THE STRIKER: previews the Premier League games on Wednesday with extended stats and recommended BETDAQ bets. The action starts at 6pm with BURNLEY v MAN CITY and FULHAM v LEICESTER. The 7.30pm kick off is LEEDS v EVERTON and there are two games at 8.15pm ASTON VILLA v WEST HAM and LIVERPOOL v BRIGHTON.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
BURNLEY V MANCHESTER CITY
6pm We have another busy evening ahead in the Premier League as the fixtures just keep on coming! We start with Burnley hosting Manchester City who are trading the shortest price of any side this week as they trade 1.25 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. City have been absolutely excellent in recent weeks and it’s no surprise to anyone looking at xG figures that they have gone clear at the top of the table. With Liverpool struggling, City have a clear run at the title now – although they have to play each other at the weekend! Burnley have got out of the bottom three with a good run of results over the last two months, but this should be one way traffic.
Burnley were very poor against Chelsea at the weekend when losing 2-0, only creating an xG of 0.14 and they were very lucky to beat Aston Villa a couple of days prior. City finally scored a handful of goals when beating West Brom 5-0 last week, and although they only scored once against Sheffield United at the weekend; they still dominated the game and their xG figures have been very impressive lately. Even in the 2-0 win over Aston Villa, xG was 3.72. I can’t see Burnley living with City here and I like City to cover the two goal Asian Handicap (stakes void if they win by two) at 2.04.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester City -2 goals Asian Handicap to beat Burnley at 2.04 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbrnmci
- Burnley are winless in nine Premier League meetings with Man City (D1 L8) since a 1-0 home win in March 2015. The Clarets have conceded more Premier League goals against the Citizens than they have versus any other side (39).
- Manchester City have won their last seven meetings with Burnley in all competitions by an aggregate score of 28-1, including 5-0 (Premier League) and 3-0 (League Cup) victories against the Clarets this season.
- Burnley have won four of their last six home league games (D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 16 at Turf Moor (D4 L8).
- Manchester City have won each of their last three Premier League away games, having won just two of their first six on the road this season (D3 L1). They’ve netted eight goals across their last two away games (3-1 v Chelsea, 5-0 v West Brom), one more than they had in their first seven this term.They’ve netted eight goals across their last two away league games (3-1 v Chelsea, 5-0 v West Brom), one more than they had in their first seven this term.
- Manchester City are looking to become the first Premier League side since Arsenal between March and August 2002 to win 13 consecutive matches in all competitions.
- Man City are looking to win seven consecutive away matches in all competitions for only the second time in their history, with their other run coming under Pep Guardiola between May and November 2017 (11 in a row).
- In games played on Wednesday in all competitions, Manchester City have won 25 of their last 27 matches (D1 L1), winning their last 11 in the Premier League. City could be the first side to win 12 consecutive Premier League games on a Wednesday, with Spurs also winning 11 in a row between December 2016 and January 2019.
- Man City’s Riyad Mahrez has scored more Premier League goals against Burnley than he has versus any other side (8). The Algerian has netted seven in his last four against the Clarets, including a hat-trick in this season’s reverse fixture at the Etihad.
- Only West Brom’s Sam Johnstone (85) has made more saves in the Premier League this season than Burnley’s Nick Pope (80), with the England stopper averaging 4.2 saves per game – his highest such average in a single top-flight campaign.
- Man City striker Gabriel Jesus has never ended on the losing side in the Premier League when he’s found the net (W35 D2) – when scoring for a specific side, only Carlos Tevez for Manchester City has scored in more games without losing any in Premier League history, scoring in 39 for City between 2009 and 2013.
FULHAM V LEICESTER
6pm Another big game for Fulham at the bottom of the Premier League, after drawing with Brighton and West Brom over the last week it seems that realistically the only side they can catch is Newcastle – that’s what the market is saying anyway and it’s probably very true. The sides below them look to be going down, so it’s just left to Fulham to battle but the gap is pretty big – it was seven points after the weekend round of games and although they do have a game in hand it seems unlikely they can bridge that gap and then kick on from there to stay up. If you look at their xG figures, it’s highly likely they will go down – they just aren’t playing good enough.
Leicester lost vital ground in the race for a top four spot last week with a draw against Everton and a loss against Leeds. They didn’t play badly in those two games; the result just didn’t go their way. The 2.04 on them this evening has to be taken in my opinion. They did enough to beat Everton and draw with Leeds, but look at the Fulham xG figures. They managed a 0-0 draw with Brighton but they conceded an xG of 2.37 and were exceptionally lucky Brighton didn’t take their chances. They had a tough run of fixtures, but conceded an xG of 2.04 against United, 2.08 against Chelsea and 2.91 in an undeserved 1-1 draw with Spurs. Leicester will create enough to win this game and I’m surprised they are odds against.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Leicester to beat Fulham at 2.04 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQfullei
- Fulham have lost just one of their seven Premier League meetings with Leicester (W3 D3), going down 1-3 at the King Power Stadium in March 2019.
- Leicester haven’t won any of their last five away games against Fulham in all competitions (D2 L3) since a 1-0 win in the second tier in April 1983.
- Fulham have won just one of their last 11 Premier League home games (D3 L7), with that victory coming against fellow strugglers West Brom in November (2-0).
- Only Manchester United have earned more away points in the Premier League this season than Leicester (23), with the Foxes losing just one of their 10 games on the road so far (W7 D2).
- Fulham have lost their first three home games in 2021 in all competitions – they have never lost their first four home games in a calendar year as a Football League side.
- Leicester are unbeaten in their last seven away matches in all competitions (W5 D2) – they last had a longer such run between April and December 2015 (14 matches).
- Scott Parker could be the first Fulham manager since Martin Jol in August 2013 (five in a row) to lose four home games in a row in all competitions – their last two runs of four home defeats have seen two different managers take charge over the spell: March 2014 (Meulensteen & Magath) and March 2019 (Ranieri and Parker).
- Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers hasn’t suffered two defeats against a single newly promoted club in a Premier League season since 2011/12 versus Norwich City, when he himself was in charge of newly promoted Swansea.
- Fulham striker Bobby De Cordova-Reid has netted seven goals in 22 games in all competitions in 2020/21, one more than he managed last season in 46 appearances for the Whites. Only in 2017/18 for Bristol City has he scored more in a single season (21 goals).
- Leicester midfielder Youri Tielemans has been directly involved in at least one goal in all four of the Foxes’ away games in all competitions in 2021, scoring three goals and assisting once.
LEEDS V EVERTON
7.30pm This is a very interesting fixture. Leeds had a nice result at the weekend with a 3-1 win over Leicester, while Everton broke their unbeaten run with a 2-0 loss to Newcastle. That Everton performance was very poor and was very surprising as they had been playing good football leading up to that. Newcastle score twice or more very, very rarely and xG says it was a pretty fair result too, showing just how poor Everton were. Leeds still conceded an xG of 2.18 at Leicester and were lucky to come away with the win – they also conceded an xG of 1.44 to Newcastle before that – so Everton will get chances here, it’s just a case of can they take them or will they even play well enough. If they play at the same level as they did against Newcastle then Leeds will win.
I feel the match odds are a very fair assessment of the game here. I would have Leeds favourites and I don’t think the market has moved them in too far either. I feel the odds are pretty bang on. I like over 2.5 goals at 1.66 given the open game that Leeds like to play and the number of chances Everton have been giving up lately. I’m going to keep my stakes low here because I’m unsure how well Everton will play; but this game screams goals on paper to me given the mistakes both sides have at the back. I’m surprised it’s not closer to 1.5 and the 1.66 is worth backing.
The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.66 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleeeve
- Following their 1-0 win at Goodison Park in the reverse fixture, Leeds are looking to complete their first league double over Everton since 1990-91, when they were also a newly promoted side.
- Everton have only won one of their last 37 top-flight away games against Leeds (D9 L27), winning 1-0 in November 2002 thanks to a Wayne Rooney goal.
- Of the 45 sides Everton have faced at least 10 times away from home in top-flight history, their lowest win rate on the road is against Leeds – the Toffees have won just three of their 49 visits to Elland Road (6% – D12 L34).
- Leeds have won all three of their midweek Premier League games this season (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), scoring 12 goals and conceding three.
- Everton have won four of their last five away league games (D1), including each of the last three in a row. They last won four consecutive top-flight away games in December 1985.
- Leeds, who won 1-0 at Goodison Park earlier this season, could be the first newly promoted team to record a Premier League double over Everton since West Brom in 2010/11. The only newly promoted team to complete a top-flight double over a team managed by Carlo Ancelotti was Brescia against Parma in Serie A in 1997/98.
- Everton have lost three of their four Premier League games this season when they’ve had 60% or more possession, including in their previous outing against Newcastle (0-2 with 61% possession). The only game they won in these circumstances came against West Brom in September, who had to play with 10 men for the entire second half.
- Leeds’ Marcelo Bielsa could become only the fourth manager to win his first two top-flight managerial matches against Carlo Ancelotti, after Alberto Zaccheroni (Udinese, 1996-97), Zdenek Zeman (1996-97, Lazio & Roma) and Gerardo Martino (2013-14, Barcelona).
- Patrick Bamford has been directly involved in 15 goals in his 20 Premier League games for Leeds United (11 goals, 4 assists) – only Tony Yeboah (17) has had a hand in more goals in their first 20 PL appearances for the club. The striker has scored in two of his last three games in the competition at Elland Road (two goals).
- In his first nine Premier League games this season, Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored 10 goals from 29 shots for a conversion rate of 34%. In his subsequent nine league appearances, he’s scored just once from 19 shots (5% conversion).
ASTON VILLA V WEST HAM
8.15pm Two of my favourite sides this season clash here. Both have been excellent this season and they have also offered a lot of value in the markets. We landed both our bets with Aston Villa and West Ham again the weekend, but Villa were very lucky to beat Southampton as the game finished with an xG of 2.51 to 0.77 for Southampton. West Ham played OK in a 3-1 loss to Liverpool; I didn’t expect them to win but they got on the scoresheet and performed well. This should be a good game.
As both sides have been favourites of mine this season, this might be a game to keep stakes low as they both clash. I do like West Ham here at the odds though. There really isn’t much between them and Villa look far too short to me at 2.28. They have been impressive this season, especially going forward, but I feel this is a good time to back West Ham. The Hammers look in better form heading into this fixture and if Villa give up the same amount of chances that they did against Southampton then West Ham will take full advantage. Villa were very unlucky to lose against Burnley recently, but they have been leaking goals and I’m happy to take a chance on West Ham at 3.5 rather than lay Villa – although I couldn’t put anyone off that either.
The Striker Says:
One point win West Ham to beat Aston Villa at 3.5 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQavlwhu
- Aston Villa have won just one of their last nine Premier League meetings with West Ham (D5 L3), winning 1-0 at Villa Park in May 2015.
- West Ham are looking to secure their first league double over Aston Villa since 2005-06. However, the Hammers have won just one of their last 10 Premier League visits to Villa Park (D4 L5) – 2-0 in February 2014.
- Aston Villa have failed to score in five of their last nine Premier League meetings with West Ham, netting just once in each of the other four. Indeed, only against Newcastle (15) have West Ham kept more Premier League clean sheets than they have against the Villans (14).
- Aston Villa have lost 15 of their last 17 Premier League games in the month of February, drawing at Cardiff (2014) and winning against Norwich (2016) in the others.
