PREMIER LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Striker previews Wednesday’s Premier League games with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
ARSENAL V ASTON VILLA
7.30pm We have another cracking evening in the Premier League on Wednesday! We have three big home favourites, and then two away sides trading 2.0 or bigger on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We start the evening with one of those home favourites as Arsenal host Aston Villa. Arsenal fans have really gone into overdrive after their start to the season, but you can forgive them after the weekend. They went 1-0 down against Fulham with a horrendous error at the back, but battled back to win 2-1. Old Arsenal would have probably folded and dropped point, but there is a bit of backbone about this side. There’s no reason why they can’t make this five wins from five games however against a poor Aston Villa side. Long-term readers will know I’m not a fan of this Aston Villa side – their underlining numbers are very poor in my opinion and they are a side to be against in general this season. They are too good to go down of course, but they are going to hang around that 14th position again this season. In my view, Steven Gerrard hasn’t improved them since coming in and I think their xG figures show that. With Arsenal full of confidence I don’t see them having any issues here – the 1.49 actually looks ten ticks too big in my opinion.
I’ll happily include the 1.49 in any Betdaq Multiple today! This is exactly the type of fixture that Arsenal tend to do very well in too, even when they weren’t at their best over the last number of years. Villa haven’t got the talent to press them and put them under pressure on the ball, and when that happens Arsenal usually play very well. Villa have only managed to created xG figures of 0.69, 2.37, 1.0 and 0.39 this season. That 2.37 stands out, because it came at home against Everton who have been very poor lately too, and look like they are heading for a relegation battle again. Compare that to the Arsenal xG figures this season of 1.49, 3.15, 1.69 and 2.21. Their best two coming at home as well, and while they have had an easy start to the season on paper, I believe this is an easy fixture for them too. I’m still staying to my views of Arsenal not being a side you want to have a Max Bet on, but the 1.49 is worth a very confident bet. That price is too big to turn down.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Arsenal to beat Aston Villa at 1.49 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsAst
● Arsenal have won eight of their last 11 Premier League games against Aston Villa (L3), including both meetings last term. Those three defeats all came consecutively between July 2020 and February 2021.
● Aston Villa have won four of their 13 Premier League games against Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium, with only Chelsea and Manchester City (6 each) winning more often at the ground than the Villans.
● Each of the last 10 league games between Arsenal and Aston Villa at the Emirates Stadium have produced at least three goals. In Premier League history, only one specific fixture has produced 3+ goals on 11 consecutive occasions – Manchester City hosting Newcastle between September 2007 and July 2020.
● Arsenal have lost just one of their last eight Premier League games on Wednesdays (W6 D1), going down 2-0 at home to Liverpool in March. However, overall in the Premier League the Gunners have won 48% of their games played on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays (93/194).
● Aston Villa have won just one of their last 10 Premier League games on a Wednesday (D3 L6), winning 2-1 at Spurs in May 2021.
● Aston Villa have lost their last three away Premier League matches, last losing four in a row in league football between April and August 2017 in the Championship under Steve Bruce.
● Arsenal are the only Premier League side still with a 100% record this season, winning their opening four games. The Gunners have only started three previous top-flight seasons with a run of five wins, doing so in 1930-31 (finished 1st), 1947-48 (finished 1st) and 2004-05 (finished 2nd).
● Arsenal have won their last five home Premier League matches, last enjoying a longer winning run at the Emirates between November 2018 and April 2019 (10 in a row). The Gunners are looking to win their first three home league matches in a season for the first time since 2017-18.
● As a player, Aston Villa manager Steven Gerrard won just one of his 12 away Premier League matches against Arsenal (D5 L6), with that coming in February 2000 with Liverpool. He played more matches at the Emirates without winning than any other ground in his Premier League playing career (six – D3 L3).
● Bukayo Saka – who turns 21 on September 5th – has registered 16 Premier League assists so far for Arsenal. Only three players have more Premier League assists before their 21st birthday: Cesc Fàbregas (38), Wayne Rooney (22) and Michael Owen (18).
