LA LIGA FRIDAY: Our new European football tipster The Ultra previews Friday’s La Liga match between SEVILLA v REAL VALLADOLID with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
SEVILLA V REAL VALLADOLID
9pm Friday Night Football comes from La Liga tonight as Sevilla host Real Valladolid. Sevilla are odds on favourites for this one and expected to win; however they have only managed three draws since beating Real Betis on their first game back after lockdown. Real Valladolid have been very poor this season, with xG putting them in 19th place in La Liga and they have played well since returning from lockdown; although like Sevilla they won their first game back.
Real Valladolid are a poor side, however before we go steaming into Sevilla you have to look at what they have created in their last four games. They deservedly beat Real Betis but since then they have only created xG’s of 1.07 against Villarreal and 1.0 against Levante. They played well against Barcelona and a 0-0 draw was a very fair result there. Their home games haven’t seen many goals – they have only conceded 13 goals in 15 games this season, but as a sign of how they haven’t exactly been firing up front they have only won 7 of those games.
Clearly the behind closed doors element is helping away sides, but Real Valladolid are very poor away from home. They have only scored 11 goals in 16 games. On paper they have only conceded 22 but their xG against is over 32. I see Sevilla winning this game but I also see very few chances.
Apart from the 2-2 draw Sevilla had with Villarreal their games haven’t screamed goals and chances galore. Under 2.5 goals is 1.82 which looks good value, however I am keeping my staking reasonably low because of how poor Real Valladolid have been this season. Nonetheless I expect a reasonably quiet game and unders looks value.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.82 with BETDAQ Exchange.
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