MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Monday’s games between LAZIO v SAMPDORIA and VILLARREAL v GETAFE both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LAZIO V SAMPDORIA
7.45pm Monday night football in Europe comes from Serie A and La Liga this week, and we have two interesting markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We kick off the evening in Italy as Lazio host Sampdoria. Lazio are one of the sides that have really benefitted from Juventus getting docked 15 points after an investigation into their transfer dealings, and they started this matchday sitting just outside the top four. To be even in the top four race at this stage of the season is great for Lazio, but they have a lot of work to do. They started two points behind AC Milan and Roma, with Atalanta starting the weekend just one point behind Lazio. Looking at the table, and Lazio’s chance of getting Champions League football, this is a must win game. They have home advantage against a side sitting in the bottom three – you simply can’t afford to drop points in fixtures like this if you want to compete for a top four finish. Sampdoria have become adrift in the bottom three too, starting the weekend eight points behind Spezia sitting in 17th. They are almost certain to go down.
The market is expecting a home win here with Lazio trading 1.48 at the time of writing. I have to say I expected to see Lazio trading a little shorter when I clicked into the market. Lazio have definitely been over-performing this season in front of goal, and perhaps that’s why they are trading close to 1.5 to beat a side sitting in the bottom three. Their average xG is 1.4 this season, but they are actually scoring an average of 1.7 – that’s a big enough difference and it’s the same at the back too. Their actual goals conceded is an average of 0.8, but their average xG is 1.2. They could easily be out of the top four race, but results have gone their way. Sampdoria clearly have very poor stats giving they’ve only managed 11 points all season. Although they have been poor at the back, up front they have been woeful. Their average goals scored is 0.5 per game this season, and while you couldn’t be sure how many goals will Lazio score here, I’m confident that they can keep a clean sheet. Both Teams Not To Score looks a very attractive price at 1.74, and it’s worth three points at those odds.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.74 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LazSam
VILLARREAL V GETAFE
8pm We move to La Liga to finish the evening as Villarreal host Getafe. We have an interesting market here with Villarreal odds on at 1.73, but they have been in freefall lately losing their last four games. They did have to play Barcelona in that run, but they have lost 3-1 to Elche and 4-2 to Mallorca recently which are two very disappointing results. It’s been a very disappointing run for Villarreal, who seem to have fallen out of the race for European spots with that run – maybe they are missing Unai Emery now who moved to Aston Villa. At the time I felt that was a big step down to be honest, but it shows the pull of the Premier League at the moment. Getafe might be in the relegation battle, but they come into this game unbeaten in their last three and hey have been playing very good football recently. I would say that they have been playing their best football of the season – even recently in their 1-0 loss away to Barcelona they finished the game with an xG of 1.77 and kept Barcelona down to an xG of 0.76. They were unlucky to lose that game. In their last two away games they’ve played superbly against Barcelona and then picked up a draw at Atletico Madrid, again finishing the game with a higher xG figure than they conceded. Although they “only” beat Valencia 1-0 last Monday night, they finished the game with an xG of 2.53 and could have easily scored three goals. I feel this is going to be a very difficult game for Villarreal.
I have to say I was surprised to see Villarreal trading 1.73. Obviously they come into the game in poor form, while Getafe are on a good run. There is a lot of distance between the two in the league table, so I can understand why Villarreal are the clear favourites I just wouldn’t have them as short as 1.73 here. It’s not like Getafe have been poor away from home either, and I fully expect a closer game than the odds suggest. Most of Villarreal’s really poor performances have come away from home, so obviously having home advantage is a big factor here. For that reason I will reduce stakes a little – I feel we’re getting a lot of value here laying Villarreal, even getting up to Max Bet levels but three points feels the right stake given Villarreal are clearly more comfortable at home. Getafe are in great form though, and it’s a good time to support them in the market in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Villarreal to beat Getafe at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VilGet