BOURNEMOUTH V WOLVES
7.30pm Bournemouth host Wolves next, and this is an interesting market. Given there are a lot of big games tonight, it’s easy for this one to get lost in between all the action but it is a fascinating game in its own right. Bournemouth got hammered 9-0 by Liverpool at the weekend which is obviously an embarrassing score line; however Liverpool are going to hammer a lot of sides at Anfield this season – Bournemouth just have to get on with it. In that sense, having a home fixture against Wolves is a good step. You would have to say that they have a decent chance of getting a result here – even from a betting point of view Wolves are odds against to win, so Bournemouth are odds on to get a result. You wouldn’t class a draw as a bad result for Bournemouth here, but probably in the grand scheme of things over the course of the full season this is probably a game where they have to win to stay up. Wolves have been very poor this season, and they finished last season poorly too – you can see why they are in the relegation talk, but they are probably too good to actually be in a relegation battle.
It wasn’t so long ago that Wolves were in the mix for the European spots – they used to grind out a lot of results but they have lost that ability due to conceding too many chances. Given how limited they are going forward, you can see why they have major issues. They have conceded xG figures of 1.15, 1.70, 1.48 and 2.10. You could say too that apart from Spurs, they haven’t played a big sides either. I know Newcastle have improved, indeed Wolves were lucky to pick up a draw against them even with home advantage, but then they have played Leeds and Fulham – two sides who have played OK at the start of the season, but were in the relegation discussion! I can see big issues for Wolves this season, and although Bournemouth have had a tough run of things, I do feel it’s a value play to be against Wolves here. Bournemouth have been hammered by Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool but is that a surprise really? They are miles off that level – that could actually be the top three this season – and I expect Bournemouth to do much better here.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Wolves to beat Bournemouth at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouWol
● Bournemouth have lost just one of their five home league games against Wolves (W2 D2), though it was their last such meeting in November 2019 (1-2).
● Wolves are unbeaten in all four of their Premier League meetings with Bournemouth (W3 D1), last losing against the Cherries in the 2014-15 Championship campaign.
● Wolves have lost just three of their last 22 Premier League games against promoted sides (W13 D6), with two of those three defeats coming in home games.
● Bournemouth have shipped 16 Premier League goals in their first four games this season, the most by a side at this stage of a top-flight campaign since 1963-64 (Arsenal, 16). Only two sides in top-flight history have conceded more than 16 goals in the month of August in a campaign: Sunderland in 1953 (17) and Newcastle in 1999 (18).
● Wolves have won just one of their last seven Premier League games on a Wednesday (D3 L3), though that win did come on the south coast, beating Brighton 2-1 in December 2021.
● Bournemouth suffered a 3-0 defeat in their last home Premier League match against Arsenal; the Cherries have never lost consecutive home league games under Scott Parker, last doing so in their final two home games in 2020-21 under Jonathan Woodgate.
● Wolves have picked up only one point in their last six away Premier League matches (D1 L5), losing their last three in a row. They last had a longer losing run on the road in the top-flight between September and December 2011 (six in a row).
● Wolves haven’t lost their first three away league matches in a season since 2003-04 in the Premier League, going on to finish bottom. Indeed, they have been relegated in the last three campaigns when they’ve started with three away defeats (also 1983-84 and 1985-86).
● Wolves’ Raúl Jiménez has scored in all four of his Premier League appearances against Bournemouth – no player has a better 100% scoring ratio against an opponent in the competition.
● In Premier League history, among managers to take charge of at least 10 home games, only Daniel Farke (0.67) has a lower points-per-game than Bournemouth’s Scott Parker (0.70), who has won five, drawn four and lost 18 of his 27 home games in charge of Fulham and the Cherries.