- After a run of three consecutive home league defeats in which they conceded a total of nine goals, Aston Villa have kept a clean sheet in each of their last three at Villa Park. They last kept four straight home clean sheets in the Premier League in October 2001.
- West Ham are looking to win three consecutive Premier League away games for the first time since December 2018. The Hammers have already won more league games on the road this season (5) than they managed in the whole of 2019-20 (4).
- Jack Grealish has been directly involved in eight goals in eight Premier League home games for Aston Villa this season (three goals, five assists) – if he scores or assists in this game, he will have more goal involvements at Villa Park this season than he did in the whole of last season (8 in 18 home league games).
- West Ham manager David Moyes is unbeaten in his last nine Premier League matches against Aston Villa (W4 D5), although he has only registered a league double over Villa once previously, with Manchester United in 2013/14.
- Aston Villa’s Bertrand Traoré has scored in each of his last two Premier League appearances at Villa Park – the last Villa player to score in three in a row at home in the top-flight was Darren Bent in November 2011.
- Since the start of the 2009-10 season, West Ham’s Craig Dawson has scored more league goals than any other defender in England’s top four tiers (41).
LIVERPOOL V BRIGHTON
8.15pm We finish the evening with Liverpool hosting Brighton after getting back to winning ways last week with two 3-1 wins. They were very impressive in both games, especially against Spurs as they absolutely bossed that game – giving up an xG of only 0.11 compared to creating 2.39. Brighton come here in very good form with a win over Spurs at the weekend too, but this should be one way traffic with Liverpool back in good form. The Reds have a number of issues at the back with injuries, but I feel the 1.4 on the home win is the right price. Liverpool might have handed Man City the advantage in the title race, but we’ve had a lot of random results this season and who knows; they might get back into it and get closer to City.
I feel the match odds are pretty much bang on here so without any value on offer, I will be focusing on the side markets for this game. Over 2.5 goals is tempting at around 1.7, but the bet that really catches my eye here is Both Teams To Score at 1.86. Brighton have created a lot in their games lately, and although I expect Liverpool to get the job done, I feel Brighton can definitely score here. As I said, Liverpool have a number of injuries at the back and with Brighton in good form going forward – I feel we’ll see plenty of goals here. BTTS looks a better option than over 2.5 goals for me.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.86 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQlivbha
- Liverpool are unbeaten in 12 meetings with Brighton in all competitions (W10 D2), since a 0-2 FA Cup defeat in January 1984.
- Brighton have lost eight of their last nine away league games against Liverpool, winning the other 1-0 in March 1982.
- Brighton have lost all seven of their away league games against reigning top-flight champions, scoring just twice and conceding 19 goals in these games.
- Liverpool’s 68-game unbeaten home run in the Premier League ended at the hands of Burnley last time out. The Reds haven’t lost consecutive home league games since September 2012 (vs Arsenal and Manchester United).
- Liverpool haven’t failed to score in three consecutive home league games since October 1984 under Joe Fagan. The only reigning Premier League champion to fail to score in three home league games in a row was Man Utd in their final three home games of 2001/02.
- Brighton are looking to keep four consecutive league clean sheets for the very first time in the top-flight, while they last did so at any league level in November 2016 in the Championship.
- Liverpool have won their last two Premier League matches, after going five without a win in the competition beforehand (D3 L2) – the Reds last won three in a row in the top-flight back in September (five wins).
- Jürgen Klopp hasn’t lost consecutive home league matches as a manager since October 2014 when he was Borussia Dortmund boss, losing to Hamburger SV and Hannover 96.
- Liverpool’s Mo Salah has been involved in nine goals in seven Premier League appearances against Brighton (5 goals, 4 assists), averaging a goal or assist every 63 minutes against the Seagulls.
- Pascal Groß has assisted 18 Premier League goals, at least 10 more than any other player for Brighton in the competition. Indeed, the only Germans with more assists in Premier League history are Mesut Özil (54), Leroy Sané (28) and Dietmar Hamann (22).
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