MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Monday’s games between HELLAS VERONA v ROMA and ELCHE v GETAFE both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
HELLAS VERONA V ROMA
5.30pm We kick off another fantastic week around Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with Monday night football from Serie A and La Liga. We have a massive week coming up with the final Group games of the Champions League and Europa League, and we have European action every day until we break for the World Cup in a few weeks. We kick the week off with Hellas Verona hosting Jose Mourinho’s Roma. Although Roma suffered a bit setback last weekend when losing 1-0 to Napoli, they will be fully expected to bounce back here. Hellas Verona sit in the bottom three coming into this game, and they have lost their last six games in Serie A. They have only managed one win all season which came here against Sampdoria, who are also going to be involved in the relegation battle this season. Although the xG table moves Verona out of the bottom three, they don’t move up too much. Roma actually move up more or less the same – they are sitting in second on the xG table and have played some excellent football this season. It’s a shame that their results haven’t reflected their performances because they would be in the title race, and that would have made great viewing. I have to say I was very surprised when I clicked into the market and saw Roma trading 1.94.
That 1.94 is very appealing, and I’m happy to have a Max Bet at the odds. Verona have been playing at a very limited level this season, and it’s easy to forgive Roma losing a very tight game last weekend against Napoli. They already bounced back with a win in the Europa League, and they can bounce back in Serie A now. Given Verona’s position in the table, it’s obvious that they are conceding more chances than they are creating. Their figures aren’t exceptionally poor but when compared to Roma there is only one winner here in my opinion. Roma have been creating an average xG of 2.1 per game and only conceding 0.7 – they are very impressive figures! Verona played well in their last game when losing to AC Milan so I can see why some punters want to lay Roma, but I just can’t accept that they should be as big as 1.94 here given the way they have played this season. I’d have them closer to 1.7, and hopefully we can add to the current good run of Max Bets!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Roma to beat Hellas Verona at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/HelRom
ELCHE V GETAFE
8pm We move to La Liga to finish the evening as Elche host Getafe in a massive relegation battle. Elche actually finished ahead of Getafe in La Liga last season, but they are in big trouble this season. At the moment they are nailed to the bottom of the table with only four points from their 11 games, and they have become detached too in recent weeks. They started the weekend five points behind Girona sitting in 19th and it’s hard to see how they get out of the bottom three unless they put together some wins very quickly. Even then they are still in trouble because a few wins is only bridging the gap and not putting them out of danger. It’s only to take an incredible effort to not only get back into the mix, but actually go past three sides. Obviously they will view this has a very “winnable” fixture with home advantage against Getafe, but they have find to win this season! It’s no surprised to see a very open market here, and I can only see a very close game too. I know the odds aren’t too far away from 3.0 on all outcomes, but this is a game that would actually fit those odds. Getafe are definitely in danger even though they are outside the bottom three, they have put three draws together in a row but they haven’t played well away from home this season. They did managed to beat Osasuna 2-0 despite conceding a higher xG than they created, but they have been very poor in their last two games. They only managed xG figures of 0.22 against Celta Vigo and 0.47 against Rayo Vallecano. They are averaging an xG of 1.0 per La Liga game this season, clearly struggling to create chances.
Despite Getafe’s xG figures and performances being average, there isn’t anything positive to say about Elche in that department. The xG table leaves them sitting bottom of the table so they can’t say that they are unlucky – they are where they deserve to be. They are creating less than Getafe because their average xG going forward is only 0.9 – that’s only marginal but where the huge difference comes in this game is at the back. Elche are conceding a whopping average xG of 2.8 per game which is incredibly high. I usually say you don’t win many games when conceding twice, but what about three times! It’s easy to see why Elche are sitting bottom of the table and have yet to win a game this season. I know we’re going to have a close game here, but I wouldn’t have Elche as favourites. I was going to have a small bet on Getafe, but I’m happy with a more confident bet laying Elche at 2.8 and having the draw on our side.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Elche to beat Getafe at 2.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ElcGet