearances for Arsenal. The last Englishman to score in three consecutive league games for Arsenal was Theo Walcott (May 2013), while the last player aged under 21 to do so for the Gunners was Cesc Fàbregas (September 2007).
BURNLEY V LIVERPOOL
8.15pm Liverpool kept themselves in the Top Four race in the most dramatic fashion at the weekend with a 95th minute winner from the goalkeeper! It’s not every day you see that. For pure drama, it was fantastic though! It really spices up the Top Four race too heading into the final day which is a good thing given the title and relegation is already decided. From a betting point of view however, I wouldn’t be rushing to lump on Liverpool at 1.28 here. At the end of the day, they laboured to beat a West Brom side who are in the bottom three and Liverpool have struggled to beat a lot of average teams this season. Burnley may have lost 4-0 to Leeds at the weekend, but they didn’t play as badly as the result suggests on paper, and I would be of the opinion that they are still playing their best football of the season.
However, just because Burnley are playing their best football of the season doesn’t give them a chance against a peak Liverpool side. But as I said prior to the West Brom game – a solid performance can give Liverpool a lot of problems. Liverpool haven’t been at their best this season, we all know that. Over 2.5 goals is priced very low at 1.4 because the market expects Liverpool to score a lot, but I feel Burnley can get on the score sheet here. Both Teams To Score looks good value at 1.7 in my opinion. Liverpool have made countless mistakes at the back this season, and Burnley have created xG’s of 1.47, 1.94, 2.24 and 2.14 in their last four games. We could see a lot of goals here, and Burnley can contribute too.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.7 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQburliv
● Burnley are looking to complete their first league double over Liverpool since the 1929-30 season, after they ended the Reds’ 68-game unbeaten home run earlier this season.
● Liverpool have won five of their six Premier League away games against Burnley, winning their last three at Turf Moor since a 2-0 loss in August 2016.
● Burnley could become the first team to achieve the Premier League double over Liverpool since West Ham and Manchester United did so in 2015-16. The Clarets would be the first team finishing in the bottom half of the table to beat Liverpool twice in the same league season since Blackpool in 2010-11.
● In their first two Premier League campaigns, Burnley beat Spurs 4-2 (2009-10) and drew 0-0 with Stoke (2014-15) in their final home games of the season. Since their return in 2016-17, the Clarets have lost all four of their final league games at Turf Moor.
● Liverpool have won their final away league game in each of the last two seasons – they’ve not done so in more consecutive campaigns since a run of three between 1987-88 and 1989-90.
● Liverpool have lost two of their last five Premier League games played on Wednesdays (W2 D1), going down against Arsenal in July 2020 and Brighton in February this year. Before this, Liverpool were unbeaten in 24 league games played on Wednesday (W18 D6).
● Burnley are winless in their last nine Premier League home games, their longest ever run without a home win in the top-flight. The Clarets last had a longer spell without a home league win (any division) between March and September 1984 (10 games in the third tier).
● After scoring in his first Premier League game against Burnley, Liverpool’s Mo Salah has now failed to find the net in his last five against the Clarets. It’s his longest run without a goal against a specific opponent in the competition.
● Ashley Barnes scored the winner for Burnley against Liverpool at Anfield this season. The last player to score home and away against them for the Clarets in the same league season was Willie Irvine in 1965-66.
● Burnley have lost all four of their Premier League games with Bailey Peacock-Farrell in goal this season, conceding 14 goals in the process.
WEST BROM V WEST HAM
8.15pm Another interesting tie from a betting point of view. West Ham have finished the season poorly right when they needed to play well. They have thrown away their chance at Champions League football having had a great season, but realistically a Europa League spot would still be a massive achievement for them. Don’t forget that David Moyes was brought in to keep them up! They played well at the weekend against Brighton, but could only score once. It was a much better performance however and they created an xG of 1.99. West Brom have been playing with a lot of freedom since going down, and they will likely play another open game here. If West Ham can avoid errors at the back, they should win.
West Ham’s problem for the last few weeks has been errors at the back however – they have conceded xG’s of 2.24, 2.31, 2.80 and 1.5 when you look through their recent fixtures. West Ham should win because West Brom are a limited side, but I’d much rather back over 2.5 goals at 1.62 compared to West Ham at 1.68. West Brom are going to attack – they have no reason to put XI behind the ball here and they haven’t been doing that in their recent games. They can score at some stage, and West Ham have been creating chances for fun this season. I expect goals here, and I’d have overs ten ticks shorter.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwbawhu
● West Brom have won just two of their last 16 Premier League meetings with West Ham (D9 L5), winning 1-0 in April 2014 and 4-2 in September 2016.
● West Ham are looking to complete their first league double over West Brom since 2005-06. The Hammers are unbeaten in four against the Baggies, winning the last two in a row (D2).
● West Brom won their final home game in their last Premier League season, beating Spurs 1-0 in 2017-18. They’ve not done so in consecutive top-flight campaigns since a run of three between 1980-81 and 1982-83.
● West Ham are unbeaten in their final Premier League away game in each of the last four seasons (W3 D1). They had lost their previous eight such matches in the competition prior to this run.
● West Brom are winless in their last 15 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games (D5 L10), since beating Swansea 3-1 in December 2016. The Baggies have lost all six such games under Sam Allardyce by an aggregate score of 18-2.
● West Ham have won 28 points away from home in the Premier League this season, with the Hammers last winning more on the road in a top-flight campaign back in 1985-86 (31), going on to finish third.
● West Brom boss Sam Allardyce has lost all four of his Premier League games against West Ham since leaving the club in 2015. He’d lost just one of his first 11 against the Hammers in the top-flight before taking charge of them (W6 D4).
● This will be the 24th Premier League meeting between West Brom’s Sam Allardyce and West Ham boss David Moyes. Moyes has won 14 of the previous 23 (D3 L6), including each of the last seven in a row.
● West Ham striker Michail Antonio has been directly involved in 14 goals in his last 14 away Premier League starts (11 goals, 3 assists). Antonio has scored 24 away goals for the Hammers in the Premier League, five more than any other player for the club.
● No player has been subbed off more in the Premier League this season than West Ham’s Jarrod Bowen (23). The last player to be subbed off more in a single campaign was Pascal Groß in 2017-18 (24).