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BUNDESLIGA FRIDAY: Our new European football tipster The Ultra got off to a flying start last weekend. Now for Friday’s Berlin derby between HERTHA BERLIN V UNION BERLIN with a recommended BETDAQ bet.

The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.

The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.


7.30pm The Berlin Derby. What a way to spend a Friday evening! We lose the atmosphere because it’s behind closed doors, but I still expect a very good game. Bruno Labbadia won his first game in charge of Hertha Berlin last weekend as they scored three and kept a clean sheet against Hoffenheim. Union Berlin had to play Bayern Munich and although they lost by two, the pre-game handicap was 2.5 goals.

While Hertha ran out 3-0 winners last weekend, that score doesn’t tell the story. They were lucky to win and actually lost the game on xG. The chances of Hertha keeping a clean sheet were very small, Hoffenheim’s xG was over 3! They needed a new manager given their performances this season, and perhaps they can go on a run with their confidence boosted.

Union Berlin barely created anything last weekend against Bayern Munich, however that can be more or less expected against the best team in the Bundesliga. They left their top goalscorer on the bench, and I will judge them on tonight’s performance rather than against Bayern Munich going forward.

This is a very interesting match-up. Both sides are only mid-table sides, but Hertha have a poor record at home, while Union have an even worse record away. Hertha have conceded a massive 28 goals at home this season, losing 7 from 13 games. Union have lost 8 of 13 away, and conceded 25 goals.

I don’t like the Hertha price at around 2.4 as it’s too short, however Union offered little going forward and given their away record – a home lay looks too risky even allowing for the odds. I’m surprised to see over 2.5 goals as big as 1.95 on the BETDAQ Exchange. Both teams have had plenty of errors at the back and Hertha played a very open game last weekend. They kept a clean sheet on paper, but gave up 3+ on xG. I’m expecting goals and the odds look great value. 1.95 is worth a reasonable bet.

The Ultra Says:
Three points win on Over 2.5 goals at 1.95 with BETDAQ Exchange.

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