SATURDAY IN EUROPE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Saturday’s matches between ELCHE v ALAVES, INTER MILAN v AC MILAN, BAYERN MUNICH v RB LEIPZIG and OSASUNA v SEVILLA all including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ELCHE V ALAVES
1pm It’s great to have domestic league football back and we have a superb Saturday ahead with all football bets 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have some fantastic fixtures from La Liga, Serie A and the Bundesliga to enjoy today and I think today has it all – massive games at the bottom and top of tables. We start early in La Liga with Elche hosting Alaves in a relegation six pointer. Elche have had a fantastic run thus far in 2022 and they have shot up the table with an unbeaten four game run. They start the weekend five points outside the relegation zone, and six ahead of Alaves – a win here would see them pretty comfortable to be honest, with a loss bringing them back into the mix. They might be unbeaten in 2022, but they have been very lucky. They bagged a 2-2 draw against Real Madrid, but they conceded an xG of 5.24! It’s pretty rare to see an xG that high, and they were also very lucky to beat Villarreal and Espanyol – both times conceding a higher xG than they created. Although their results have turned, their performances haven’t changed and I would expect their results to come back into line with their performances soon.
Alaves are under a lot more pressure than Elche here as they start the weekend sitting in the bottom three. They have had to watch Elche and Getafe collect a lot of points lately, and these two will have their eye on Mallorca v Cadiz later who sit in between them. Alaves have gone ten games without a win since they beat Levante with home advantage who are rock bottom. Alaves four wins have come against Elche, Cadiz, Levante and remarkably Atletico Madrid. Three of those are very limited sides who are also in the relegation zone but we have to remember they face Elche again here who we also know are very limited. As always, it all comes down to the odds and I’m not surprised to see Elche trading 2.44 here rather than closer to evens. I would still have them a little bigger though and the draw makes a lot of appeal here at 3.15. We have two very limited sides here who don’t create many chances – a draw would be fine for Elche too and I can’t see much between the sides.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.15 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQElcAlv
INTER MILAN V AC MILAN
5pm Next we head to Serie A for the highlight of the day as Inter and Ac clash in the Milan Derby! Inter have really taken over at the top of Serie A in the last few weeks. They start the weekend four points clear of Napoli and AC Milan with a game in hand. We saw a very strong finish to the season from Inter last season and it appears the same thing is happening this season too. If AC Milan are to have any chance of stopping them lifting the title then they have to win this game – a draw isn’t enough at this stage. AC Milan have dropped a few points recently, but they have been unlucky – they lost 2-1 to Spezia but they created an xG of 2.40 and while the 0-0 draw was a fair result against Juventus, it just meant they lost further ground in the title race. AC Milan are getting into a little habit of starting the season strongly and then falling away. Inter have hit form in recent weeks and it’s hard to see past them here – I know these Milan Derbies are massive games and we will get a good price on Inter, but I can’t see past a one way traffic win here.
Inter come into the game on an unbeaten run of 14 games. They have drawn against Atalanta, AC Milan and Juventus in that run but in general they have been banging in goals for fun. There wasn’t much in the draws against Atalanta and Juventus, but they were very unlucky not to beat AC Milan. They finished the game with an xG of 2.55 in a 1-1 draw, and bossed a large part of the game. If we had a repeat performance, they’d have to be very unlucky not to win. Given the amount of chances and goals Inter have been creating and scoring this season, the 1.85 really appeals to me here and I’m happy to have a Max Bet. AC Milan just aren’t at the same level of Inter, and I’d have Inter more than ten ticks shorter here. They are a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Inter Milan to beat AC Milan at 1.85 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQIntAcm
BAYERN MUNICH V RB LEIPZIG
5.30pm Next we head to the Bundesliga for another cracking fixture as Bayern Munich host RB Leipzig. When you click into the market here, you are expecting Bayern to be short given how the season has gone for RB Leipzig. I wasn’t surprised to see Bayern trading 1.45 although I was hoping for a bigger price to get some extra value. I have said a lot in this column about how RB Leipzig sold their best stars to Bayern and have suffered greatly since, but all that doesn’t matter here. It’s a shame that we had a team that appeared to be challenging Bayern for the title last season, and now they aren’t even in the top four and Bayern are 1.45 to beat them. All that being said, RB Leipzig still have a fighting chance of a top four finish. They start the weekend in 6th and they are just three points away from Union Berlin in 4th – they have improved as the season has gone on after a very slow start and while they will very likely come up short here, they should give Bayern a good game at least.
What can you say about Bayern apart from the fact they have been superb this season. Even when they have had a shock loss, they have performed well when you look at their xG figures. Their worst performance of the season was probably the 2-1 loss here against Gladbach, and they still finished the game with a marginally higher xG figure than Gladbach. Since then they have bounced back with eight goals in two games against Koln and Hertha Berlin – they finished with an xG of 5.54 against Hertha which is incredibly impressive! Although I feel Bayern will get the job done here, I can see this game being very open and plenty of goals. I can understand why over 2.5 goals is trading as short as 1.4 but I was surprised to see Both Teams To Score as big as 1.6. That makes a lot of appeal here – as I said RB Leipzig have been improving in recent weeks and Bayern usually tend to concede the odd goal on their way to a big win. Even in the game against Hertha Berlin they still conceded despite absolutely bossing the game. Both Teams To Score looks the value in my view.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.6 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBayRbz
OSASUNA V SEVILLA
8pm We go back to La Liga to finish a superb day as Osasuna host Sevilla. When you look at the La Liga table you can’t help but feel disappointed for Sevilla. Real Madrid have dropped points with a loss and a draw from their last three games, but Sevilla haven’t managed to take advantage with two draws against Valencia and Celta Vigo. Those are games they really should be winning and I know they finished with a higher xG both times but they really should be getting the job done. I keep saying it’s a massive achievement for Sevilla to even be in the title race, but at the same time Real wouldn’t have been bothered by them in second to be honest – they had a real chance to put some pressure on Real and they just haven’t. Regardless of missed chances, they still find themselves four points behind and all they can do is win games and hope Real slip up somewhere. We are relying on Sevilla to make a title race in La Liga this season given how poor Atletico Madrid and Barcelona have been!
This is another fixture that Sevilla should win though, as Osausna are your classic mid-table La Liga side. They have picked up recent wins against Granada and Cadiz who are both towards the bottom of the table, and they have come up short against the better sides. They did pick up a 2-2 draw here against Barcelona however, which will give a lot of punters reason to lay Sevilla here. At the odds though I am a Sevilla backer at 2.3 – I feel they should be closer to 2.0 to back an average side like Osasuna. When the sides met in October, Sevilla bossed the game for a 2-0 win – they created an xG of 2.19 in a game they controlled. I can see a similar performance here, although obviously away from home might be a little trickier but we are getting good value at 2.3. Osasuna concede plenty of chances, while Sevilla are rock solid at the back – I feel that’s where the game will be won and the difference between the sides.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Sevilla to beat Osasuna at 2.3 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQOsaSev