BUNDESLIGA / LA LIGA SATURDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews STUTTGART v BAYERN MUNICH, GLADBACH v SCHALKE and REAL MADRID v ALAVES on Saturday all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
STUTTGART V BAYERN MUNICH
2.30pm We have another excellent Saturday in Europe with all football bets 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange today! We start with the German Champions away to Stuttgart after a surprising draw last weekend with Werder Bremen. They were involved in a remarkable game midweek in the Champions League when they won 3-1 against Salzburg but actually loss the game 1.37 to 3.23 on xG. That’s very rare for Bayern Munich and they have actually struggled to create a lot of chances in their last three games. Their last three xG’s read 1.37, 1.58 and 1.37. Not like them!
Stuttgart have drawn their last four games and they would definitely take another draw here! Their games have seen both teams score a lot, but I feel there is value going with under 3.5 goals at odds against here with Bayern not creating a lot. It’s always risky going with unders in the Bundesliga because it is an excellent league with a lot of goals, but I feel it’s worth it here at 2.26 especially with 0% commission on offer. I wouldn’t be keen on Bayern at 1.3 in the match odds market either given their xG figures, but as they did in midweek they will probably find a way to win.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 3.5 goals at 2.26 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQStuBay
GLADBACH V SCHALKE
5.30pm We stay in the Bundesliga for our next bet. Schalke have started to pick up some draws recently, but it’s still here to believe the last time they won a Bundesliga game was in January. I think COVID19 wasn’t even in the news then, and now the world has changed. Ironically that win came against Gladbach and perhaps Schalke will see this fixture has a chance to reset! We picked up their performances early looking at their xG fixtures, and we have made a lot betting against them both at the end of the last season and this season.
What I have seen in recent weeks has been improvement from them. The reason I was against them so much was their lack of creating chances but slowly that is changing. They are still putting in some terribly performances but they created an xG of 2.36 against Mainz and 2.06 against Werder Bremen. Those figures are very good for them. They are still finishing games with 0.16, 0.29, 0.20 and 0.16 this season but they are slowly improving. For that reason I will slightly lower stakes, but with Gladbach in good form I’m happy to take a shade of odds against on them covering the 1.5 goal handicap here. 2.02 looks excellent value.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Gladbach -1.5 goals to beat Schalke at 2.02 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQGlaSch
REAL MADRID V ALAVES
8pm We end the day in La Liga with Real Madrid and you know what that means, it’s never dull with Real Madrid! They were outplayed in La Liga last weekend against Villarreal and they were lucky to pick up a point. They did put in an impressive display against Inter Milan in the Champions League midweek though, and who knows where the 4-1 loss to Valencia came from before the International break! It would take a brave punter to steam into them at 1.4 today, even against Alaves.
At the end of October Alaves managed a 1-1 draw with Barcelona so I wouldn’t be fully confident on Real Madrid winning here. If feel that the 1.4 is too short, but it’s also not a case of “it’s too short but they’ll get the job done” either. Alaves generally play an open game and with Real leaking goals at the back we should see plenty of action this evening. Real have had a host of goals recently and the xG figures from Alaves point to goals too. I’m surprise to see over 2.5 goals as big as 1.65, and that looks worth a decent bet at those odds.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQRmaAla
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