MANCHESTER CITY V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
7.30pm Liverpool took all the headlines at the weekend with a 9-0 win over Bournemouth, and we could easily see a similar score line here as Manchester City host Nottingham Forest. The market can’t see past a home win here with City trading as short as 1.1 at the time of writing. To be honest it’s extremely difficult to see anything bar a City win here – I feel this is just a case of how many goals can they score rather than will they win. In the grand scheme of things, I don’t think Forest will be unhappy with four points from their opening four games. They were totally outplayed by Newcastle on the opening weekend and you might have been a little worried about them, but they bounced back with a win against West Ham and a draw away to Everton. Both times they conceded a bigger xG than they created, but when you are just trying to stay in the Premier League you have to get results in an ugly fashion. They were outplayed by Spurs at the weekend, but that’s nothing that was unexpected to be honest. Obviously the focus here will be the goal and handicap markets will City so short in the match odds market.
While City will be fully expected to win this game and score plenty of goals, they have given away quite a few goals lately. They went 2-0 down against Crystal Palace at the weekend before coming back to win, and then they also went 3-1 down against Newcastle before coming back to draw 3-3. Guardiola sets his side up to attack with the attitude of “we’ll score more than you” but that doesn’t always work. It will be very interesting to see how City perform, and the result, when they come up against the top sides. You can see why they have thrown away winning situation in the Champions League – they do need a system where they can “shut up shop” at some stage. There is definitely a time and place to park the bus! They won’t have that issue tonight however, and this should be a straightforward task for City. Given the market is expecting so many goals, I was surprised to see City -2.5 goals trading as high as 1.67. That definitely stands out here – it’s around 1.6 that both teams don’t score which is a City clean sheet really, so they should be able to cover the 2.5 goal handicap with ease.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester City -2.5 goals to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.67 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciNot
● This is the first meeting in any competition between Man City and Nottingham Forest since January 2009, with Forest winning an FA Cup tie 3-0 at the Etihad Stadium.
● Man City are unbeaten in their last four league games against Nottingham Forest (W3 D1), with this their first such meeting since a 3-0 win in March 2002, courtesy of a Darren Huckerby hat-trick.
● Man City have won just one of their six Premier League meetings with Nottingham Forest (D3 L2), though this is the first such meeting since December 1995. In fact, the last time Nottingham Forest were in the Premier League in 1998-99, Manchester City were in the third tier of English football.
● Nottingham Forest have lost their last six Premier League games against the reigning champions by an aggregate score of 23-3. Their last such win was in December 1994 at Manchester United, with that 2-1 victory Man Utd’s only home league defeat that season, accounting for 50% of the goals they conceded at Old Trafford that term.
● Manchester City have won their last 20 Premier League games on a Wednesday – victory here would equal the competition’s record for most consecutive wins on a specific day of the week, currently held by Liverpool with 21 straight Saturday victories between November 2018 and February 2020.
● Nottingham Forest haven’t conceded more than twice in any of their last 73 away league matches, since a 3-0 defeat at Sheffield Wednesday in April 2019. In the entire history of the Football League, only Plymouth Argyle between February 2015 and May 2018 have had a longer run without conceding three goals in an away league game (77 in a row).
● Manchester City have found themselves two goals behind in four of their last six Premier League games, as many as in their previous 84 combined. They are the only side in Premier League history to avoid defeat in four games in a row in which they found themselves 2+ goals behind.
● Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne has been involved in 20 goals in his last 20 Premier League appearances against promoted sides, scoring seven and assisting 13. At the Etihad, the Belgian has been involved in 18 goals in 16 such games overall (7 goals, 11 assists).
● Erling Haaland has scored six goals in his first four Premier League appearances for Manchester City, with only Diego Costa (7) netting more after four matches in the competition. The record for goals in a player’s first five games is held jointly by Mick Quinn and Sergio Agüero (8).
