FRIDAY PREVIEW: The Ultra previews Friday’s matches between DORTMUND v HOFFENHEIM and CELTA VIGO v CADIZ both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
DORTMUND V HOFFENHEIM
7.30pm We kick off another massive weekend of European action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with our usual Friday night football slot of one game from the Bundesliga and One from La Liga! We have two big home favourites here, they are trading at very similar odds too, and perhaps we’ll see plenty of doubles but I’m keen, as always, to check out the under lining numbers to see if 1.65 on Dortmund and 1.73 on Celta Vigo is value. We start the evening in the Bundesliga with Dortmund hosting Hoffenheim. Dortmund are still adjusting to life without Haaland as their main man up front – obviously they have lost quite a lot of goals from him and although they have won three of their opening four games, I still feel they will be disappointed. They lost at home to Werder Bremen which was a shock – they would have started that game heavily odds on. They played so poorly against Werder Bremen too, they only created an xG of 0.65 and you could say they have struggled a little to create chances. I know they were good last weekend against Hertha Berlin, but they will be involved in the relegation battle again after taking up the relegation playoff spot last season.
Hoffenheim put in a shockingly poor display on the opening weekend with a 3-1 loss away to Gladbach; they only managed an xG of 0.08! Since then however they have been pretty good though, they have put three wins together against Bochum, Bayer Leverkusen and Augsburg. Hoffenheim are that type of side that sit around mid-table but over 90 minutes they can give the big boys a proper game. They have a good record against Dortmund too – they have managed to get a result (win or draw) in six of the last nine meetings in the Bundesliga. I would definitely lean towards laying Dortmund at the odds here because I do expect a closer game than the odds suggest. However, this game stands out for a game with a lot of goals! The last three games between these sides have finished 3-2, 3-2 and 2-2, and the market is expecting goals again with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.37. Both Teams To Score is also short at 1.47 – neither are prices that are really attractive to be honest and it’s hard to make the case that they should be shorter. I do expect a lot of goals, but the market has it priced that way. I feel the best option here is the Dortmund lay at 1.65 because they haven’t been playing fluid football this season – Hoffenheim will likely create just as much as them and as I said, we should have a closer game than the odds suggest.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Dortmund to beat Hoffenheim at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorHof
CELTA VIGO V CADIZ
8pm To move over to La Liga to finish the day as Celta Vigo host Cadiz. We landed a nice bet in the Cadiz game on Monday night – it was plain sailing for our Athletic Bilbao bet with a smooth 4-0 win. That loss leaves Cadiz bottom of the table with three losses from three games and even so early in the season they are a side under pressure. They only survived last season with a win on the final day, and after an impressive first season they have definitely gone backwards. There’s no doubt that they will be in the relegation mix again this season, and with a bad start things can go very bad, very quickly. Thankfully for them, the bottom six or so in La Liga are pretty average, and I’m sure there will be another big relegation battle with plenty of sides involved – it makes for plenty of drama anyway! On paper, Celta Vigo won’t be unhappy with four points from three games – they had to play Real Madrid in there and aside from that they drew 2-2 with Espanyol and beat Girona. Looking at their xG figures it’s clear that they haven’t been playing well at the start of the season, and I would definitely worry about taking the short odds on them here. They have created xG figures of 0.41, 1.41 and 0.82. They actually created their highest figure against Real Madrid, but then there was no reason for Real not to make that an open game because it was clear they would out score Celta.
I think if Celta were facing a better quality side, it would pay to be against them here. What makes this market interesting is that it’s clear Cadiz are an average side, but Celta Vigo aren’t playing their best at the start of the season. I’m sure Celta will be a reasonably popular bet tonight at around the 1.73 mark but for me it’s definitely a price I am happy to sit out on. I just wouldn’t be fully confident on them winning here, and it’s hard to make the case that they should be a shorter price, and thus making the 1.73 value. Cadiz have very poor xG figures as well as Celta – they have created 0.33, 1.06 and 0.26. Cadiz were actually better away from home last season, and their best performance has come away from home this season too. I think we have two average sides here and we could see a very cagey game. I wouldn’t put anyone off the draw here at around 3.7, but Under 2.5 goals looks a very nice play at 1.68. Both sides are clearly struggling to create chances, and this could be a dull affair – however it’s never dull when you’re on Unders!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CelCad