PREMIER LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Striker previews Wednesday’s busy Premier League fixture list including MAN U v SPURS – all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats via FACTMAN.
BOURNEMOUTH V SOUTHAMPTON
7.30pm The midweek Premier League action continues on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with a very busy Wednesday night! It’s a shame we lost Arsenal v Man City tonight, especially after the results at the weekend, but Arsenal have to play in the Europa League on Thursday so that fixture was postponed tonight. We still have five fascinating fixtures to get through though, and we have some very competitive betting heats. Manchester United v Spurs is the highlight fixture later on, but we start the evening with a huge relegation battle as Bournemouth host Southampton. Even so early in the season this is a real relegation six pointer – both sides are well fancied in the betting markets to go down this season, but at the moment they aren’t doing too badly. Since Bournemouth seemingly hit the panic button and sacked Scott Parker they have gone on a six game unbeaten run. They started the midweek round of fixtures sitting in 10th and although they are still marginally odds on to go down this season, I think they will be delighted with their start to the season. You have to say that they have a real fighting chance of staying up now which you wouldn’t have said a couple of weeks ago.
This is a huge game for both sides because not only does the winner receive a big boost, it’s also a massive blow to the loser. Even though Bournemouth are trading shorter than Southampton to go down, it is Southampton who are sitting in the bottom three. The Saints managed to grind out a welcome 1-1 draw at the weekend at home to West Ham – they were lucky because they conceded an xG of 2.05 but at least that ended a run of four defeats. After beating Chelsea and playing well previously against Manchester United it looked like Southampton might not be in trouble this season, but three losses to average sides like Wolves, Aston Villa and Everton leaves them under immense pressure coming here. As you would expect, we have a very open market. Indeed both sides are trading at very similar prices, it’s only by very small margins but Southampton are trading as favourites and I don’t agree with that. We have two average sides here, but Bournemouth are playing with confidence and have home advantage – they should be favourites in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Southampton to beat Bournemouth at 2.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouSou
BRENTFORD V CHELSEA
7.30pm We have another very interesting market here as Brentford host Chelsea. After beating Aston Villa at the weekend, Chelsea have now put together a winning run of five games in all competitions. Included in that run was two games at home and away to AC Milan in the Champions League which is obviously impressive – but their xG figures from the weekend are still a little worrying. We all know that Aston Villa have been playing average football this season, and Chelsea conceded an xG of 2.65 to them at the weekend. They were exceptionally lucky to win 2-0 in the end, and at the start of that winning run they weren’t fantastic away to Crystal Palace either. Obviously confidence will be high in the Chelsea camp off the back of his run, especially with a new manager, but I have to say the jury is still out for me on Potter at Chelsea. I keep coming back to the question of “is he an improvement on Tuchel?” It’s a difficult question to answer, and I suppose only time will tell. This should be an interesting game because Brentford are a very good side at home – they played some excellent football here last season but didn’t get the results they deserved. A classic example was actually the Chelsea game here last season – Brentford lost 1-0 but created an xG of 2.16 and only conceded 0.31!
It was a shame we didn’t land our Over 2.5 goals bet on Friday night in the Brentford v Brighton game because the game was so open. Brentford won 2-0 but the game finished 1.81 to 2.03 on xG – there could have easily been five goals never mind three! I would expect Brentford to play another open game here, and that will suit Chelsea to be honest. In the match odds market, Chelsea look a little short at 1.78 given their recent performance level away from home in the Premier League. I know they are winning games, but they are still conceding a lot of chances. This should be a very end-to-end game, and Over 2.5 goals stands out as the value bet at 1.88 in what should be a very entertaining game. Brentford deserve a bit of luck after what happened against Chelsea here last season, so let’s see what happens!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreChe
LIVERPOOL V WEST HAM
7.30pm We go to Anfield next as Liverpool host West Ham. Liverpool will be buzzing after beating Manchester City 1-0 at the weekend. As I said in my preview of that game, Liverpool might have dropped a lot of points already this season but they will still see City as their biggest rivals. With City in such good form heading into that game, Liverpool did really well to hold them to an xG of just 1.14 while creating 2.44 themselves. You can’t knock that performance, and they deserved to win the game. Virgil can Dijk put in an immense display at the back, and that’s what Liverpool have been missing this season. As Roy Keane said afterwards; it’s “his job” to do that every week and not just in the big games. The truth is Liverpool have conceded way too many sloppy goals this season, and it will be interesting to see how they follow up that performance so quickly against a mid-table side here. West Ham won’t fear this Liverpool side and they have been creating some nice xG figures recently. They have had a relatively easy fixture list though – they have played Wolves, Fulham and Southampton in their last three so obviously this is a big jump up in class. Liverpool are rightfully favourites, but the 1.46 doesn’t make much appeal.
