EURO 2020 WEDNESDAY: Four matches in Euro 2020 on Wednesday – the final day of the Group phase. Our European football tipster The Ultra previews the games between SLOVAKIA v SPAIN, SWEDEN v POLAND, GERMANY v HUNGARY and PORTUGAL v FRANCE all with recommended BETDAQ 0% COMMISSION bets.
SLOVAKIA V SPAIN
5pm It’s the final Group Day at Euro 2020 and what a day we have! It’s all to play for in Group E and F, and we’re bound to have some major drama; even with the third place rankings! All matches are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange and I can’t wait to see what happens. We start the evening with Slovakia taking on Spain, and they will be trying to defend for their lives here. After beating Poland on Match day, a draw would be good enough here. Spain find themselves in the unusual position of third heading into their final day after two draws. To be fair to Spain, they have bossed their opening two games but they have struggled to score. They have created xG figures of 2.89 against Sweden and 3.18 against Poland. They are playing some very good football; they just need to convert their chances. Make no mistake they are under pressure here, and they have to start scoring.
Slovakia are a very limited side, and I was very surprised to see them beat Poland. Looking at the xG figures they didn’t deserve to win, but it was still poor from Poland to lose to an average side like Slovakia. The market is expecting an easy win for Spain – they are trading 1.24 which is the shortest price any side has been in the Group stages yet, although ironically Germany are shorter later! Because Spain have been in such good form but struggling to score, it makes this game tricky from a betting point of view. They are very close to hammering a side, but they have to start taking their chances. I’m not keen to go against Spain or go unders because you can see they are playing quality football. This is a game for small stakes, and Any Other Away Win (Spain to score four or more and win) is worth a small investment at 4.5 in the Correct Score market.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Any Other Away Win Correct Score at 4.5 with BETDAQ Exchange..
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQSloSpa
SWEDEN V POLAND
5pm Next we have our most open market of the day as Sweden take on Poland in another huge game in Group E. Sweden sit top of the Group coming into this game while Poland sit last, however such is the situation, Poland could go past Sweden with a 3-0 or bigger win. They have the protentional to do that, but so far they have been largely unimpressive. I know they didn’t deserve to lose against Slovakia, but it was still a poor performance and Spain should have beat them. Sweden played well in a 1-0 win over Slovakia – they created more than they scored – but you wouldn’t say they are an above average side. You could say the same about Poland, and it’s not surprising that we have such an open market. It’s hard to be confident about either side. Sweden would take a draw as that would see them through in second (assuming Spain go past on goal difference which they should) and that would see Poland out of the tournament.
In a must win game for Poland, it’s hard not to see an open game. Sweden aren’t a negative side, and even in the 0-0 against Spain we could have easily had four goals. People could have looked at that score line and said Sweden must have defended the whole game, but they created some good chances themselves. It was remarkable it finished 0-0. Sweden have played better than Poland, and I wouldn’t have Poland as slight favourites here. They are a tempting lay, however this situation screams goals and over 2.5 goals is too big to ignore at 2.34. I’m surprised it’s so big given the situation, I’d have it odds on.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.34 with BETDAQ Exchange..
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQSwePol
GERMANY V HUNGARY
8pm We move to the so called “Group of Death” next and we start with Germany against Hungary. As I said above, Germany are the shortest price of any side so far at Euro 2020 and it would be a complete shock to see anything bar a Germany win. That being said, Hungary managed a 1-1 draw with France at the weekend. France were unlucky though, they created an xG of 2.35 and the Hungary goal came from nowhere. Germany were involved in the game of the tournament so far with a 4-2 win over Portugal, and that was quite the turnaround after the 1-0 loss to France when they couldn’t create anything. Hungary are a very limited side, they have one of the worst attacks in the tournament and this should be a very comfortable win for Germany. That being said, that’s what the market is expecting with them trading 1.21!
I feel it’s a case of “how many” rather than “do they win” and we’ll have to look at the side markets here. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.5 but that’s largely due to the fact that Germany are expected to score a lot. Hungary have to win to have any chance of getting through and although that is a big ask, it will make the game more open than usual. They can’t just sit back and defend. They are very limited going forward though, and I feel them attacking will suit Germany more. This is a game for small stakes in my opinion, but Any Other Home Win is worth a small bet at 3.3 in the Correct Score market. When Hungary open up, Germany can enjoy going forward and we should see plenty of goals.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 3.3 with BETDAQ Exchange..
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQGerHun
PORTUGAL V FRANCE
8pm We end the Euro 2020 Group stage with a huge game! What a way to finish! After their 1-1 draw with Hungary, France have thrown the Group wide open. You’d have to assume Germany will beat Hungary at the same time, so we could have a situation where France qualify in third with four points. A loss for Portugal would leave them in a tricky situation as they would only have three points but by the time we kick off they will know the goal difference situation with the third place rankings and three points. I didn’t expect a side like Portugal to concede four against Germany, especially when they took an early lead. You’d have to expect a much tighter game here, and it’s also fair to say that both sides would be happy with a draw. France would take second and Portugal would be sure of going through with four points.
France may have only managed a 1-1 draw with Hungary, but their xG was 2.35 and in my view they have been one of the most impressive teams in the tournament. They look like they have everything needed to win. They look solid at the back and their attacking talent is second to none. You can more or less say the same thing about Portugal, but they are just a level above France. It’s not a surprise to see France at 2.36 and that looks like a value price. However, it’s hard to get away from under 2.5 goals here at 1.65. I know Portugal have had plenty of goals in their games to date, but they will have to keep things tight here given they need at least a draw. France haven’t really opened up their games yet, and I expect that to continue here. Unders looks the best value bet here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.65 with BETDAQ Exchange..
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQPorFrn