FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews the games between SPEZIA v INTER MILAN and CADIZ v GETAFE both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SPEZIA V INTER MILAN
7.45pm We have another cracking Friday night around Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have action from Serie A and then a massive relegation battle in La Liga later in the evening. We start in Serie A with Spezia hosting Inter Milan. Playing on a Friday night gives Inter Milan a little longer to recover ahead of their Champions League second leg against Porto next week. They’re in a decent position in that after a 1-0 win, but they are away from home – they finished the first leg with an xG of 2.07 so they will be disappointed to only have a one goal lead. After Napoli lost to Lazio last weekend, Inter are now 15 points behind them in the title race, fair to say that they aren’t bridging that gap! There was a time when the sides returned from the World Cup that it looked like Inter might be able to mount a title challenge – they beat Napoli in their first game back and closed the gap but to be honest Napoli have been by far and away the best side in Italy this season. Inter have dropped more points than usual – they’ve actually already lost seven times in Serie A this season – the most out of the top five in the table. They only lost seven times over the course of the 2020/21 and 2021/22 season so when you look at that stat you can see they definitely have gone backwards this season.
With all that being said, they won’t have to be at their best to beat Spezia here. There is definitely a gulf in class between the sides. Spezia are in the relegation battle, and after looking like the bottom three was nailed on a few weeks ago Verona have come roaring with a challenge to Spezia. Verona are just three points behind Spezia now, and they have a better goal difference too – Spezia are definitely under immense pressure now. They met each other last weekend, and it finished a pretty boring 0-0 – both sides were cagey given what was at stake. It’s been a while since Spezia won a game, and I would suggest their best hope here is a draw. Inter Milan come into the game trading as the heavy odds on favourites at 1.48. I thought they would be a little shorter too given how poor Spezia have been – their average xG created is only 1.1 and their average conceded is 1.7. Very close to the opposite to Inter Milan – their average created xG is 1.7 and their conceded is only 0.9. Given how little Spezia have created, I feel Inter can keep a clean sheet here. Both Teams Not To Score looks a very nice position at 1.88 in a game Inter should win comfortably.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SpzInt
CADIZ V GETAFE
8pm We move to La Liga to finish the evening with a huge relegation battle as Cadiz host Getafe. These two have actually been picking up quite a few points recently, and they start the weekend sitting in 15th and 16th at the moment. After being in the bottom three though, and they are still very much in the relegation battle. It’s a very tight relegation race in La Liga this season apart from Elche who are nailed to the bottom. As it stands Cadiz are only one point away from the bottom three and Getafe have the same amount of points as Sevilla and Almeria – then we have Valencia who are only two points behind Getafe and three behind Cadiz. Obviously it’s been a strange relegation battle involving clubs like Sevilla and Valencia – and you would assume those two clubs will come good eventually which leaves the likes of Cadiz and Getafe under immense pressure. This is obviously a huge game, but you also couldn’t say that both sides wouldn’t take a draw and move on! The loser is really in a bad position. From that point of view, Cadiz will be delighted to have home advantage in such a big game. I wouldn’t say home or away form is a major factor here because Cadiz have been pretty standard at home and Getafe haven’t been poor away from home either. They sit towards the bottom of the away form table, but more or less where they are in the table anyway. Whatever way you look at this game, it should be very close.
We have an open betting heat, as you would expect with the market expecting a close game, and Cadiz are the favourites at 2.62. Getafe are trading 3.5 and the draw is 2.92. I have to say it’s been a while since I saw the draw trading less than 3.0! Usually in very open markets the lowest we see the draw is 3.05, but it is hard to see anything bar a very close game here. I actually feel this game screams draw, but you have to question whether or not we are getting value at 2.92? Betting is all about getting value, especially in the long run, and I’m not sure I can justify backing the draw at sub 3.0. With that in mind I’m going to stay away from the match odds market and opt for a higher price. Both sides have been very poor in front of goal, their average xG is only 1.0. You would expect poor stats given they are both in the relegation battle, and I do feel they will cancel each other out here. I don’t see much value in the draw because I feel it’s the right price, but the 6.2 on 0-0 in the Correct Score market is worth a small bet in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
One point win 0-0 Correct Score at 6.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CadGet