Despite that big win at the weekend, Liverpool are still a whopping 14 points off league leaders Arsenal. All Arsenal fans would have been cheering on Liverpool the weekend! Although it was a much improved performance from Liverpool, one game doesn’t change much and it will be a little while before I am comfortable backing them at low prices. In that sense we have avoided any losses on Liverpool this season, and I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market again here. Over 2.5 goals is my selection at 1.59. West Ham have been a little unlucky this season because they have a much higher average xG than actual goals scored and they are conceding chances too. Liverpool only really know one way to play and that’s a very open game so I can see this being a very end-to-end game with plenty of chances. I’d have Over 2.5 goals closer to 1.5 rather than the current 1.6 and it looks a solid bet.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivWes
NEWCASTLE V EVERTON
7.30pm We finished the four 7-30pm games with Newcastle hosting Everton. Newcastle grinded out a draw at the weekend away to Manchester United, they’d have to be happy with that and the xG figures were reasonably close too. There was drama of course with the Ronaldo “goal” that wasn’t given but in general Newcastle would have to be happy with their performance. Everton have had a reasonably tough fixture list having had to play Spurs and Manchester United in their last two games and they were outplayed twice. They have another tough fixture here because Newcastle have been playing fantastic football this season. They haven’t got the results to reflect how good they were – for example they had to settle for draws against Wolves, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth having dominated those games. They finally took their chances against Fulham and Brentford, scoring nine goals across those two games and if they can keep their recent perform level then they should have no trouble winning here. Newcastle’s average xG in the Premier League this season is 2.0 after the weekend which you have to say is very impressive – it appears things are moving in the right direction for Newcastle which I suppose isn’t a surprise given the money behind them now.
After being in the relegation battle last season, Everton are definitely an improved side this season. They are too good to be involved in the relegation battle this season, but they are still an average side. They will likely finish around 14th or thereabouts but there won’t be any drama with fans running onto the pitch this season! I always wonder what’s better; finishing around 12th with no drama or staying up in the final few games of the season – surely the latter gets the blood pumping more! When you look at Everton’s stats they have been doing much better than they should this season, which is surely a worry. They are conceding 1.1 goals per game at the moment, but the xG says that should be 1.9. It won’t be long until teams start taking their chances against this Everton side and then they will have trouble on their hands. Newcastle look a nice bet here at 1.68 – pretty much everything points to a Newcastle win here and I’m happy to have a Max Bet at the odds.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Newcastle to beat Everton at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewEve
MANCHESTER UNITED V TOTTENHAM
8.15pm The Premier League have saved the best until last this evening as Manchester United host Spurs. This is a fascinating fixture, and comes at a very important time for both sides. United are still finding their feet at the moment under ten Hag and they didn’t play great at the weekend here against Newcastle. It’s fair to say that Newcastle have been playing good football this season so we won’t judge United too harshly, indeed we landed a confident lay on United, but it’s probably a sign of the times when they aren’t “expected” to beat sides like Newcastle at home. For Spurs, they are in a similar position to United but not quite as bad. They have put a few wins together after losing the North London Derby to Arsenal recently and I suppose they are trying to figure out what their plan is for this season. At the moment they are four points behind Arsenal; are they “real” title challengers or are they happy with finishing in the Top Four? It definitely looks like they can finish above Chelsea this season, but then we also have Liverpool who will surely make a charge at the Top Four at some point. It’s fair to say that if there is a loser to this game then that will be a big setback for the club, and it will be interesting to see what XI and what tactics ten Hag goes with. Does he start Ronaldo? Does Ronaldo’s style of play even work in ten Hag’s system?
For Spurs and Conte, things are a little bit more simply. Conte knows what this squad is like now, and although they throw in the odd poor display they have been generally consistent recently. I have to say though they haven’t been fantastic away from home recently – even though they beat Brighton 1-0 they finished the game with a lower xG figure, and it was the same in the 1-1 draw away to West Ham, and obviously in-between those two games they were outplayed in the North London Derby. The only thing you would say about this fixture is that United are hardly setting the world on fire at home and it’s not a surprise to see a very open market here. United are the favourites at 2.52, and to be honest I would have them a little bigger in the market. Spurs have been a lot more solid this season, but I fully accept their performances away from home haven’t been as good. I feel we’ll see a very close game here, and I’m happy to have a small bet on the draw at 3.65. It wouldn’t be surprise to see another 0-0 at Old Trafford!
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunTot