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BUNDESLIGA MONDAY: Our new European football tipster The Ultra previews Monday’s Bundesliga game between WERDER BREMAN V BAYER LEVERKUSEN with a recommended BETDAQ bet.

The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.

The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.


WERDER BREMAN V BAYER LEVERKUSEN

7.30pm Monday Night Football is back! But not like we’re used to. Our action comes from the Bundesliga where Werder Bremen host Bayer Leverkusen at Wohninvest Weserstadion. A lot has been made in England about the sides towards the bottom of the Premier League not wanting to finish the season. Werder Bremen sit second bottom in the Bundesliga and would have happily took a void season. Especially considering they should be higher in the table on xG – actually going up to 14th position.

Bayer Leverkusen are having a very solid season. They had won seven of their last nine before the season was suspended and they are pushing for a spot in Europe. They will have more to play for than most teams as we finish the season, however Werder Breman are fighting at the bottom of the table so even though the game is behind closed doors, I expect a very intense game.

The stats say that although Bayer Leverkusen are impressive going forward, they have been leaking goals at the back. In 12 away games this season, they have conceded 17 goals and they should have conceded more on xG. They’ve given up 22 goals on chances conceded, which is actually more than they have scored which is 20 goals. Given Werder Bremen’s poor position in the Bundesliga, we can assume they have been conceding lots of goals at home and that is correct. They have conceded 26 in 11 games.

The Bayer Leverkusen win is tempting at 1.75 on BETDAQ Exchange given how poor Werder Breman have been this season. I’m not selecting that as my main though, although I wouldn’t put anyone off. This game screams goals and I’m happy to back over 2.5 goals at 1.7 on BETDAQ Exchange.

Both sides have an xG higher than 2.5 goals going into this one. Werder Breman have 2.7 home and Bayer Leverkusen 3+ away. Bayer Leverkusen are also conceding close to two goals away from home and the home side have conceded a lot at home this season. I can see plenty of mistakes at the back in this one and over 2.5 goals shouldn’t be as big as 1.7.

The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.7 with BETDAQ Exchange.

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