EURO 2020 WEDNESDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews the semi-final between ENGLAND v DENMARK with a recommended BETDAQ 0% COMMISSION bet.
ENGLAND V DENMARK
8pm It’s the night all England fans have been waiting for as they face Denmark in the Euro 2020 Semi-Final! This is going to be an amazing build-up and should be a wonderful game, with 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange for extra value on our bets. England have had a dream run through so far in the tournament, but they bump into an in-form Denmark side now and they have a very tough test again. England are trading odds on at 1.75 and on paper they should win, but it won’t be as easy as beating Ukraine!
England fans can rightly get very excited. They have yet to concede a goal at Euro 2020 and they have been creating good chances too. Their xG figures have been 1.5 v Croatia, 1.67 v Scotland, 1.13 v Czech Republic, 1.33 v Germany and 2.15 v Ukraine. They took all the headlines with that 4-0 win over Ukraine, however we can’t forget that Ukraine looked very limited in the tournament before that. They benefited from the draw as they got Sweden, and they got beaten twice in the Group stage. They looked a poor side, but create to England – they dominated the game and hammered them.
Denmark had a slow start to the tournament when losing their first two games – however they were incredibly unlucky. They had to go through the Christian Eriksen incident and then they played well against Belgium, but were undone in the second half by a brilliant Kevin de Bruyne performance. They started winning after that and haven’t looked back since – they’ve scored ten goals in three games. Their xG figures so far have been; 2.09 v Finland, 1.99 v Belgium, 2.52 v Russia, 2.96 v Wales and 1.61 v Czech Republic.
Perhaps the first signs in a while that Denmark were a side England should beat came against the Czech Republic. The game was pretty even, and Czech Republic probably “won” the second half. England controlled the game against Czech Republic, and they also beat them 5-0 in qualifying. Denmark are a top side, and they are very much worth respecting but you have to admit they aren’t quite at England’s level. There’s no getting away from the fact however that if England aren’t at their best here, Denmark will punish them.
Of course, it all comes down to the prices in the market and where the value is. England are trading 1.75 and for me that prices looks fair. England should be odds on, but it’s hard to make the argument that they should be dramatically shorter given how good Denmark have played at the tournament. I’m sure the England lay will be popular for the neutrals. I am a fan of the draw at 3.85 as I feel that offers value here – I expect a very close game. The England v Germany game was very close until the end, and I would expect a very similar game here. I expect a more cagey game too, with so much on the line.
Under 2.5 goals also looks fairly priced at 1.7. You’d have to expect a cagey start. However, I wouldn’t be rushing to back it at odds on given the amount of goals both sides have scored. Denmark aren’t afraid of playing an open game too, so while we might have a cagey start – we could easily have a very open end-to-end second half, so that puts me off unders. Over all, I expect a very close game and the draw is the value call at 3.85.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.85 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQEngDen