BUNDESLIGA / LA LIGA PREVIEW: The Ultra previews Friday’s matches between FREIBURG v DORTMUND and OSASUNA v SEVILLA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FREIBURG V DORTMUND
7.30pm We’re back with our usual European Friday night action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week as we have one game from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga as it returns! This weekend also sees the return of Serie A in Italy, so we’re fully up and running in Europe now. It was fantastic to land our first Max Bet of the season on Friday night last week and it was a cracking opening weekend too. We start the action this weekend with Freiburg hosting Dortmund. I have to say that although I was confident on Bayern Munich last weekend, they absolutely hammered Eintracht Frankfurt and probably highlighted already what a difficult task Dortmund and everyone else have this season. I hope it’s not true, but I think the Bundesliga will be over by Christmas this year. It’s up to Dortmund to make things interesting though, and they began life without Haaland with a 1-0 win at home to Bayer Leverkusen last weekend. That was a solid victory – there wasn’t much between the sides last season and they finished the game with an xG of just over 2 – they started the game sitting around 2.0 as well, so you’d have to be happy.
Freiburg had an exceptional season in 2021/22. After finishing in 10th in 2020/21, they improved to 6th and got European football this season. Obviously it will be interesting to see can they keep that top six position with the added stress of European football – it isn’t easy and they don’t exactly have the same depth in their squad as the top sides. They got off to a flyer this season with a 4-0 win over Augsburg. They were superb in front of goal – they didn’t create many clear cut chances but they took what they created! It will be interesting to see can Dortmund handle this Freiburg side – they created an average xG of 1.6 last season; considering Dortmund’s figure was 1.9 (which they over-performed one) they aren’t that far away. Both sides actually conceded the same amount of chances. I felt Dortmund would be a cracking lay if they were odds on here or at least close to 2.0, but the market has them trading 2.32 which looks a fair price. I have to say I don’t fancy Dortmund for this game, but the market hasn’t got them at a very short price – I do expect Freiburg to get something, and a small bet on the draw at 3.8 looks a nice option.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FreDor
OSASUNA V SEVILLA
8pm We move to Spain next to kick off the La Liga season! Real Madrid ran away with the La Liga title last season, with Barcelona and Atletico Madrid starting slowly and struggling – Sevilla were their main challengers for a while. They did have some chances to get close but they blew them all, and then they finished the season poorly to drop down to fourth. After all that hard work, they finished in the same spot! There’s a lot going on with Barcelona off the pitch at the moment, and we have an exceptionally interesting situation as to whether their new signings play or not, but you’d assume that Sevilla missed their chance to finish above Barcelona and Atletico Madrid last season. The good news for Sevilla fans is that they are miles clear of the rest in La Liga so they should have that fourth spot locked in again – Real Betis will want to have something to say about that, but they were five points behind Sevilla last season and it’s hard to see them getting a better start than last season too! Osasuna are your classic mid-table La Liga side – Sevilla have a good record against them, but Osasuna did pick up a draw here last season. They were pretty lucky as Sevilla created an xG of over three times what Osasuna managed – if there was going to be a winner it should have been Sevilla.
Before clicking into the market, I expected to see Sevilla trading close to 2.0. I was surprised to see them trading as big as 2.52 and I’m happy to take a chance with a small bet. It’s the opening weekend of the season after all, and Sevilla do generally start their games slow so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a score line of 0-0 at half-time here before the game opens up. From that point of view, you might get plenty of punters happy to lay Sevilla for a trade until the break, but from an outright point of view I’m happy to take the 2.52. Sevilla are a much better side than Osasuna – the record shows Osasuna don’t usually do well against them, and they should open their season with three points here. There is a gulf in class between the sides in my opinion, and I just wouldn’t have Sevilla trading as big as 2.52. They tend to play a nice brand of counter-attacking football away from home too which should suit this fixture.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Sevilla to beat Osasuna at 2.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/OsaSev