PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Wednesday’s three Premier League games – all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. It’s BURNLEY v TOTTENHAM, WATFORD v CRYSTAL PALACE and LIVERPOOL v LEEDS.
BURNLEY V TOTTENHAM
7.30pm The eyes of the football world might be on the Champions League tonight, but we have three fascinating Premier League games to enjoy too on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We have two very interesting betting heats, and Liverpool will a chance to close the gap on Manchester City at the top of the table. We start the evening with a huge game for both sides as Burnley host Spurs. After a crazy weekend that has blown the title race and relegation race wide open, this is a huge game for these two. Burnley recorded a huge win over Brighton, and now they have dragged Brentford, Leeds and Everton into the relegation battle just when it looked like the bottom three were getting a little adrift. Burnley are in the strongest position in the bottom three because of their games in hand, but this is one of those and Spurs arrive here buzzing after beating Manchester City at the weekend. That win for Spurs has brought them back into the Top Four race, but they really need to follow that up with a win here and at the weekend too.
Spurs were in such a strong position for that fourth spot a couple of weeks ago, however they let themselves down badly with losses to Southampton and Wolves, and both those games came at top too. You can’t knock their performance away to Manchester City at the weekend though – City might have finished the game with a bigger xG figure but Spurs were excellent. They played about as good as anyone has away to City this season. Obviously the 3-0 win for Burnley over Brighton was always going to take the headlines but they didn’t boss the game and I’m not sure their performance level really changed. One swallow doesn’t make a summer as they say, and I wouldn’t be hyping them up based on that one win. I know Spurs were very average against Southampton and Wolves, but overall they have been solid under Conte and you have to say this is an excellent chance for another three points. The best option is to keep stakes a little limited, but Spurs are good value at 1.87 – I would have them a little shorter to beat this average Burnley side.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Tottenham to beat Burnley at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBurttm
● Burnley have won just one of their last 12 Premier League games against Spurs (D3 L8), winning 2-1 at Turf Moor in February 2019.
● Tottenham have only failed to score in one of their 14 Premier League games against Burnley, a 0-0 draw in April 2015. Meanwhile, they’ve kept eight clean sheets against the Clarets in the competition.
● Tottenham have lost just one of their last 20 Premier League games against sides starting the day in the relegation zone (W15 D4), winning each of the last six in a row. Their only defeat in this run came at home to Newcastle in August 2019.
● Burnley have won just one of their last 20 Premier League home games (D11 L8), beating Brentford 3-1 in October. The Clarets have scored just 15 goals in these 20 matches, failing to score on nine occasions.
● Burnley are looking to secure back-to-back Premier League victories for the first time since January 2021 following their 3-0 win at Brighton last time out. The Clarets netted as many goals in that victory at Brighton as they had in their previous nine league games combined.
● Each of Tottenham’s last three wins in the Premier League have come courtesy of 90th minute winning goals (1-0 v Watford, 3-2 v Leicester, 3-2 v Man City) – they’ve never scored more such goals in a single campaign in the competition (level with 2010-11, 2014-15 and 2016-17).
● Tottenham have won three of their last four Premier League away games, as many as they had in their previous 11 on the road (D4 L4). All five of their away league wins this season have been by a single goal (2x 1-0, 3x 3-2).
● Burnley keeper Nick Pope has conceded 14 goals against Tottenham in the Premier League, only against Manchester City (17) and Chelsea (15) has he conceded more. He’s also yet to keep a clean sheet in his five Premier League games against Spurs – only against Leicester City (7), Manchester City and Chelsea (both 6) has he played more against an opponent without keeping a clean sheet.
● Tottenham’s Harry Kane has either scored or assisted in each of his last six Premier League games against Burnley (7 goals, 3 assists), having scored just once in his first four Premier League appearances against the Clarets.
● Wout Weghorst has had the most shots (9), created the most chances (5) and had the joint-most touches in the opposition box (13) of any Burnley player since his debut for the club. He netted his first goal for the Clarets at Brighton last time out, with each of his last 83 league goals coming from inside the box.
WATFORD V CRYSTAL PALACE
7.30pm Another massive game here with Watford giving themselves a lifeline with a win over Aston Villa at the weekend. As I said above in the Burnley v Spurs game, the Watford and Burnley wins have dragged Brentford, Everton and Leeds into a relegation battle – especially with Newcastle picking up plenty of points recently. Much like the Burnley win, the Watford win over Aston Villa was unexpected but you have to admit they have a fantastic chance to follow that up here facing Crystal Palace, and they have home advantage. You have to feel it’s now or never for Watford – after playing such average football recently and not getting any decent results in big relegation games, they simply must keep the winning run going here! They are away to Manchester United at the weekend, and although United haven’t been at their best recently, this is the game where they pick up points rather than in Old Trafford. Crystal Palace have only picked up nine points from their twelve away games this season, and they currently sit in the bottom five on away form.
I do feel that Palace a little short here at 2.48. I know Watford have been very average this season, but I just expect a closer game than those odds suggest. As I said above, the away record of Palace is very poor this season but before you lay them – the Watford home record is worse! Watford are rock bottom on the Premier League home form table with just seven points from twelve games, and that’s the main reason why they are in the relegation zone. I’m not sure being at home is “advantage” to Watford, as it usual is to teams fighting to stay up! Palace didn’t play badly at the weekend in a 1-0 loss to Chelsea but they have been struggling to score goals recently. Watford have hardly set the world on fire in that department either as we all know, and while I do feel the 2.48 is a little short on Palace I would rather a small investment on the draw here at 3.35. I can only see a very close game here, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it finish 0-0 either.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.35 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWatcry
● Watford have won four of their last six meetings with Crystal Palace in all competitions (D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 20 against them. They’ve already won a home match against the Eagles this season, winning 1-0 in the League Cup second round.
● After winning their first Premier League away game against Watford 1-0 in September 2015, Crystal Palace have failed to win any of their last four visits to Vicarage Road in the competition (D3 L1).
● None of the seven victories in Premier League games between Crystal Palace and Watford have been by more than a one-goal margin – it’s the most victories a Premier League fixture has seen without any of them being by more than one goal.
● Watford have conceded at least once in each of their last 17 Premier League home games – no team has ever failed to keep a clean sheet in 18 consecutive home matches in the competition. The last top-flight side to do so were Blackpool, who went 20 top-flight home games without a shutout between April 1971 and April 2011 (17 in the Premier League).
● Crystal Palace have won just once away from home in the Premier League this season and are winless in seven on the road (D4 L3) since beating Man City 2-0 in October. They’ve drawn their last three away league games, last having a longer such run in the top-flight between December 1991 and February 1992 (5).
● Watford have kept as many clean sheets in their four Premier League games under Roy Hodgson (2) as they had in their 36 previous top-flight games combined. The Hornets are looking to secure back-to-back top-flight victories for the first time since July 2020.
● Only Norwich City (15) have failed to score in more different Premier League games than Watford this season (12). The Hornets haven’t managed to score more than once in any of their last 11 league games (6 goals in total) since a 4-2 loss to Leicester in November.
● Watford manager Roy Hodgson took charge of 148 Premier League games at Crystal Palace between 2017 and 2021, more than any other manager for the Eagles in the competition. This will be his 30th Premier League game against a side he’s previously managed in the competition (W12 D5 L12), already more than any other manager has done.
● Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has been directly involved in 13 goals in his last 16 Premier League away games against promoted sides, scoring eight and assisting five. This will be Zaha’s first Premier League game against former manager Roy Hodgson; Zaha has appeared in more of Hodgson’s starting XIs than anyone else in the Premier League (127) and is the top scorer (34) in the competition under him.
● Emmanuel Dennis has been involved in 58% of Watford’s 24 Premier League goals this season (9 goals, 5 assists), the highest ratio of any player in the competition this term. He’s looking to become just the fourth different Watford player to score 10+ goals in a Premier League campaign, after Troy Deeney (3 times), Odion Ighalo (2015-16) and Gerard Deulofeu (2018-19).
LIVERPOOL V LEEDS
7.45pm We finish the evening with another massive game as Liverpool host Leeds. Nearly everyone will be expecting a Liverpool win here and they are currently trading as short as 1.18 at the time of writing. This game is huge for both sides for different reasons after the results at the weekend. With Spurs beating Manchester City, Liverpool can close the gap to three points with a win here as this is their game in hand – goal difference might come into it too and at the moment Liverpool are two goals behind Manchester City. What better side than Leeds to play to improve your goal difference you might say! While most football fans won’t be expecting a result for Leeds here, they have been dragged into the relegation battle with the wins from Burnley and Watford at the weekend so now every game and every point is massive for them. The wins for the sides in the bottom three couldn’t have come at a worst time really as Leeds have to play Liverpool tonight, Spurs the weekend and then they are away to Leicester after that – they also still have to play Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal before the end of the season! Those games against Norwich, Watford and possibly Brentford on the final day will be massive for them.
Given all the issues Leeds have at the back, it’s close to impossible to see anything bar a Liverpool win here. I feel the question is how many goals do they score rather than will they win. Not only do Leeds have problems at the back, Liverpool arrive into this fixture in top form. It will be really interesting to see do Manchester City drop further points, because Liverpool have superb momentum at the moment. They are playing superb football, scoring goals and creating a host of chances. You look through their recent xG figures and see figures like 3.51, 2.17 and 3.30. They controlled the Champions League game against Inter Milan too, and Leeds arrive to Anfield having conceded ten goals in three games! The 4-2 loss to Manchester United at the weekend was thrilling, but to lose 3-0 to Everton is very disappointing. Liverpool are pretty short to cover the handicaps here, as short as 1.45 on the 1.5 goal handicap so I feel the best play here is over 3.5 goals at 1.74. These two only know how to play an open game and we could see an incredible end-to-end game like just Leeds v Manchester United at the weekend. Overs also allows for Liverpool to rack up the goals.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 3.5 goals at 1.74 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLvllee
● Liverpool have won their last three Premier League home games against Leeds, netting 10 goals in the process. They last won more consecutively against them at Anfield in the league between 1973 and 1978 (6).
● Leeds have lost both Premier League meetings with Liverpool in a season on four previous occasions (1996-97, 1997-98, 1999-00 and 2002-03). Only in 1996-97 did the Whites fail to score in either meeting with the Reds in a season in the competition.
● Liverpool have only failed to score in one of their last 23 meetings with Leeds in all competitions, netting in each of their last 16 in a row since a goalless draw in April 1999.
● Liverpool will face Leeds on a Wednesday for the first time since February 1997, when they won 4-0 in a Premier League match and were 3-0 ahead at half-time. They have won their last five against the Whites in games played on Wednesdays by an aggregate score of 13-0, since Leeds won 2-0 in an FA Cup fourth round replay in February 1972, with Allan Clarke scoring a brace at Elland Road.
● Liverpool are the only side unbeaten at home in the Premier League this season (W9 D3), and have conceded a league-low seven goals at Anfield so far this term.
● Liverpool are averaging 19.3 shots per game in the Premier League this season, their highest ratio in a single campaign since 2012-13 (19.4). The Reds are also averaging seven shots on target per game in the Premier League this term; since we have the data available (1997-98), only two teams have averaged more across an entire campaign – Arsenal in 1999-00 (7.4) and Chelsea in 2009-10 (7.6).
● Leeds have conceded at least twice in each of their last five Premier League away games, shipping 18 goals in total – as many as they had in their previous 14 on the road. The Whites’ last two away games have finished 3-3 and 0-3, with Leeds last conceding 3+ goals in three consecutive top-flight away games in November 2003 (a run of four).
● Leeds are one of just two sides to have conceded at least 50 Premier League goals this season, along with Norwich City. The Whites have conceded at least three goals in their last three Premier League games, last doing so in four consecutive league games in March 1960.
● Mohamed Salah’s goal against Norwich last time out was his 63rd for Liverpool at Anfield in the Premier League, putting him level with Michael Owen. Only Robbie Fowler (85) and Steven Gerrard (69) have scored more home goals for the Reds in the competition than the Egyptian.
● Virgil van Dijk has never lost a Premier League home game at Liverpool, winning 50 and drawing eight of his 58 games at Anfield with the Reds in the competition. If he plays and Liverpool avoid defeat here, it will equal Lee Sharpe’s Manchester United record for most Premier League home games at a specific club without ever losing (59 – W47 D12).