● Brennan Johnson has been involved in seven goals in his last nine away matches in all competitions for Nottingham Forest (5 goals, 2 assists), scoring at Everton in their last away Premier League game. The only player aged 21 to score in consecutive away Premier League appearances for Forest is Roy Keane in December 1992.
WEST HAM V TOTTENHAM
7.45pm We have a London Derby next as West Ham host Spurs. This should be a good game, and I’m sure West Ham fans were happy to see their side notch up their first win of the season against Aston Villa at the weekend. You’d still have to be a little worried about the performance – they only created an xG of 0.45 in a very tight game but it was good to see them still grind out a win against a very average Aston Villa side. With Spurs in fantastic form at the start of the season and playing some lovely football under Conte – I am surprised to see them trading odds against here at 2.04. I felt they would be odds on before clicking into the market – I know West Ham have made a lot of improvement under David Moyes over the past two season – at times they have even “challenged” for the Top Four at certain stages of the season, but they have started slowly. You can obviously forgive them their opening loss of the season against Manchester City but since then they have only created xG figures of 2.65 v Nottingham Forest, 0.95 v Brighton and 0.45 v Aston Villa. The Forest game stands out, but they still conceded 2.19 and lost, and they are a newly promoted side.
With Spurs playing very well at the moment and looking full of confidence, I feel this game is there for the taking for them. They actually started the season in a bit of a panic as they went 1-0 down against Southampton but since then it has been plain sailing. They recovered to hammer them 4-1 and apart from the 2-2 draw against Chelsea they have controlled every game. Their xG figures read 2.02, 1.58, 1.48 and 2.23. Even the Chelsea draw would have felt like a win given the way it happened so late in the game – remember even Harry Kane said afterwards in an interview he was delighted to score the “winning goal” in the 2-2 draw! I can understand where the market is coming from in the sense that this is a London Derby, West Ham have home advantage and they have played nice football over the course of the last two season, but I feel everything lines up here for a Spurs win. West Ham look a little off the pace and aren’t creating enough to trouble this in-form Spurs side. At a price of 2.06, I’m happy to have a Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Tottenham to beat West Ham at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WesTot
● West Ham have won their last two Premier League home games against Tottenham, last winning more consecutively between February 1997 and August 1999 (4).
● Tottenham have won 25 of their 52 Premier League games against West Ham, only beating Everton (28) and Manchester City (27) more often in the competition.
● West Ham were one of only two sides to score in all 19 of their home Premier League games last season, along with Liverpool, but haven’t scored in their opening two home games this season. They have never failed to score in their opening three home league games in a season before, last failing in three consecutive home Premier League games in general in December 2008 at Upton Park.
● Tottenham have won 99 Premier League London derby matches and could be the third side to reach 100 victories after Chelsea and Arsenal. Meanwhile, West Ham (112) have lost more such matches than any other side.
● West Ham have lost just one of their last seven Premier League matches played on Wednesday (W3 D3), going down 2-0 at Arsenal last December. They had lost six of their previous eight such Wednesday matches before this (W2).
● West Ham United have lost their last two home Premier League games, last losing three in a row in their final four at the London Stadium under Manuel Pellegrini in November/December 2019. The Hammers have never lost their opening three home league games in a season.
● Only Carlton Cole (14) and Manuel Lanzini (13) have scored more Premier League goals for West Ham in Premier League London derbies than Michail Antonio (12) – half of these have come in 11 appearances against Tottenham, including netting once in each of his last three against them at the London Stadium.
● Tottenham striker Harry Kane has been involved in seven goals in his last six Premier League games against West Ham, scoring four and assisting three. Overall, he’s netted 11 goals against them in the competition, with only Wayne Rooney (14) and Michael Owen (13) scoring more against the Hammers.
● Tottenham’s Son Heung-min has been involved in eight goals in his last eight Premier League games against West Ham (5 goals, 3 assists), though just two of these have come at West Ham’s ground (1 goal, 1 assist in November 2019).
● Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored nine goals in 26 Premier League games played on Wednesdays. Having already scored 10+ on Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, he could become just the second player to reach double figures on five different days of the week, after Alan Shearer.
LIVERPOOL V NEWCASTLE
8pm We finish the evening with Liverpool hosting Newcastle – we’ve had some brilliant memories of this fixture down through years and hopefully this will be another one! You have to go back a few years, but this used to be a cracking fixture. Obviously Newcastle have had their issues, but with their new riches backing them they should be able to trouble the big sides again – they have even managed to pick up a draw against Manchester City already. Liverpool finally got their act together with a 9-0 win over Bournemouth at the weekend, that was badly needed after their start to the season. While they had to settle for draws against Fulham and Crystal Palace, they didn’t play badly so it was nothing to worry about in that sense. The loss at Old Trafford was probably more worrying because they were outplayed by a “lazy” Manchester United side. Confidence will be restored after the 9-0 win, but they have to follow that up here. The market is expect a pretty smooth Liverpool win with the home side trading 1.34 at the time of writing, there is a gulf in class between the sides here but that price does feel short considering Newcastle are unbeaten this season.
Prior to this weekend, I was a little worried about Newcastle away from home because they were totally outplayed by Brighton. They claimed a 0-0 draw but conceded an xG of 1.97. They were lucky to pick up that draw, but then they were unlucky not to beat Wolves away at the weekend. They finished the game with an xG of 2.10 and should have won the game. Put that together with the 3-3 against Manchester City and the smooth 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest and Newcastle haven’t really done much wrong this season. The market is expecting goals here with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.53, but Newcastle have shown enough that they can score here. While I feel Liverpool are a little short in the match odds market, I don’t think they are short enough to lay, and Both Teams To Score looks a very nice option at 1.9.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivNew
● Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 26 Premier League home games against Newcastle (W21 D5), since a 2-0 loss in April 1994. The Reds have scored in all 26 of these games.
● Newcastle are winless in 11 Premier League games against Liverpool (D4 L7), since a 2-0 home win in December 2015 under Steve McClaren.
● Liverpool have scored more Premier League goals against Newcastle (109) than they have against any other opponent. Meanwhile, only against Manchester United (113) have Newcastle conceded more goals in the competition than they have against Liverpool.
● Liverpool have won 10 of their last 11 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games, winning each of the last six by an aggregate score of 18-2 since a 1-0 loss at Leicester in December 2021.
● Newcastle have won their last two Premier League games on a Wednesday, having won just one of their previous 24 such matches (D5 L18).
● After scoring just four goals in their first three Premier League games this season, Liverpool won 9-0 last time out against Bournemouth, equalling their biggest ever top-flight win (also 9-0 vs Crystal Palace in 1989). They also scored five times in the first half of a top-flight game for the first time since 1927 against Portsmouth.
● Mohamed Salah has scored in all five of his Premier League home games for Liverpool against Newcastle. The only player with a better 100% home scoring record for a club against an opponent is former Man City striker Sergio Agüero, who scored in all seven of his games at the Etihad against Liverpool.
● Newcastle manager Eddie Howe has lost his last eight Premier League matches against Liverpool since a 2-2 draw at Anfield with Bournemouth in April 2017. Only Gary Megson, between 1995 and 2009, has ever lost nine consecutive Premier League matches against Liverpool as a manager.
● Roberto Firmino was involved in five goals in Liverpool’s 9-0 win over Bournemouth (2 goals, 3 assists), one more than in his previous 16 Premier League games combined (1 goal, 3 assists). Firmino is one of only five players to have assisted three goals in two different Premier League games (also vs Southampton in 2020), along with Eyal Berkovic, Thierry Henry, Cesc Fàbregas and Dusan Tadic.
● Since his first Premier League appearance at Anfield in February, no Liverpool player has more home Premier League goals than Luis Díaz (6 in 10 games). In Premier League history, only Fernando Torres (9) has scored more Premier League goals in his first 10 home appearances for the Reds.