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BUNDESLIGA/LA LIGA FRIDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews Friday’s games between WERDER BREMEN v KOLN and ELCHE v CELTA VIGO with recommended BETDAQ bets.

The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.

The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.


7.30pm Another great Friday night of Bundesliga and La Liga action begins with Werder Bremen hosting Koln. Werder Bremen have been very tough to beat at the start of the season, and arrive into this fixture off the back of three straight 1-1 draws. Surely we will see a different score line tonight! If you look under the hood at the underlining numbers, Werder Bremen haven’t been performing well. Yes, they have had results and close games – but they are giving up too many chances and not creating much. For example, in their 1-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld they lost the game 0.33 to 1.14 on xG. They conceded 2.06 to Schalke and 2.23 to Eintracht Frankfurt at the weekend when drawing 1-1.

Koln have been the opposite. They have started the season very poorly looking at their results, but their performances have actually been better. They did very well against Bayern Munich last weekend – they lost the game 2-1 but they were always expected to lose that. They created an xG of 2.14 away to Stuttgart prior to that in a 1-1 draw and ironically they actually lost to Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 when winning the game 114 to 0.20 on xG – the opposite to Werder Bremen! It’s very tempting to back Koln at 2.94 but I’m going to have a decent lay on Werder Bremen at 2.52. I’d expect Koln to go very well here.

The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Werder Bremen to beat Koln at 2.52 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

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8pm We move to La Liga at 8pm for Elche hosting Celta Vigo. We have an interesting market here, Celta Vigo are big favourites on BETDAQ Betting Exchange at 2.2 but they are on a poor run of results. They sit just outside the bottom three heading into this weekend, with only six points from eight games. In fairness I can understand why Celta Vigo are favourites looking at the Elche performances – they have been exceptionally lucky to have the points that they have. They won’t be complaining though sitting just inside the top ten in La Liga!

Celta Vigo will point to their fixture list to possibly explain their position. They have had to play Real Sociedad, Atletico Madrid and Barcelona already. They have actually performed OK against all three of those sides. For example they won the game 2.33 to 1.60 on xG when losing 2-0 to Atletico Madrid, kept it tight against Barcelona and created an xG of 1.82 against Real Sociedad. Elche’s performances have to start reflecting their results soon, and that could start tonight. The 2.2 would be a good bet if Celta Vigo were feeling more confident but for tonight I’m happy with a small investment.

The Ultra Says:
One point win Celta Vigo to beat Elche at 2.2 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

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