EUROPEAN FOOTBALL ACTION Sat: The Ultra previews Saturday’s games between AUGSBURG v BAYERN MUNICH, BARCELONA v ELCHE and GLADBACH v RB LEIPZIG all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
AUGSBURG V BAYERN MUNICH
2.30pm We have a cracking Saturday ahead in Europe, as we enjoy the final weekend on BETDAQ Betting Exchange before we head into an International break next week. We have some great fixtures from the Bundesliga and La Liga, and we start the say in the Bundesliga with the German Champions Bayern Munich away to Augsburg. Fair to say this should be one way traffic for Bayern Munich and the market expects an easy win too with the away side trading as short as 1.18 at the time of writing. Augsburg recorded a much needed win away to Werder Bremen last Friday night which moved them away from the bottom three, but they are still going to be a in relegation battle this season and there is a huge gulf in class between the sides here. I feel this is a case of how many goals can Bayern score rather than will they win. They have had a few setbacks in the Bundesliga already this season though, and they got held to another draw last week by Stuttgart. That was a strange performance – Stuttgart are another side who might be in the relegation battle this season and Bayern had home advantage too. Perhaps they had one eye on the Barcelona game midweek in the Champions League which they won 2-0.
Although on paper it looked like an easy win for Bayern, they actually conceded a higher xG to Barcelona than they created. They have a fantastic record against Barcelona recently, but Barcelona showed enough to get a result. It was a great game to watch in fairness. With Bayern trading so short in the match odds market, we’re going to have to look around the side markets for some value. Thoughts turn to the goals and handicap market. Most punters are expecting goals here with Over 2.5 goals as short as 1.29! Interestingly Augsburg have managed to keep the score line respectable plenty of times against Bayern and they even beat them 2-1 with home advantage last season. Apart from a 5-2 win for Bayern, you have to go back to 2018 to see Bayern score four or more again. Indeed, Bayern would have only covered a 1.5 goal handicap twice in the last eight Bundesliga meetings. Any Other Away Win is trading 2.5 here in the Correct Score market and that looks like a nice lay to me. I expect Bayern to win, but Augsburg can keep them down to three goals.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Any Other Away Win at 2.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AugBay
BARCELONA V ELCHE
3.15pm Next we move to La Liga where we have the shortest price of the day as Barcelona host Elche. Barcelona are trading as short as 1.11 at the time of writing and fair to say they’ll be a popular choice for any Betdaq Multiple this afternoon. To be honest it’s very difficult to see anything bar a Barcelona win here – I reckon this is definitely a case of how many goals can Barcelona score rather than will they win. As I said above, they might have lost 2-0 midweek in the Champions League to Bayern Munich but they actually played very well. They can hold their heads high, and the signs are that Barcelona are definitely coming back. They might not be able to challenge for the La Liga title this season because they still have a lot of work to do, but they seem to be recovering from losing Messi and all the money problems off the pitch quicker than expected. You can’t help but be impressed by their xG figures. Even against Bayern Munich they finished the game with an xG of 2.31. Add that to their recent figures of 2.53, 2.73, 4.81, 3.68 and 2.51. They are back banging in the goals for fun too – prior to that Bayern game they had scored 20 goals in five games. Things are really working for Barcelona at the moment, they have their confidence back and this should be another smooth win. They meet an Elche side who will definitely be involved in the La Liga relegation battle, and they have started the season with four losses and only one draw from their five games. They are already in the bottom three.
When you are struggling the last team you want to meet away from home is Barcelona! I’m sure Elche will see this game as a complete bonus if they get anything from, and I would expect them to set up very negatively and play for a 0-0. It worked for Rayo Vallecano on the opening day of the season, and it’s their best hope of a result. Once Barcelona opening the scoring though, I can see Elche losing their shape and then we’ll see plenty of goals. Barcelona are in such good form at the moment I just can’t see how Elche stop them going forward – I wouldn’t even let the Bayern loss dampen confidence given the xG figure they created. Barcelona can cover the 2.5 goal handicap given the amount of goals they have been scoring lately, and the 1.85 on that bet looks a very nice position this afternoon.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Barcelona -2.5 goals to beat Elche at 1.85 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarElc
GLADBACH V RB LEIPZIG
5.30pm We move back to the Bundesliga next and we have an exceptionally interesting market here as Gladbach host RB Leipzig. This is porbably the most interesting game of the game, we have a very competitive market and we also have question marks about both sides. RB Leipzig have had a very up and down week already – they beat Dortmund 3-0 last weekend and then lost again in the Champions League midweek. I wouldn’t put too much worry into losing to Real Madrid, but they are definitely on the back foot in that Group after losing their opening game to Shakhtar Donetsk. That was a massive shock – RB Leipzig had home advantage and they would have started the game trading around 1.25 too. Indeed, RB Leipzig have had a very up-and-down season already. Surely they won’t be happy with only eight points from six games. That leaves them sitting in mid-table, and another slow start to the season – they will be hoping to go on a good run mid-season to shoot up the table again for Champions League football next season. Gladbach have actually managed one more point than RB Leipzig from their six games, but after finishing in the top four in 2019/20 they have pretty much turned into a mid-table side.
Gladbach’s main issues over the last two season have been at the back. They conceded an average xG of 1.8 last season, and you aren’t winning many games when you concede two goals! This season they have mainly focused on being strong at the back – they have to address the issues after all, and that has resulted in them having reasonably low scoring games. They started off in their usually fashion with a 3-1 and 2-2, but the four fixtures since have all saw Under 2.5 goals land. The Over/Under 2.5 goals is definitely interesting here – Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.62 and that does look a little short to be honest. I know RB Leipzig like to play an open game, but as I said Gladbach are trying to keep things tight. Although Gladbach conceded an xG of 3.23 to Bayern, they did manage to grind out a 1-1 draw – you’re always up against it trying to stop Bayern but to their credit they managed it. It’s clear that RB Leipzig haven’t been at their best this season, and they might give away more chances than they can create here. I’d have a very open market with the two teams almost the same odds, so I’m happy to lay RB Leipzig at 2.34. It’s a nice position to have the draw on our side too.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) RB Leipzig to beat Gladbach at 2.34 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GldRbl