MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Monday’s matches between EMPOLI v ROMA and ALMERIA v OSASUNA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
EMPOLI V ROMA
7.45pm Monday night football on Betdaq Betting Exchange comes from Serie A and La Liga this week! We have another very exciting week ahead in the Champions League and Europa League, but we kick it off in Italy with Jose Mourinho’s Roma traveling to take on Empoli. After such a positive start to the season, I was surprised to see Roma lose 4-0 to Udinese last weekend. I know everyone has dropped point in Serie A now, but a win would have put them top! You can really see that Mourinho has created a buzz about Roma this season, and it will be interesting to see how they react to that defeat. We all know that we have been here before with Mourinho – he lands a major trophy, has the players and the fans behind him but then things start to go wrong and he loses the dressing room. He is definitely under less pressure at Roma so that might not happen, but let’s see! Empoli have had a solid start to the season – they have recorded four draws from their five games. The best side they played was Fiorentina and they didn’t do too badly. The game finished 0-0 and they only conceded an xG of 1.25. They will be tough to break down for Roma, but they might not offer much going forward.
Roma come into the game as odds on favourites, they are currently trading 1.68 at the time of writing, but I wouldn’t be rushing to take those odds. I know Empoli haven’t created much going forward, but their results show that they are hard to beat. They have conceded xG figures of 0.92, 1.25, 0.83, 0.52 and 2.0. Pretty solid at the back, I know the opposition haven’t been as good as Roma, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game turn out a lot closer than odds of 1.68 suggest. The bet that stands out for me however is Under 2.5 goals at 2.1. Looking at the stats I fully expect Unders to be odds on rather than Over 2.5 goals – I know Roma have scored plenty already this season, and then shipped four goals last weekend of course, but Empoli are going to make this game very tight. Roma are going to have to work very hard to get the win here in my opinion, I wouldn’t put anyone off a small Roma lay from a value point of view but I’m very happy with 2.1 on Under 2.5 goals.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EmpRom
ALMERIA V OSASUNA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish the evening as Almeria host Osasuna. This is definitely not a glamorous tie by La Liga standards, but it is interesting from a betting point of view. We have an exceptionally open market as you would expect. Osasuna have made a bright start to the season with three wins from their opening four games – they are your classic mid-table La Liga side to be honest, and it’s hard to see them finishing anywhere else! They will fancy their chances of beating an Almeria side who came up from the Segunda. Almeria topped the Segunda table but they finished level on points with Real Valladolid and only one point ahead of Eibar. They lost nine games in the Segunda last season which was a pretty poor stat given allowing for the fact they won. You would assume that they will struggle to stay up in La Liga this season, but they did managed a win against Sevilla already this season! I know Sevilla have really struggled at the start of the season, but they was a great result for Almeria. Osasuna have also beaten Sevilla – they beat them on the opening weekend and have since added two wins just coming up short against Real Betis. It’s easy to see why we have an open market here, and to be honest it’s hard to see anything bar a very close game.
Almeria have generally tried to keep games tight, but they have seen plenty of action in their games so far. Osasuna have a very similar profile in that sense – both sides have had Over 2.5 goals land in two of their four games. When you look at this game, it’s easy to expect a pretty cagey and close affair, but looking deeper at the xG figures I think it’s worth having a small bet on goals in this game. Over 2.5 goals is trading 2.32 and both sides have created and conceded enough to suggest goals here. I’m keen to keep stakes small, because we will need a spark in the first half to get things going, but I feel if we see a goal in the opening 30 minutes or so then the game will open up a lot. Both Teams To Score is trading 1.99, and I feel the 2.32 on Overs offers a small bit of value.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 2.32 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AlmOsa