SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews ALMERIA v CADIZ, DORTMUND v KOLN and ATLETICO MADRID v VALENCIA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ALMERIA V CADIZ
1pm We have a cracking weekend around Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! It’s headlined by El Clasico on Sunday night, we have we have some top class action from La Liga and the Bundesliga first on Saturday. We start the day earlier than usual in La Liga with a massive relegation battle. This is a huge game for both clubs in a very close relegation battle in Spain this season that involves a lot of clubs. At the start of this matchday there was only five points between Girona up in 12th and Almeria in 19th. With so many sides involved, it’s obviously very open and it only takes a win or two to shoot up the table. Cadiz were in the relegation zone and looking likely to go down, but two wins and two draws from their last five games has put them right back into the mix. Their loss came against Barcelona away from home too which can easily be forgiven! Almeria have lost five of their last of their last games, but amazingly their sole win came against Barcelona! That win came here, and to be honest they have been two Almeria teams this season! The one at home who have been quite decent, and the one away who have been shocking. They’ve only managed three points away from home all season, which is the reason why they sit in the bottom three. They are in the top four on the home form table!
You have to say, that’s a remarkable stat to see about Almeria. They have been so good at home, it’s hard to see a Cadiz win here. Although we have a relegation battle, it’s easy to understand why Almeria are trading 2.09 and clear favourites. Cadiz haven’t been as bad as Almeria away from home, but they have still only managed nine points away this season. Both sides have had a lot of issues at the back this season, indeed both have an average xG conceded figure of 2.0 or more. To be honest, there really isn’t much between the sides here bar Almeria being a much better side at home. To have a chance at staying up is a good achievement when you’ve only managed three points away from home all season! I’m happy to keep stakes reasonably small here because obviously we have two limited sides, but I like the 2.09 on Almeria with their home record being the difference here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Almeria to beat Cadiz at 2.09 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AlmCad
DORTMUND V KOLN
5.30pm Next we move over to the Bundesliga as Dortmund host Koln. The title race in Germany this season has been more interesting than usual, but as expected Bayern Munich are starting to pull away again. We had Bayern Munich, Dortmund and Union Berlin all sitting with the same amount of points, but in recent weeks Bayern have beaten Union Berlin, and then Dortmund dropped points last weekend against Schalke. Dortmund will be absolutely kicking themselves dropping points against a side sitting in the relegation zone and that capped a terrible week for Dortmund who also crashed out of the Champions League with a 2-0 loss away to Chelsea. We all felt Bayern will still win the title, but it would have been nice to have a very close title race, and if Dortmund wanted a close title race they basically couldn’t afford to drop points against sides towards the bottom of the table. They’ll just have to dust themselves off here and go again, and hope that Bayern drop points somewhere. They will be happy to be back at home, because those two games came away from home. I know they will be disappointed with the Schalke result, but they just didn’t create enough to win the game and to be fair Chelsea outplayed them in both legs, it’s just Dortmund manage to grind out a 1-0 win with home advantage.
Koln arrive into this game in poor form – they’ve only managed one win from their last eight Bundesliga games. They have picked up four draws in that run too, so I wouldn’t go lumping on Dortmund at 1.47 just because of the current run with limited wins! Koln are definitely struggling at the moment, especially away from home. Their last three away games have finished with an xG of 0.77, 0.53 and 0.35. While the 1.47 doesn’t jump off the page on Dortmund – it’s hard to make the case that they should be massively shorter – it is hard to see past them here. Koln have clearly been struggling to create chances away from home lately, but they are pretty solid at the back too. Under 2.5 goals is an appealing bet at 2.42, but I feel Dortmund can keep a clean sheet here. Both Teams Not To Score is trading 2.14 and that looks a nice bet given Koln’s recent run.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 2.14 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorKol
ATLETICO MADRID V VALENCIA
8pm We move back to La Liga to finish the day as Atletico Madrid host Valencia. You’d have to say that it’s been a disappointing season for Atletico Madrid. They have been miles off the pace in the title race, crashed out of the Champions League at the Group stage and didn’t even make it into the Europa League as they finished bottom of their Group. That left them with only La Liga to focus on being out of the Cope del Rey too, and after looking like they would be in a battle for a top four finish they have finally put a few wins together moving into third. It has helped that Real Sociedad and Real Betis have been dropping points recently too, and they look very likely to finish third again. Valencia have also had some much needed wins – they have been sitting in the relegation zone, but two wins from their last three games has moved them into 17th just outside the bottom three. They start the weekend with the same amount of points as Getafe who sit just behind them so they aren’t even close to safe yet. Almeria meet Cadiz earlier in the day too, so it’s another big day in the relegation battle.
Valencia have that classic look of a side who are “too good to go down” but they have been struggling all season – as their place in the table shows! A lot of their issues have come away from home – they’ve only managed six points away from home all season, and their two recent wins came with home advantage. In between those games was a loss away to Barcelona, but I wouldn’t read too much into that. I would be more worried about the losses away to Getafe and Girona recently – two sides who have been in the relegation mix and they conceded xG figures of 2.53 and 2.65. I was actually surprised to see Atletico Madrid trading as big as 1.56 when I clicked into the market – there’s no getting away from the fact that Valencia have been conceding a lot of chances away from home this season, and this seems the perfect time to support Atletico Madrid in the market. I feel this will be a one way traffic win for the home side, and I’m happy with a Max Bet at 1.56. Atletico have finished with xG figures of 2.21 and 2.93 in their last two games, along with seven goals, and the 1.56 is simply too big here.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Atletico Madrid to beat Valencia at 1.56 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlVal