EURO 2020 OUTRIGHT PREVIEW: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews the outright market for Euro 2020 which kicks off on 11 June. The preview includes some recommended BETDAQ bets.
We’ve had to wait quite a while, but Euro 2020 is finally here! It promises to be an excellent month of high quality football, and it’s fantastic that every match is 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange too. We have a fascinating tournament ahead, I think it’s fair to say a major tournament hasn’t been this open for a while. The likes of Spain and Germany have took a step backwards recently – and prior to that Italy and the Netherlands didn’t really recover from losing their star players. That leaves France, England and Belgium as the three favourites.
We all know just how good the French side is at times, but they can throw in some terrible performances too. Belgium have been a lot of football fans “dark horses” to win the last few major tournaments but they have come up short in the big moments. They are always very impressive in qualifying but don’t really perform in the same way in the crunch games. With the squad they have; they’ll probably never have a better chance to win a major tournament. From their points of view they have to win something with this group of players. And then there’s England, so much young talent in the squad it’s incredible – but how will Southgate put them all together? Whatever happens, we’re going to have a fantastic month!
We have some very interesting Groups, but the fascination has been somewhat dulled since UEFA changed the tournament prior to 2016. As we all know, we now also have four teams who finish third in their Group go through to the Last 16. This takes the pressure off a lot and when you see a Group like we have with Group F – France, Germany, Portugal and Hungary – you want it to go back to Euro 2012 when only the top two went through and we had some massive games! But a bigger tournament means more money and as we know, money rules football these days. Let’s go through each Group and see where we stand.
Italy, Turkey, Switzerland and Wales:
Although Italy missed the last World Cup, they have bounced back well and they have a pretty good Group here. They should top it. I can’t see Italy winning the tournament as they are likely to come up short in the Last 16 or Quarter Finals in my opinion, but they should beat everyone in this Group. The betting says Wales will come last but I don’t see that being the case – I think apart from Italy this Group is wide open and second place could go to anyone to be honest. Turkey finished second in qualifying in a Group that was very weak apart from France and Switzerland topped a weak Group too that had Ireland, Georgia and Gibraltar in it. I know Wales aren’t a very reliable side, but I think they are underrated here.
The Ultra Says: Back Wales To Qualify at 1.8 or bigger.
Belgium, Denmark, Russia and Finland:
All eyes will be on Belgium here and rightly so. As I said above, it’s about time they did something at a major tournament with that squad. They had a massive boost too with the news that Kevin De Bruyne won’t need surgery after his injury in the Champions League Final. Obviously Belgium are a top side but I do worry about them in big games. That being said, I feel the odds are all wrong here. You can get 1.7+ on them to win the Group and I feel that is massive. Denmark aren’t in the same league as them and we have saw that in the Nations Leagues, while Russia and Finland are pretty limited. They are solid but limited sides. Belgium should outclass all three and win every game.
The Ultra Says: Back Belgium to Win Group B at 1.7 or bigger.
Netherlands, Ukraine, Austria and North Macedonia:
Much like Belgium in Group B, all eyes will be on the Netherlands here. They are shorter than Belgium to win the Group, trading around about 1.5 or thereabouts and they really should be winning too. North Macedonia will be the whipping boys of this Group as they are very limited, and if truth be told there must be a good chance than the third place side get through here too given how weak North Macedonia will be. In my view, there isn’t much between Ukraine and Austria – Ukraine topped a Group with Portugal in qualifying and that is eye-catching, while Austria were second in a very weak Group. I don’t majorly fancy any bet in this Group, but Netherlands would be one for any Acca on the Sportsbook at 1.5 to win the Group.
England, Croatia, Czech Republic and Scotland:
No doubt there will be huge interest in this Group as England and Scotland face each other. It will be a massive game for the Scotland fans, but the reality is they aren’t in the same league as England and it should be a routine win for England. The England squad looks excellent coming into the tournament, and it’s fair to say they have their best chance of winning a major tournament for many years. The main problem they face is handling the pressure – they are a very young side and there’s no media in the world as bad as England’s. They should sail through this Group anyway and they are a similar price to the Netherlands in Group C – they are trading between 1.45 and 1.5 to win. Croatia will be their main danger, but they should beat Czech Republic and Scotland easily. No bet appeals to me in this Group, as England look about the right price to win.
Spain, Poland, Sweden and Slovakia:
Group E is another Group that has a clear winner for me. Spain should top this Group easily – Slovakia are a very limited side and should be the whipping boys of this Group. Then it’s going to be very close between Poland and Sweden as to who will be second. Given everyone should beat Slovakia, this is another Group where the third place might have a good chance of qualify as Poland and Sweden might end up with four points each if they draw. In Euro 2016, the two sides with four points actually topped the third placed rankings, and then the other two sides to get through only had three points – technically you don’t need to do much to qualify in third – probably the main aim would be the avoid a hammering from the top side in your Group for goal difference.
France, Germany, Portugal and Hungary:
Back in the day before we had third place qualifying, this would have been called the Group Of Death and we would have had some huge matches. You would imagine all three should qualify, but that also does put a lot of pressure on winning the game against Hungary and there might be a lot of draws in this Group, so you never know. However, looking at the ranking table from Euro 2016 as I mentioned above, a win against Hungary and a draw should do it. This should be an excellent Group and we’ll have some top class matches. This will be the last major tournament for a few Portugal players, as surely the likes of Ronaldo won’t last until the World Cup – although you never know with his fitness levels. With their star man aging, they won’t be a force in this tournament but Germany are also not as good as they once were. That leaves France who have an excellent squad and as we know can deliver in the big games. I feel they are worth backing to win the Group at around 2.6.
The Ultra Says: Back France to Win Group F at 2.6 or bigger.
As I said above, we have a hugely open tournament and we should have a cracking summer. We have three brackets of teams looking at the market. They are:
Favourites: France, England, Belgium.
Live Chance: Spain, Germany, Portugal, Italy, Netherlands.
Outsiders/No Chance: The rest.
I believe the above to be true, as I can’t see the winners coming from outside that eight sides mention. The next team in the market is Denmark, who aren’t good enough in my opinion – we have seen them enough times come up short against the top sides. There’s a lot of questions marks about the Live Chance sides too – Spain, Germany and Portugal aren’t as good as they once were and then you have Italy and the Netherlands who have even missed out on major tournament in recent years. They all have the quality to win big games, but you have to feel that they would come up short against the top three favourites when they meet.
That leaves us with France, England and Belgium – and I really can’t see the winner coming from outside the top three in terms of quality. However, they too have questions to answer. Belgium have the talent to win, and as I said above, they’ll never have a better squad so this is their best chance of winning a tournament. They always seem to fluff their lines in the big moments however, and that puts me off them. England have an excellent young squad, but are they too young? I can’t see them not handling the pressure in the latter part of the tournament – but they should have a good run. That leaves France who look the best bet here at 6.0 I know they are the favourites, but they are favourites for a reason and the 6.0 looks good value. They have “been there, done that” in a major tournament and they also have the best squad in the competition – if they put it all together I can’t see any of the others beating them. They have a tricky Group to start, which should set them up for a good tournament too. Plus if they can top Group F, it looks like they’ll have a pretty easy (on paper) route to the Semi-Final. It’s France for me!
The Ultra Says: Back France to Win Euro 2020 at 6.0 or bigger.
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