MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Monday’s games between INTER MILAN v EMPOLI and VALENCIA v ALMERIA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
INTER MILAN V EMPOLI
7.45pm Monday night football from Europe comes from Serie A and La Liga this week, with two interesting markets to look at on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We had the shock news out of Italy on Friday night that Juventus were deducted 15 points after an investigation into their transfer dealings, which moved Inter Milan up to third before a ball was even kicked! We start Monday night with Inter hosting Empoli, and they’ll be hoping to notch up three points here to lock in that top four spot this season. It’s been well documented that Inter have been off the pace this season – they dropped plenty of points prior to the World Cup, but a win over Napoli when the season resumed might have got them back into the title race. I think the draw with Monza and then Napoli hammering Juventus probably put that Inter title challenge on the backfoot, but the race for the top four was looking quiet open before that Juventus news on Friday. What was terrible news for Juventus, was good news for clubs like Inter and those in behind. Inter were always likely to take up a top four spot, and it probably opens the door for the likes of Lazio, Atalanta and Roma!
The market is confident on an Inter win, with the home side trading as short as 1.31 at the time of writing. That is actually the shortest price in Serie A for this Matchday as we had some open markets the weekend. Empoli have resumed their season with three unbeaten games however, and two of those came away to Udinese and Lazio. I know they aren’t quite at the level of Inter, but Empoli have definitely shown the signs that they can make life difficult for Inter. In the end, I see Inter grinding out a win but I wouldn’t be rushing to lump on the 1.31 personally. Inter were trading around the same odds to beat Verona with home advantage last weekend, and they grinded their way to a 1-0 win. Their xG was only 0.58 and I know they kept Verona down to a very low xG too, but they didn’t exactly create much. Empoli look a lot more solid compared to Verona, and I feel we’ll see another low scoring game here. Under 2.5 goals is trading 2.48 and that looks a very nice value option here. The market is clearly expecting goals from Inter, but I expect Empoli to keep the score line very respectable.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntEpl
VALENCIA V ALMERIA
8pm We move to La Liga to finish the evening as Valencia host Almeria. At the moment, it looks like we’re going to have a very entertaining relegation battle in La Liga with multiple sides involved. You’d have to say that Almeria, although they started the weekend sitting in 13th, are going to be one of those sides because they started the weekend only two points away from the bottom three. Valencia are just above them in the table, but they have a little extra cushion of one point but I suppose a bad run of results could see them in trouble given the situation. That makes this fixture a big game for both sides, as a win for either would definitely be a big boost away from danger. Valencia lost a huge game at the start of the month with a 1-0 loss here against Cadiz, and that meant they have lost both La Liga games since returning after the World Cup. Almeria are also without a win since the World Cup, but they have had a reasonably tough fixture list. They had to play Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad in their last two games, but they would have been delighted to get a point against Atletico Madrid while they also picked up a point in their first game back away to Cadiz. The market is reasonably confident on a home win. Valencia are trading 1.65 at the time of writing, and in fairness although the sides are beside each other in the table, the Valencia performances have been much better than Almeria this season.
When you look at the under-lining numbers, there’s only one winner here. Almeria have been very poor away from home this season – indeed they sit bottom of the away form table with only two points all season. They have been relying on their home form to stay up this season! Plus Almeria have been very poor at the back; they are conceding an average xG of 2.0 per game this season and only creating an average close to 1.0 going forward. They are stats you see from a side battling relegation really. Valencia haven’t resumed their season in great form so I’m not going to go mad with stakes here, but they have close to the opposite figures of Almeria. They are creating an average xG of 1.7 going forward, and when you couple that with how poor Almeria have been at the back especially with their away form I’m happy to take the 1.65 on Valencia here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Valencia to beat Almeria at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ValAlm