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FRIDAY IN EUROPE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Friday’s games between UNION BERLIN v RB LEIPZIG and GRANADA v ALAVES both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.


7.30pm It’s been a relatively quiet week around Europe but we’re back with a bang on Friday night on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with Bundesliga and La Liga action. This is our usual Friday night slot with one game from each league and hopefully we can find some good value winners! We start in the Bundesliga with Union Berlin hosting RB Leipzig. Although this isn’t what you would call a blockbuster fixture, it’s actually a massive game for both sides looking at the table. Union Berlin are sitting in sixth at the moment and they are having a fantastic season (by their standards) while RB Leipzig are only sitting in eighth, two points behind Union Berlin. The RB Leipzig issues have been well documented, but they were seemingly making progress before putting together two losses. It’s going to be very hard for them to get Champions League football given their start, and when you look at the table you can see that they really need to win games like this to have any chance.

Union Berlin come into the game off a loss to Eintracht Frankfurt who are towards the bottom of the table, but they will be confident of getting a result here. They will know the RB Leipzig issues, and they should play an attacking game. If you look at the slope graph from the Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin actually drop down quite a few spots and RB Leipzig shoot up to fourth. Union Berlin have had some lucky wins this season, but there actually hasn’t been much in the game they have won – they have grinded out a win and that’s to their credit. It’s not like they are conceding an xG of over 2 and created very little. They are winning by a goal when xG finishes 1.20 to 1.23 or something along those lines. With Leipzig continuing to give away a host of chances, I feel this game will be closer than the odds suggest and I’m happy to lay Leipzig at a shade of odds on. Union Berlin can grind out another positive result here.

The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) RB Leipzig to beat Union Berlin at 1.98 with BETDAQ Exchange.

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8pm We finish the evening in La Liga with a massive game towards the bottom of the table. On paper tonight might not be the most glamourous Friday night, but we actually have two huge games for the sides involved. Granada host Alaves in what might not be a high quality game, but it’s absolutely vital looking at the table. Both sides have been poor this season, as their positions show in 15th and 16th, but they have been “lucky” that some sides have been worse than them. However, when you look at the xG table which decides points based on performance, Granada are rock bottom. Alaves had a very bad start to the season, but they have actually been on a good run lately and they have been picking up a lot of points. They come here off the back of a loss to Celta Vigo, but prior to that they managed draws with Sevilla and Barcelona, and beat Levante, Elche and Cadiz – all sides around them which is a really position sign. They are still bang in the mix to go down, but they have a two point advantage over Granada and if they could win this game they would have a lot of breathing space.

Granada have been one of the most lucky sides in the league results wise. They have managed two wins this season, but both were lucky – they beat Sevilla 1-0 but xG finished 1.84 to 0.07 to Sevilla, and they managed to beat Levante but xG finished very even – while they have also had some lucky draws too, for example they keep up a 1-1 draw with Barcelona but Barcelona created an xG of over 2. It’s understandable that we have an open market here, but the profile of the two sides is different in my view. Alaves look a much better side, and they have been playing much better football lately too. Obviously both sides are limited, and we’re going to have a low quality affair, but I wouldn’t have Granada as favourites here and I’m happy to lay them at 2.66.

The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Granada to beat Alaves at 2.66 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here ->