BUNDESLIGA / LIGUE 1 SATURDAY: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Saturday’s feature games in Bundesliga / Ligue 1 including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
KOLN V BAYERN MUNICH
2.30pm We don’t have our usually blockbuster weekend in Europe this week as we only have one La Liga game all weekend with a limited Copa Del Rey fixture list, but we have a fantastic day ahead in the Bundesliga and Ligue 1. All football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange today too! We start the day in the Bundesliga with Koln hosting the Champions Bayern Munich. I felt that they had another title wrapped up prior to their shock loss last weekend against Gladbach. It was an average Bayern performance to be honest and they didn’t deserve to win. In their other losses this season, they were pretty unlucky if you look at the underlining numbers but they only managed an xG of 1.62 with home advantage, and Gladbach aren’t having a good season either. They still have a nice advantage at the top of the table, but they won’t want to hand Dortmund any more confidence and they need to bounce back with a win here. Usually games between Koln and Bayern are very entertaining, so we can expect goals.
The last six meetings between these sides has saw over 2.5 goals win, and usually we get more than just three goals! Five of the last six meetings have saw four or more goals, and we had a 3-2 thriller between the sides at the start of the season. Koln come into the game in good form, and they will be confident enough to have a go at Bayern. They are sitting in the Europa League spots at the moment which is a massive improvement on recent seasons. They have been close to relegation battles at times, but their xG figures have always shown that they are a very good side. They concede a lot of sloppy goals, but they do create plenty of chances. The market is fully expecting goals here too, with over 2.5 goals trading shorter than the Bayern Munich win at 1.33! The value bet here is Both Teams To Score in my view, both sides like to play an open game and they gel together very well – BTTS is 1.57 and that’s too big.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.57 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQKolByn
GLADBACH V BAYER LEVERKUSEN
5.30pm We stay in the Bundesliga next as Gladbach host Bayer Leverkusen. This is an interesting game, can Gladbach follow up their shock win over Bayern Munich last weekend? This is also a massive game for Leverkusen who are in with an excellent chance of getting into the Champions League this season. They have been quite consistent in recent years, and they will fancy their chances of going past Hoffenheim and Freiburg to get into the top three and back into the Champions League after a few years out of the competition. With RB Leipzig and Wolfsburg having such poor seasons, you’d have to be confident Leverkusen will finish in the top four. For that to happen though, they can’t afford to slip up in games like this. Apart from that Bayern win last weekend, Gladbach haven’t had much to cheer about this season. They are sitting in the bottom half of the table, and they have been conceding a host of goals. What makes this fixture all the more interesting is Leverkusen don’t exactly come into it in good form.
Leverkusen have gone five games without a win now in all competitions. It’s hard to say that they were unlucky either – they have created xG figures of 2.0+ in some games, but they have also conceded 2.0+. For example, they created an xG of 2.11 against Union Berlin last weekend, but they conceded 2.94. You can see why we have a very open market here, as it’s hard to be fully confident on either side. Much like the Koln v Bayern Munich game earlier in the day, this game screams goals. Both have been conceding chances for fun, and they also both like to play an open game. The market is fully expecting goals too however, with over 2.5 goals trading 1.51. I would actually have those odds a little shorter however, and that’s the value call in what should be a very entertaining end-to-end game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see over 2.5 goals collect before half-time here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.51 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQGlaLen
PSG V BREST
8pm We move over to France to finish the day in Ligue 1 as PSG host Brest. Although PSG effectively have the title won already with an 11 point lead halfway through the season, there are plenty of question marks about this side. There’s a lot going on at the moment – the manager is definitely thinking about going to Manchester United in the summer, and one wonders are all the stars gelling together as a team. Messi hasn’t really hit form this season, he was out with Covid19 but you feel he’s been going through the motions in Paris since he got here. It will be interesting to see what type of performances he puts in when we get to the Champions League knockouts in a few weeks. The reality for PSG is that they can only beat what’s in front of them, and they have an uncatchable lead already. They have only managed one win in their last five leagues games however.
The market is fully expecting PSG to get back to winning ways here as they are trading as short as 1.24 at the time of writing. They shouldn’t have to get out of second gear to beat the average Brest to be honest. They were involved in a relegation battle last season and finished in 17th, just one point away from the relegation Playoff. They have improved on that this season to be sitting in 13th at the moment but they are levels below PSG. Brest will be happy with their season nonetheless, and they won’t be in a relegation fight this season. I feel this game is a question of how many goals can PSG score rather than will they win, and when you look at the xG figures from Brest I don’t see PSG running riot. I feel Brest can keep the score line respectable, but I also feel they will be quiet negative with their tactics. Instead of backing PSG to cover the handicap, I like Both Teams Not To Score at 2.04 here – I can see PSG running out easy 1-0 or 2-0 winners, and Brest will struggle to create chances as they sit back for most of the game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 2.04 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQPsgBre