MONDAY PREVIEW: The Ultra previews Monday’s matches between CADIZ v ATHLETIC BILBAO and VALENCIA v ATLETICO MADRID both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CADIZ V ATHLETIC BILBAO
7pm Monday night football in Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange comes from La Liga where we have two fascinating markets. We have two reasonably heavy favourites away from home, but neither are trading odds on at the time of writing and I’m sure we’ll have some big opinions on either side of the market. We start the evening with Cadiz hosting Athletic Bilbao – this should be an interesting game. Cadiz have started the season with two losses from their opening two games, and they are going to be in the relegation mix again this season. After a fantastic first season, they definitely suffered from second season syndrome last season – they needed a win on the final day to save themselves from going down. Their home form was poor last season – they finished bottom of the home from table – and they simply must improve that if they are going to stay in La Liga. Judging by the opening two performances by Cadiz they are in big trouble this season. They conceded an xG of 2.32 here against Real Sociedad and then conceded 3.05 away to Osasuna. Athletic Bilbao finished slap bang in the middle of those two clubs last season, and it’s hard to get away from the 2.2 on the away win here.
You don’t need me to tell you that we need to see more from Cadiz. They desperately need to improve because those first two xG figures have been woeful. Athletic Bilbao have put in two very solid performances – they were unlucky in a 0-0 draw with Mallorca on the opening weekend because they finished the game with an xG of 2.02 but then were a little lucky to beat Valencia 1-0 in a game that could have gone either way to be honest. A draw would have been a fair result. Cadiz will say that they can do better, they lost a man against Osasuna for example, but there was only 15 minutes left on the clock and they were 1-0 down at the time too. Everything points to an Athletic Bilbao win here to tell the truth and I’m surprised they aren’t trading odds on. As I said above, Cadiz have a terrible record at home too. It’s definitely a minor worry that Bilbao didn’t win as many games away from home last season as they would have liked – they only managed 21 points from 19 games – so I will just reduce stakes a little, but the 2.2 is still worth a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Athletic Bilbao to beat Cadiz at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CadAth
VALENCIA V ATLETICO MADRID
9pm Another very interesting game from La Liga here as Valencia host Atletico Madrid. Once again it looks like Atletico are starting the season on the backfoot – they lost 2-0 at home to Villarreal last weekend, and given how strongly Real Madrid have started the season they just can’t afford to be losing games like that at home. We have very similar odds to the earlier kick off here, except Atletico are trading ten ticks shorter at the time of writing. Although Valencia only moved from 13th to 9th last season, they actually improved a lot. They made wholesale changes before the 2020/21 season and at one stage they were involved in the relegation battle too. It’s a massive credit to them however that they appear to have come out the other side of that, and I’d honestly like to see them contend for the European spots again. When things are going badly, it takes a brave decision to change course and hopefully it’s rewarded. They have opened this season with a win and a loss – they were unlucky in the loss too as I mentioned above – it was a very even game between themselves and Athletic Bilbao and a draw was a fair result. Last season Valencia were generally a little bit cagey and liked to keep their games tight. They didn’t create a huge amount because of that, and I’d be surprised if they didn’t line up quite negatively here.
This game will be all about whether Atletico can break down Valencia, and I feel the price of 2.1 is a very fair reflection of the situation here. I feel the market has the match odds pretty bang on, so I’m happy to look towards the side markets for the some value. Given Atletico are generally a side who work very hard without the ball and don’t like to play too open, I like Under 2.5 goals at 1.73. As I said above, I do expect Valencia to be very cagey here and this games creams cagey on paper to me. If I had to choose, I would feel Atletico grind out a close game in the second half and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a score line of 0-0 at half-time. Atletico only conceded an average xG of 1.0 per La Liga game last season, and it’s hard to see Valencia creating a lot of chances here. I couldn’t put anyone off backing Both Teams Not To Score here either at 1.9, but the Under 2.5 goals bet stands out.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ValAth