FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews AC MILAN v TORINO and CADIZ v GIRONA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
AC MILAN V TORINO
7.45pm Another great weekend begins on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and Friday night football from Europe comes from Serie A and La Liga this week. We have two games with plenty of talking points to get through, and we start the evening in Serie A as AC Milan host Torino. AC Milan come into this game under immense pressure – they have resumed their season in poor form since the World Cup and have put together five games without a win at the worst possible time. They lost the Milan Derby 1-0 at the weekend – it was a tight affair without many chances, but Inter created more and that followed on from them being hammered 5-2 by Sassuolo and 4-0 by Lazio. They have dropped out of the Champions League spots, and start the weekend sitting in sixth. Things are still very tight in the race for the top four, but it’s fair to say AC Milan need a win. They need to steady the ship, and they need a confidence boost too. The worrying thing about this run from AC Milan is they aren’t playing good football – they have conceded a higher xG figure than they created in all five of those games, and they are creating low figures too. Things just aren’t working at the moment.
Despite their poor run of form, they come into this game trading as the odds on favourites. They are trading 1.86 at the time of writing, and I can’t see them being too popular at those odds given their recent run of form. Torino are having a good season too – there is an eight point gap between themselves and AC Milan in the table, but they sit in seventh just behind them. There’s nothing in their away form that would suggest they are poor on the road, and they should give AC Milan a decent game here. They have only lost once in their last six, and managed decent wins against Fiorentina and Udinese recently. They usually grind out results and you can see that in the under-lining numbers – they create what they concede basically, but they do meet AC Milan at a good time. I really feel Torino will make this game closer than the odds suggest, and I’m very happy with the 1.86 lay on the home side. They just aren’t playing well enough to be odds on here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) AC Milan to beat Torino at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AcmTor
CADIZ V GIRONA
8pm Next we move to La Liga for a game which will have a big impact on the relegation battle. Cadiz host Girona in what would have been an absolutely huge game for both sides if it happened last weekend, but Girona’s win over Valencia has given them a good cushion. Such is the amount of sides involved in the relegation battle in La Liga this season, Girona start the weekend sitting up in 11th but they are only five points away from Cadiz in the relegation zone. Girona will be delighted to be sitting in mid-table, but at the same time they know they are only a couple of losses away from major danger. Apart from Elche who are certain to go down, the relegation race is unbelievably open! Girona have mainly relied on their home form this season, which does make this game interesting. They have only managed six points away from home all season, and they have 18 at home. I wouldn’t say that Cadiz are very strong at home, but they are unbeaten here since resuming their season after the World Cup. They have been creating some good chances since coming back and only put in one very poor performance away to Sevilla. I know they lost 4-1 last weekend, but they finished the game with an xG of 1.5 and we can forgive them that away to Athletic Bilbao.
We have a very open market here, and I don’t agree with the odds. Girona come into the game as the favourites at 2.62 with Cadiz trading 3.05. I know Cadiz have been very poor at the back this season, but Girona have been pretty average away from home. I would definitely have the sides priced closer together in the market, but I respect the fact that when you look at the overall under-lining numbers you can clearly see Girona have been creating a lot more than Cadiz. However, they are still conceding a fair amount of chances – their average xG conceded is 1.5 which is reasonably high, I know it’s not over 2.0 like Cadiz but I feel home advantage can count for a lot here. I’m going to keep stakes small, but the Girona lay stands out at 2.62 – we should see a very close game here between two sides who are pretty evenly matched, especially with Cadiz having home advantage.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Girona to beat Cadiz at 2.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CadGir