MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Monday’s games between TORINO v CREMONESE and GETAFE v VALENCIA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
TORINO V CREMONESE
7.45pm Another week begins on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with Monday night football coming from Serie A and La Liga. We have two very interesting markets to start the week, and we kick off the action in Serie A as Torino host Cremonese. Torino have been having an excellent season, and started this matchday sitting seventh. They have a big gap to the top six, and they are unlikely to get a European spot at the end of the season even if there are extra spots on offer depending on who wins the Coppa etc. They also have Juventus just behind them, and surely they will overtake them before the end of the season. Despite that though, Torino still have to be delighted with their season – they have been keeping games as tight as possible, and they have been very hard to beat this season. They broke a little unbeaten run last weekend as they lost to AC Milan, but they didn’t play too badly. I don’t think Torino are in a situation where any game is a “must win” game, however with Cremonese nailed to the bottom of the table and Torino having home advantage – this is basically a must win game because you can’t afford top drop points against the worst team in the league!
Torino come into the game trading as the odds on favourites, and they are an appealing bet at 1.71. Cremonese have actually yet to win a game in Serie A this season after playing 22 games – they have only managed eight draws. The only positive thing you could say about Cremonese is that more of their draws have come away from home, compared to at home! They’ve picked up five away draws, but I still can’t see past a Torino win here. Cremonese are conceding an average xG of 1.9 per game in Serie A this season, and they aren’t any better going forward either – they have huge issues at both ends of the pitch, and while I know Torino don’t blow teams away – I feel the 1.71 is too big to ignore here. If Torino are were creating a higher average xG figure, they could be a Max Bet at the odds but their average xG is a little low so I will just reduce stakes a little. The 1.71 is still cracking value though, and it’s hard to see past the home win here – Cremonese just aren’t close to Serie A standard.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Torino to beat Cremonese at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TorCre
GETAFE V VALENCIA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish the evening as Getafe host Valencia. This is a huge relegation six-pointer with both sides sitting in the bottom three at the moment! Elche are nailed to the bottom of the table and certain to go down, but it’s a very open race outside of them. Getafe sit second bottom with 19 points and then Valencia have 20, but a win here for either side would see them climb up the table. Despite both being in the bottom three, they are under pressure of course but they aren’t in a terrible position (yet!) given how open the relegation race is in La Liga this season. Of course, if there is a loser here they will be on the backfoot – we have a very open market here. Getafe are the favourites, but only just – there’s actually only two ticks between the sides with Getafe trading 2.9 and Valencia 2.92. As you would imagine given both sides are sitting in the bottom three, both have poor under-lining numbers and neither have standout home or away form. Getafe are still in the bottom three on the home form table, and with Valencia only managing six points away from home this season they sit in the bottom three on the away form table! It’s fair to say we won’t see a great standard of football in this game, but there is a lot on the line so that’s always good viewing!
With Valencia having so many issues away from home, I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 2.92 here. They have been very poor since resuming their season after the World Cup, and have dropped down the table like a stone five losses from their last six games. Looking at their xG figures, I really don’t expect them to go down but they need to turn things around – they need a confidence boosting win, just to change the direction and morale at the moment! They are creating marginally more chances than they concede this season, so that is a positive. Getafe have also been poor since returning from the World Cup, but they are creating OK under-lining numbers. They played superbly against Barcelona for example when losing 1-0 – their main issues are coming up front, they aren’t creating many chances, and they aren’t even taking those chances! They are scoring less than a goal per game at the moment. The market is expecting a cagey low scoring affair here with Under 2.5 goals trading 1.46 but I like Under 1.5 goals at 2.44 – I really wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 draw here, but we might see a 1-0 winner – I can’t see many chances in this one.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 1.5 goals at 2.44 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GetVal