MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Monday’s games between SASSUOLO v CREMONESE and OSASUNA v CELTA VIGO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SASSUOLO V CREMONESE
5.30pm Monday night football from Europe comes from Serie A and La Liga on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week. We have a huge week coming up around Europe, it’s crunch time in the second legs of the Champions League, and the Last 16 of the Europa League begins too. We have some massive games to look forward to! Compared to what’s coming, it’s a less glamorous start to the week on Monday, but we do have two interesting markets. We start the evening in Serie A with Sassuolo hosting Cremonese. After going 23 games without a win, Cremonese finally recorded their first win of the season last Tuesday against Jose Mourinho’s Roma. There was plenty of drama, and Jose Mourinho even got a red card, but Cremonese grinded out a 2-1 win. They are still going down this season – they have far too much work to do to even get back in touch – they started this matchday eight points behind Spezia sitting in 17th. Sassuolo will be expected to win this game with home advantage, and they come into the game trading as the odds on favourites. They are trading 1.89 at the time of writing, and I’m sure they will be a popular bet.
Before rushing into backing Sassuolo – it’s worth pointing out that Cremonese have managed nine draws this season. Despite having to wait so long for a win, it hasn’t just been a case of back the side Cremonese are playing! I know six points away from home is a very poor return, but that’s a 50% loss rate if you’re backing against them. They have been woeful at the back this season, conceding an average xG of 1.8 per game this season. I can’t see them winning here, and their best hope seems to be another draw. Sassuolo have struggled to create a lot of chances this season – their average xG is a low 1.2 – with Cremonese likely to approach this game in a negative fashion, we could see a very cagey affair. I feel Sassuolo will grind out a win in the end, but I much prefer Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 a few ticks bigger than the Sassuolo win at 1.95. Both sides have very poor attacking stats, I’d be surprised if we saw a lot of chances and goals here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SasCre
OSASUNA V CELTA VIGO
8pm We move to La Liga to finish the evening as Osasuna host Celta Vigo. We have an exceptionally open market here – there’s actually only two ticks between the sides with Osasuna 2.9 and Celta Vigo 2.88! There’s a good bit of distance between the sides in the table because Celta Vigo haven’t been too far away from the relegation battle this season. Obviously they are far too good to go down, or even get into a real relegation battle, but they did start the season very slowly. If you just looked at the table, you might be surprised by the prices here. However, if you look at the under-lining numbers it’s easy to see why Celta Vigo are marginal favourites. Both sides have the exact same average xG created this season at 1.3 – Celta Vigo’s average conceded is the same, while Osasuna’s is marginally worse at 1.4. There really isn’t anything between them there. I feel the key difference here will be current form. If you look at the recent performances from Osasuna they have been very poor – they’ve only lost twice in their last six games, but they have been very lucky. They have conceded a higher xG than they created in those four games where they got results, while Celta Vigo have been creating a lot of chances recently.
Celta Vigo’s last four xG figures have been 2.80, 1.48, 1.04 (v Atletico Madrid) and 2.83. Osasuna have been conceding high figures, not creating them. They have conceded figures of 2.33, 2.13, 2.26 and 1.94 in their last four games. They had to play Real Madrid here on that run, and they were comfortably beaten 2-0. I know there isn’t much between the sides in the market, but I would have Celta Vigo a little shorter and Osasuna a little bigger. Home advantage is always nice, but it’s not like Celta Vigo have been poor away from home this season or Osasuna have been rock solid here. I don’t see it being a huge factor here, and I believe it’s a good time to back Celta Vigo. Just looking at the under-lining numbers, we have two sides going in different directions at the moment and everything lines up for the Celta win in my opinion. 2.88 is a nice price, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them a little shorter by kick off.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Celta Vigo to beat Osasuna at 2.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/OsaCel
