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EURO 2020 TUESDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews the semi-final between ITALY v SPAIN with a recommended BETDAQ 0% COMMISSION bet.


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ITALY V SPAIN

8pm Euro 2020 has been an incredible tournament, and now we’re down to the final four teams as the Semi-Finals start on Tuesday night. Both matches are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and we’re all set for two fantastic games. There’s no doubt that this has been the tough side of the draw, and if Italy win there’s no doubt they have done it the hard way. They had a pretty easy Group, but then bumped into Belgium and Spain! The Spanish have had an easier run to here, but Croatia and Switzerland have pushed them all the way. They continue to create excellent xG figures, and this should be a fascinating tactical affair.

Let’s look at the xG figures heading into the game for both sides. Italy created 2.03 v Turkey, 2.5 v Switzerland, 2.26 v Wales, 2.24 v Austria and 2.23 v Belgium. That first half against Belgium was incredible and Italy closed up shop quite well in the second half. Belgium will argue they created an xG of 1.86 and the game could have finished 2-2, but credit to Italy for stopping them – they had all the tricks for wasting time etc, it was a classic Italian performance. Spain have been exceptionally impressive creating chances. Their xG figures have been 2.89 v Sweden, 3.18 v Poland, 3.63 v Slovakia, 4.36 v Croatia and 3.52 v Switzerland. It’s almost laughable they have drawn four of their five games; however that has to be factored in when considering whether to back them or not.

Of course, it all comes down to value. There’s no doubt we’ll see a close game here – we have two European giants and both are in good form. Looking at the match odds market, Spain are the value for me at 3.2. Italy look a little short at 2.56. I fully expect a closer game than the odds reflect, as I would have them priced closer together. I’m sure the draw will be very popular here at 3.3.

Spain have created a lot more, but you have to consider they have conceded a lot more goals too. Italy didn’t concede in the Group stage, and then gave away one to Austria and one to Belgium. Whereas Spain only conceded once at the Group stage but then conceded three v Croatia who had looked pretty toothless before that and then again conceded once against Switzerland. I’m still a fan of Spain at 3.2, but I do worry about them at the back – especially with Italy in decent form in front of goal.

I expect a very close game, and possibly a very cagey start – however I feel under 2.5 goals looks too short at 1.7. There is so much attacking talent on the pitch it’s hard to see why unders is odds on. I can see why many football punters might want to back it – neither side will be going all-out attack from the start. The thing is though, once we get a spark in this game it can really take off. We saw that with Italy against Belgium, and Spain are far more attacking than Belgium – and have been creating better figures going forward too. So I wouldn’t be surprise to see a reasonably quiet start but then a very open second half if someone has scored.

I couldn’t put anyone off over 2.5 goals at 2.3 or bigger, but from a value point of view I’m happy to have a back of Spain at 3.2. The Italy lay is tempting too because Spain have drawn a lot of games and I wouldn’t have Italy so short here, but the 3.2 is too big to ignore for a side creating as many chances as Spain. I know Italy have good figures too, but they have only faced Belgium and the rest of the sides they were entitled to beat. This is a huge game, and a huge test – Spain to come out on top! England fans will be hoping for a very tough grind and extra time (although they still have to beat Denmark!)

The Ultra Says:
Two points win Spain to beat Italy at 3.2 with BETDAQ Exchange..

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