FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Friday’s games between WERDER BREMEN v AUGSBURG and GIRONA v REAL VALLADOLID both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WERDER BREMEN V AUGSBURG
7.30pm After a fantastic week in Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with the Champions League and the Europa League returning, we return to our usual Friday night slot with one game from the Bundesliga and one game from La Liga. We start the evening in the Bundesliga with Werder Bremen hosting Augsburg. This might not be the most glamourous fixture in the Bundesliga, but with Werder Bremen coming up from Bundesliga 2 and Augsburg hanging around the relegation battle, this is a big game towards the bottom of the table. Augsburg are already sitting in the bottom three after five games while Werder Bremen have actually had a very positive start to the season. They’ve only lost once in five games and have collected eight points. The signs are good for them staying up this season, and another win here would be a massive step towards that even this early in the season. Augsburg were pretty average away from home in the Bundesliga last season, but they weren’t absolutely terrible. They collected 13 points from 17 games, and finished 13th if you just take away form. Nevertheless, Werder Bremen come into the game as odds on favourites – currently trading 1.66 at the time of writing.
Werder Bremen’s games have been very entertaining this season, and we could see plenty of goals here. So far we’ve seen results of 2-2, 2-2, 3-2, 4-3 and 2-0 in Werder Bremen games this season! Obviously Augsburg have tried to keep games a little tighter, but they seem unlikely to really fully sit back here. Over 2.5 goals is trading the 1.66 as well, and that definitely looks a better option than Werder Bremen at the same odds. Augsburg have conceded xG figures of 1.31, 3.26, 2.22, 1.70 and 2.37 this season – pretty much terrible figures. Even in the game they won they were exceptionally lucky – they won 2-1 against Bayer Leverkusen but conceded an xG of 3.26 and only created 0.56. From that point of view when you look at the Augsburg figures it really highlights that this is Werder Bremen’s game to lose to be honest but I just feel Over 2.5 goals is the better option here given how open Werder Bremen have been and how many chances Augsburg have conceded this season. I couldn’t put anyone off the Werder Bremen win at the same time, but it’s Over 2.5 goals for me.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WerAug
GIRONA V REAL VALLADOLID
8pm Next we move over to La Liga to finish the evening as Girona host Real Valladolid. This is a very similar game to the Bundesliga fixture above in the sense that we have two pretty average sides here, and this result could have a big impact on the relegation battle come the end of the season. Both sides came up from the Segunda last season with Real Valladolid finishing second and then Girona coming through the playoffs after finishing sixth. They actually finished 12 points behind Eibar in third but credit to them for getting through the playoffs. Neither side will be too unhappy with their start to the season – they both have four points from four games. Basically the aim this season will be to stay in La Liga and just grind out results. Girona have beaten Getafe with home advantage, who will probably be in the relegation battle at some point and Real Valladolid have beaten Almeria who also came up from the Segunda last season and will also likely be in the relegation battle. The standout result from both sides is the 1-1 draw with Sevilla from Real Valladolid, but they were lucky to get that – they conceded an xG of 2.28. Sevilla have had a woeful start to the season too, and they actually start this weekend sitting in the bottom three – that draw was their only result from their opening four games.
You don’t need me to tell you that this will be a fairly low quality game. It will be interesting to see these two do battle, but I can’t see a lot of creativity in the game. Girona come into the game as favourites as 2.3, given they have home advantage it’s easy to understand the logic behind that, but they are an average side and I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 2.3. They did win 1-0 here when the sides met in the Segunda last season and then the sides draw 2-2 when Real Valladolid had home advantage. Despite that 2-2 result, I still feel we’ll see a lack of goals and chances here – Under 2.5 goals makes a lot of appeal at 1.7. We really haven’t seen high xG figures from either side this season and while we can see some mistakes at the back, the talent going forward isn’t there to take advantage. Girona’s xG figures have been 0.18, 1.24, 0.78 and 1.35 while Real Valladolid’s have been 1.0, 0.62, 0.87 and 2.12 which came against Almeria. Valladolid have definitely had a tougher fixture list, but with home advantage for Girona I can only see a close game here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points Under 2.5 goals at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GirVal