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BUNDESLIGA SATURDAY: Our new European football tipster The Ultra got off to a flying start last weekend. Now for Saturday’s Bundesliga games with recommended BETDAQ bets including BAYERN MUNICH v EINTRACHT FRANKFURT at 5.30pm.

The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.

The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.


2.30pm We have a brilliant day ahead in the Bundesliga. Wolfsburg pulled out a late win on their return last weekend and now they can chase a Europa League spot. While Dortmund returned very impressively and are hoping to challenge Bayern Munich for the title. They meet Bayern on Tuesday evening, and must go into that game on a high with a win here. I expect a very good game here – Wolfsburg sit in sixth and looking at their xG that’s where they should be while Dortmund have been excellent this season.

Wolfsburg’s success has come from their defence, only conceding a little over 1 xG per game. As always though, when a side puts a lot of effort into defence that comes at a cost of going forward and that has been reflected in their home wins this season. Dortmund have a lot of firepower, but they have been consistently outperforming their xG and that has to return to the mean at some point. I feel Dortmund are too short here at 1.81 on the BETDAQ Exchange. It’s tough to gauge what behind closed doors does to home and away form, but Dortmund haven’t been as good away compared to at home and with Wolfsburg solid at the back I feel Dortmund should be a lot bigger at 1.81.

The Ultra Says:
Two points lay Dortmund at 1.81 with BETDAQ Exchange.

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2.30pm Third v fifth. This should be a good game, it’s a shame it’s on at the same time as Wolfsburg v Dortmund actually. I will need two screens Saturday afternoon! There’s only two points between these two in the Bundesliga, so I expect a hard fought and close game. Gladbach bossed Eintracht Frankfurt last weekend and a similar performance would see off Bayer Leverkusen here. They have an excellent record at home too, averaging an xG of 2.5 per game. I landed my over 2.5 goals bet in the Bayer Leverkusen game on Monday night, and we may see a very similar story in this one.

Leverkusen are impressive going forward, averaging a little over 2 xG per game recently, but they have also given up a host of chances at the back. They are good team to back overs when the prices are right. Leverkusen’s conceded xG is nearly 2 away from home, while we know Gladbach are getting an xG of over 2.5 at home. Everything says goals here and I’m very confident – over 2.5 goals can’t be ignored at 1.55 on BETDAQ Exchange. It looks like one of the best bets of the weekend.

The Ultra Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 with BETDAQ Exchange.

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5.30pm Bayern Munich returned with a win last weekend, but they failed to cover the 2.5 goal handicap. In fairness, Union Berlin created so little going forward that it was no more than a hard training session for Bayern. Eintracht Frankfurt are struggling this season after selling their best players and they could be in for a long evening on Saturday. Bayern have an xG of over 3 in home games this season. It was a little surprising how bad Eintracht Frankfurt were after the break, considering they had plenty of time to make plans – especially at the back. I was very unimpressed with them.

We can expect goals here. It’s just a question of how many. Over 2.5 goals is only 1.28 and Eintracht Frankfurt could offer very little here. They have only collected seven points away from home this season. For that reason, I’m happy to go with Bayern -2.5 goals rather than back over 3.5 goals or Both Teams To Score. Bayern can do a number on Frankfurt here and given their expected home goals is over 3, the handicap at 2.06 -2.5 goals is appealing for a small bet.

The Ultra Says:
One point win Bayern Munich -2.5 goals to beat Eintracht Frankfurt at 2.06 with BETDAQ Exchange.

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