WEDNESDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews the two Premier League fixture on Wednesday both with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. It’s CHELSEA v BRIGHTON and BRENTFORD v MAN CITY.
CHELSEA V BRIGHTON
7.30pm The Premier League continues on Wednesday and we have two cracking fixtures to enjoy on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. It’s been a tough time for the Premier League over the Christmas period with the Covid19 outbreak in the league, but all four sides playing tonight also played on Boxing Day so we should be OK for both games to go ahead. We kick the evening off with Chelsea hosting Brighton after both sides won on Boxing Day. That was a massive win for Chelsea – they needed to win after a poor run away from home, and they also had to battle back from 1-0 down. With Lukaku also scoring, it was pretty much the perfect evening for Chelsea. Brighton played out a reasonably close game at home to Brentford, but they came out on top 2-0. They joked about the xG figures afterwards on Twitter, calling it a Christmas miracle! It wasn’t that lucky, it was just an even game – they didn’t deserve to lose, but at the same time they only created an xG of 0.85.
That was a big win for Brighton, as it ended a run without a win but I would still be worried about the performance. That being said, they weren’t playing badly on that run – the luck really does even itself out over the course of the season! They deserved to beat Wolves in the last home game before Brentford, they created an xG of 1.84 but lost 1-0. I feel Brighton will give Chelsea a good game here, but ultimately Chelsea will be too strong. That makes the market look pretty much spot on at around the 1.46. I wouldn’t like to back Chelsea at those odds, but they aren’t short enough to lay from a value point of view. With Brighton playing such an open game this season, my mind turns to the goal market here and over 2.5 goals is very appealing at 1.97. I can’t see Brighton sitting back too much here, it’s just not their style of play and Chelsea have been giving away goals recently too. Apart from the Wolves game when they were away from home and played poorly, their recent games have been very open. I’m surprised to see overs as big as 1.97, and we could see a very entertaining game here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.97 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQChebha
● Chelsea have never lost a league game against Brighton, winning 10 and drawing two of their 12 games. It’s the most the Blues have faced an opponent without ever losing in their league history.
● Brighton have never scored in six away league games against Chelsea (D1 L5), with last season’s 0-0 draw their first ever point at Stamford Bridge. In English Football League history, only two sides have ever faced a side more often on the road without scoring – Bradford Park Avenue vs Leyton Orient (8) and Barrow vs Northampton Town (7).
● Having lost eight of their first 12 Premier League away games in London (W2 D2), Brighton have lost just three of their last 13 visits to the capital in the competition (W2 D8).
● Brighton have never led in eight Premier League meetings with Chelsea. In the competition’s history, only two sides have faced another more without leading for a single minute – Sheffield United against Manchester City (10) and Portsmouth against Chelsea (14).
● Chelsea have lost their final league game in just one of the last 18 calendar years (W12 D5), losing 3-1 at home to Aston Villa in 2011.
● Brighton lost their final league game of 2020 (0-1 vs Arsenal), last losing such games in consecutive calendar years in 2011 and 2012.
● Chelsea have shipped five goals in their last four Premier League home games, more than they had in their previous nine combined (4). The Blues haven’t gone five league games without a clean sheet at Stamford Bridge since April 2017.
● Brighton have lost just once away from home in the Premier League this season (W2 D5), having lost each of their last three on the road in the 2020-21 campaign. However, the Seagulls are winless in their last six away league games, having won their first two this season.
● Chelsea have scored 3+ goals in nine different Premier League games so far this season, with only Liverpool (10) doing so more often than the Blues.
● Chelsea midfielder Jorginho has scored 10 Premier League penalties in 2021, a record in a single calendar year in the competition. Meanwhile, of players to have netted at least 10 Premier League goals, the Italian has scored the highest share from the penalty spot (89% – 17/19).
BRENTFORD V MANCHESTER CITY
8.15pm We finish the evening with Brentford hosting Manchester City, with the home side hoping for another excellent home performance. Obviously it’s going to be very difficult to play your usual game against Manchester City – they are an incredible side, but the home form of Brentford this season is pretty damn impressive. They have had a few setbacks results wise, but their performances have been top notch. They have beaten Arsenal, drew with Liverpool and played Chelsea off the park but lost 1-0. The xG figures finished 2.16 to 0.31 to Brentford! Even in the Norwich game here when they lost 2-1, they were exceptionally unlucky and finished the game with an xG of 2.92. Ultimately, Manchester City will more than likely get the job done here but I wouldn’t go lumping on 1.18 on the away win. It’s definitely one to avoid for any BETDAQ Multiples because it’s one of those games where Brentford could cause a shock – most sides would rollover for Manchester City but I feel Brentford will attack them here. That will bring an open game, and could see a big loss for Brentford like Leicester conceding six on Boxing Day – but sitting back doesn’t seem to work against this Manchester City side; you might as well have a go at them.
With City looking so short in the match odds market, we’ll have to look to the side markets for some value here. My mind goes straight to the goals market here, and over 2.5 goals is trading short at 1.53. Plenty of punters are expecting goals here! However, it seems reasonable to suggest most are expecting a heavy Manchester City win given the match odds price, while I feel Brentford can get on the score sheet here. Both Teams To Score looks very good value at 2.46 compared to over 2.5 goals at 1.53. Brentford usually create a good xG figures at home, and as we saw on Boxing Day when Manchester City get a decent lead, they are happy to play an open game. They totally took their foot off the gas wen 4-0 up over Leicester on Boxing Day, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a very end-to-end game here like we saw with Liverpool that finished 3-3. I actually wouldn’t be shocked to see an upset here either, but it’s hard to see anyone stopping City in their current form!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 2.46 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBremci
● The last top-flight meetings between Brentford and Man City were back in 1937-38, with the Bees winning home and away against reigning champions Man City, who were relegated at the end of the campaign.
● This is the first meeting between Brentford and Manchester City in any competition since January 1997, with the Citizens winning an FA Cup match 1-0 at Griffin Park thanks to a Nicky Summerbee strike.
● Brentford have won 50% of their league games against reigning top-flight champions (W5 D3 L2), including two victories against Manchester City in the 1937-38 campaign.
● Manchester City have won their last three away league games against promoted sides by an aggregate score of 11-1. They last won more consecutively against such opponents between December 2009 and November 2011 under Roberto Mancini (6).
● When playing their final league game of a calendar year at home, Brentford haven’t lost since 2005 (0-2 vs Colchester), winning five and drawing three of their eight such games since.
● Manchester City have only lost their final league game in one of the last 20 calendar years (W10 D9), with that defeat coming at Liverpool in 2016.
● After winning just one of their first six Premier League home games (D1 L4), Brentford have won their last two at home in the competition. They last won three in a row at home in the top-flight in February/March 1939.
● Manchester City have lost four of their last 10 Premier League away games against London sides (W5 D1), more than they had in their first 19 visits to the capital under Pep Guardiola (W14 D2 L3).
● Manchester City have scored 112 Premier League goals in 2021 – the last calendar year to see an English top-flight side score more was back in 1960, with Tottenham netting 114 and Wolverhampton Wanderers scoring 113 that year.
● Man City’s Raheem Sterling has scored in each of his last four Premier League appearances, netting five goals in total. He’s never scored in five consecutive games in the competition before.