SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s games between HERTHA BERLIN v BAYERN MUNICH, ATALANTA v NAPOLI and BARCELONA v ALMERIA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
HERTHA BERLIN V BAYERN MUNICH
2.30pm We have a cracking Saturday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with action all around Europe! We have three wonderful games from the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga with big favourites in two and a very competitive game in Italy. We start the day in the Bundesliga with the German Champions in action as Bayern Munich take on Hertha Berlin. We all know that Bayern haven’t been at their best this season, but they are still playing some top class football. They completed a perfect six from six in the Champions League midweek, and that actually created history as they became the first side to do that in back-to-back seasons. They had a difficult Group too this year with Barcelona and Inter Milan in it! Despite their Champions League success, they start this weekend one point behind league leaders Union Berlin. It’s fair to say that Union Berlin have been over-performing this season, but they are a rock solid side. I don’t think anyone doubts that Bayern will win the Bundesliga again, but it would be nice to see a title race. Dortmund have been well off the pace this season and without Haaland it’s hard to see them getting close. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bayern take the lead at the top of the table before the break for the World Cup though.
Hertha Berlin had to play in the relegation playoff game last season, and it’s hard to see past a Bayern win here. The market agrees with them trading as short as 1.29 at the time of writing. I feel this is a case of how many goals can Bayern score rather than will they win, although Hertha haven’t definitely improved this season. At the moment, they aren’t really in the relegation battle and their performances haven’t been that bad this season. Clearly they are still playing average football – conceding more chances than they are creating – but they are doing better than last season. Despite dropping points earlier in the season, Bayern have put together a decent winning run now in all competitions. They didn’t create a host of chances midweek against Inter, but last weekend in the Bundesliga they hammered Mainz scoring six goals along the way. Away from home in all competitions, they have scored nine goals in their last three games and that included away to Barcelona too. I think we’ll see Bayern cover the handicap here, and the 1.63 -1.5 goals really stands out here. With Bayern playing so well, I’m happy to have a Max Bet at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Bayern Munich -1.5 goals to beat Hertha Berlin at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/HerBay
ATALANTA V NAPOLI
5pm Next we move to Serie A for a huge game as Atalanta hot Napoli. This is a top of the table clash as Napoli started the weekend sitting top with Atalanta in second. You just know that the title race is going to be dramatic in Italy this season, but the last two weekends have been superb for Napoli. They grinded out a 1-0 win away to Roma in a very tight game and then hammered Sassuolo 4-0. But then AC Milan and Atalanta both dropped points with losses, so that leaves Atalanta sitting five points clear of Atalanta and six clear of AC Milan. It’s still early days in the title race and you would expect more drama, but if Napoli could grind out another win here they could open a sizable gap. They lost midweek to Liverpool in the Champions League, but away from home they basically just had to not lose 4-0 to top the Group and they got the job done in that sense. Atalanta would have been gutted to lose their last home game 2-0 to Lazio, and that has put them on the backfoot now. An eight point gap would be huge if Napoli win here, so this is a massive game for Atalanta from that point of view. Napoli are well fancied here, coming into the game as clear favourites. They are trading 2.16 at the time of writing, and while they have been fantastic this season, that does feel a couple of ticks too short. Atalanta have only lose once at home this season.
The Atalanta home games this season have been quite tight – they beat Torino 3-1 but other than that they have generally kept games tight. In fairness to them in the loss to Lazio, it was a close game Lazio just took their chances. There was only 0.06 in the difference on xG. There’s no getting away from the fact that Napoli have been top class this season, but this will be a difficult fixture for them. They’ve managed away wins to Roma and AC Milan this season, but the Roma game was exceptionally close and they did concede an xG of over double what they created against AC Milan. From a value point of view, it’s hard to get away from the Napoli lay here at the odds. I just fully expect a closer game than odds of 2.16 suggest. I actually wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a score line of 0-0 here, and couldn’t put anyone off that at nice odds, but it’s the Napoli lay for me.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Napoli to beat Atalanta at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtaNap
BARCELONA V ALMERIA
8pm We move to La Liga to finish the day and we have the shortest price of the weekend here as Barcelona host Almeria. Barcelona have been creating some exceptional xG figures this season, and the market is fully expecting a comfortable home win here with Barcelona trading as short as 1.12 at the time of writing. Almeria came up from the Segunda, but they won’t be unhappy with their start to the season. They start the weekend sitting in 13th with 13 points from 12 games, and with their sole aim of staying in La Liga this season they are in a good position. Obviously they won’t be expected to get anything from this game, and anything here is a complete bonus. It’s still early days in the La Liga season, but you can see already that Almeria are a much more comfortable side in front of their own fans. They have had six away games this season, and they’ve only managed one draw from those. That came against Elche too, who are sitting rock bottom with only four points from their opening 12 games. Not only do Almeria have a poor record away from home, but they haven’t been conceding a lot of goals too. Not ideal when you’re facing a side like Barcelona!
Almeria are conceding an average xG of 1.9 per game this season, which is not the stat you want to see when away to Barcelona. The home side have been superb in front of goal this season – you could even say that they are getting back to their best. I know they crashed out of the Champions League at the Group stage again this season, but unlike last season they were unlucky this time. There really wasn’t much between them and Inter Milan, and they were unlucky to lose away to Bayern Munich too. In La Liga, they are creating an average xG of 2.8 per game which is incredibly impressive. The market is expecting goals, and I feel Barcelona can cover the handicap here. There’s plenty of handicap options, I ever debated the -3.5 goals option but I feel the best position is -2.5 goals at 1.8. Barcelona have been creating enough to bang in goals for fun here, and Almeria have been conceding so many chances I can’t see them putting in a performance good enough to stop Barcelona here. The -2.5 goals is a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Barcelona -2.5 goals to beat Almeria at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarAlm