SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews the top games of the day all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL MADRID V ESPANYOL
1pm We have a fantastic day around Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this Saturday! We have the current Champions from La Liga, the Bundesliga and Ligue 1 all in action, along with the Champions-in-waiting from Serie A! It was an excellent week in the Champions League, and we have more cracking fixtures next week too – March is definitely my favourite month for European football. We start the day in La Liga with Real Madrid hosting Espanyol. Real dropped more points last weekend with a 0-0 draw at Real Betis – they were the better side because they created an xG figure of double what they conceded but the reality is that leaves them nine points behind Barcelona now. El Clasico is coming up next weekend but you’d have to wonder is the title race over even if Real Madrid win that? Not only asking that question, but Barcelona have home advantage for that fixture too! We’ll actually see two El Clasico’s very quickly because at the start of April we have the second leg in the Copa del Rey too – once again Barcelona have home advantage, but Real Madrid do have a 1-0 lead from the first leg.
Despite the ever growing gap, Real have to keep trying. The least they can do is win here and then go into El Clasico nine points down – they also have their second leg in the Champions League to worry about next week. But they do have a 5-2 lead, and they have home advantage too. Despite having a three goal lead, it will still be an entertaining game against Liverpool – I can’t see Klopp setting up his side to sit back! Real are trading heavy odds on favourites to win here, currently 1.29 at the time of writing. Espanyol are currently sitting in mid-table, but such is the relegation battle in La Liga this season they are only two points away from the bottom three despite starting the weekend in 13th! Espanyol haven’t been too bad this season – they are basically creating and conceding the same xG figure. I don’t expect them to go down, but this should be a routine win for Real. I’d expect Espanyol to sit back, and with Real having the Champions League midweek I feel this will be a quieter than usual game. Real will grind out the win, and I’m happy with Under 2.5 goals at 2.42.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.42 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ReaEsp
BAYERN MUNICH V AUGSBURG
2.30pm We move over to the Bundesliga next for is what is surely the shortest price of the weekend! Bayern Munich host Augsburg with the German Champions trading as short as 1.15 at the time of writing! Fair to say the market is expecting a comfortable home win. It was an excellent week for Bayern Munich, they beat PSG again in the Champions League to get through to the Quarter-Finals. After a tense first half, Bayern took over in the second half and it was game over then given they already had a one goal lead heading into that game. Augsburg are sitting down towards the bottom of the Bundesliga table, but I don’t see them as being involved in the relegation battle. They have an eight point cushion to the bottom three – at the moment it looks like there’s a bottom five in the Bundesliga and I don’t see that changing. Augsburg have turned into a bogey team for Bayern Munich in recent seasons, and I wouldn’t be absolutely rushing to include Bayern at 1.15 in an Acca this weekend. Augsburg have won two of their last three meetings in the Bundesliga, and Bayern could only win 1-0 in this fixture last season which is interesting from the Handicap market point of view.
On paper, there’s a huge gulf in class between the sides. Usually Bayern would hammer sides like Augsburg sitting down the table, but if you were backing Bayern to cover a 1.5 goal handicap you would have only collected twice over the last nine Bundesliga meetings between the sides. Given Bayern are trading at 1.4 to cover the 1.5 goal Handicap here, that definitely feels a little short. It’s hard to see past the Bayern win to be honest, but I do feel Augsburg can keep the score line respectable. Augsburg haven’t been too bad away from home this season either, they have a respectable ten points from their 11 games. Obviously they have issues at the back, so I’m happy to keep stakes small here, but the 1.98 looks a nice bet on Augsburg +2.5 goals.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Augsburg +2.5 goals to beat Bayern Munich at 1.98 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayAgs
NAPOLI V ATALANTA
5pm We move over to Serie A next as Napoli host Atalanta. Napoli are running away with the title this season in Italy, even a 1-0 loss last weekend against Lazio still left them 15 points clear at the top of the table. The title race is effectively over, and now they have the luxury of being able to focus on the Champions League. They have their second leg against Eintracht Frankfurt midweek in the Last 16. They are in a really good position there though after winning the first leg 2-0 away from home. It will just be a case of trying to get through the second leg with as little drama as possible. Just looking at the table, this is probably a bigger game for Atalanta compared to Napoli. Atalanta have been dropping down the table in recent weeks, and at the moment they are just sitting in the final European spot. They have Juventus coming up behind them after getting their 15 point deduction, and I’m sure Atalanta fans would have been happy with Roma beating Juventus last weekend! Despite getting European football, Atalanta fans might be a little disappointed given they started the season so well to be five points outside the top four now. And they are heading in the wrong direction too!
With Atalanta heading backwards, Napoli come into the game as the odds on favourites. It’s hard to argue with the market too – although they lost 1-0 in a tight game here against Lazio last Friday night, they finished the game with the higher xG figure. It was still a reasonably disappointing performance considering they have an average xG of 2.0 this season, and they have been top class at home. Lazio just scored from the very few chances they had – Napoli’s average xG conceded this season is as low as 0.8! Atalanta’s stats aren’t bad over all this season, and they have been a little unlucky in recent weeks. The reality here though is that they just aren’t at the same level as Napoli. I would expect them to approach this game in a cagey fashion, and those tactics worked for Lazio here last weekend. I feel the 1.71 on Napoli is a fair reflection of their chances of winning, and I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market. I expect Atalanta to sit back here, and the fact that Napoli have a midweek Champions League game too might see them make some changes in the last third of the game. I like Under 2.5 goals at 2.14 as I see this game going very similar to the Lazio game here last Friday night.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.14 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NapAta
BREST V PSG
8pm We go over to France to finish a brilliant Saturday with Ligue 1 action as Brest host PSG. We’ve been saying this for a while now that PSG will be judged by their performances in the Champions League rather than Ligue 1, and exiting at the Last 16 stage is a massive disappointment for them. I know they had an exceptionally tough draw against Bayern Munich, but that was their own fault for finishing second in their Group. The game in France was pretty close, and a draw was probably a affair result there but Bayern Munich were the better side during the week and deserved to go through. PSG fans won’t be happy, and there will be a little unrest in the next few weeks – PSG are out of the French Cup too. There’s always rumours of trouble in the dressing room with PSG, and I would expect more stories along those lines as well. Despite all the fallout from the Champions League, they have a pretty easy fixture to get back to winning ways here. Brest are only one point outside of the relegation zone, and that’s after a win last weekend too – they are in the relegation battle this season and will be for most of the season.
There’s a big gulf in class between the sides here, and PSG will be a popular selection for any Acca this weekend at 1.42. As I said midweek, the front three take all the headlines but the real issue at PSG is that there isn’t much quality in behind. They always find it hard to create and then defend against the quality sides. They won’t face those issues here though – Brest are only creating an average xG of 1.1 this season and they are conceding an average of 1.6. I feel it’s a case of how many goals can PSG score here rather than will they win, and while PSG are a tempting bet to cover the Handicap, I like Both Teams Not To Score at 2.04. PSG will have a lot of the ball here, and I can’t see Brest creating many chances. They have been poor in front of goal all season, and their last four xG figures have been 0.68, 0.21, 0.89 and 0.71. PSG can keep a clean sheet here on their way to a win.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 2.04 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BrePsg