SATURDAY IN EUROPE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Saturday’s top European games with a recommended BETDAQ bet. Starting in the Bundesliga with BAYERN MUNICH v BAYER LEVERKUSEN at 2.30pm.
BAYERN MUNICH V BAYER LEVERKUSEN
2.30pm We have another top class day in Europe on Saturday with all football bets 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We have had a brilliant run in Europe recently with massive domestic games at the top and bottom of tables and some incredible fixtures in the Champions League and Europa League. We have another exciting week next week as the second legs of the Last 16 start, but we kick off a cracking weekend with Bayern Munich hosting Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Dortmund dropped further points last weekend so Bayern start this weekend eight points clear at the top of the table. Not that it was in much doubt, but Bayern are heading for yet another Bundesliga title. They could have the title race put to bed by the time they get to the latter stages of the Champions League which would be a nice advantage to have – however they have work to do in their tie as they only drew 1-1 with Red Bull Salzburg in the first leg. This should be a good game with Bayer Leverkusen having an excellent season.
Bayer Leverkusen sit in a nice position in third, but they have RB Leipzig, Freiburg and Hoffenheim all four points behind them. A loss here would obviously put them under pressure over the next few weeks, but they should be able to get Champions League football. Bayern “grinded” out a 1-0 win last weekend against Eintracht Frankfurt but their performance was much better than the result. They created an xG of 2.94 and could have easily scored more! Bayern have been creating a lot of chances recently but they have had setbacks with the draw to Salzburg and the loss to Bochum. Given Leverkusen have been scoring goals for fun lately, we could see a surprise result here. Bayern look a little short at 1.43 because Leverkusen have scored 20 goals in their last five games, but it’s hard to see past the goals market here. Over 3.5 goals is odds on but Both Teams To Score is 1.5 which looks incredible value compared to the price of over 2.5 and over 3.5 goals. Leverkusen have been superb going forward this season and Bayern have been happy to play an open game and concede the odd goal. BTTS is worth a Max Bet at the odds for me.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Both Teams To Score at 1.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBayByr
ROMA V ATALANTA
5pm We move to Serie A next as Roma host Atalanta. When you look at the table you can see this is a massive game for both sides. Atalanta recorded a much needed win over Sampdoria on Monday night and they really needed that win to steady the ship in Serie A. They recorded nice wins in the Europa League, but they lost momentum in Serie A and gave fourth spot to Juventus in recent weeks. They are starting the weekend three points behind Juventus but they have a game in hand and they have a better goal difference to Juventus too. Obviously there is a long way to go in the season and points will be dropped at some stage, but if Atalanta could win that game in hand they would be in a reasonably strong position and the pressure would turn to Juventus. Of course, Jose Mourinho and Roma will have something to say about that and you know there is never a dull moment with Jose Mourinho! He seems to have found his mojo again at Roma and they are right in the mix for a European spot. They have played one more game than Atalanta but they are three points behind them – they won’t have given up on that fourth spot, although it’s very unlikely. Their plan will be the win here and see what happens with Juventus and Atalanta over the next few weeks.
This should be a cracking game to be fair. It’s easy to see why we have an open market, and I would expect a reasonably cagey affair too. Neither side can afford to lose when you look at the table, but at the same time they have to attack because a win would be massive. Roma needed that win over Spezia last weekend after three poor draws. They “only” won 1-0 but they finished the game with an xG of 4.67 which is clearly a very impressive performance. Their performance prior to that against Verona was very poor as they finished the game with an xG of 0.38 and they have been a bit up-and-down this season. I think Jose has built a good team spirit though, and Roma really suits him in the sense that he doesn’t have the pressure of being a title challenger. Although Atalanta put four goals past Sampdoria, they have been struggling lately and I feel the percentage call is the Atalanta lay at 2.82. To have to Roma win and draw on our side is a big plus – Roma have been grinding out a lot of results lately and they have been tough to beat. A tense game ahead!
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Atalanta to beat Roma at 2.82 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQRomAta
REAL MADRID V REAL SOCIEDAD
8pm We have a great day around Europe today and we move to La Liga next as Real Madrid host Real Sociedad. It was nice to land a Max Bet last weekend on Real Madrid and although they won’t be a Max Bet today, they are very much worth backing at 1.64. Although Real Sociedad have been a very solid side this season, they haven’t got close to the level required to mix it with Real Madrid. When the sides met earlier in the season, Real Madrid ran out very comfortable 2-0 winners away from home. Now with home advantage, this should be a one way traffic win. The only reason they aren’t a Max Bet this week compared to last week is they aren’t as far away from their true price this week compared to last week. Although Sociedad have bounced back to winning ways after getting dumped out of the Europa League by RB Leipzig, they played Osasuna and Mallorca – two sides they would have been expected to beat to be honest. As I said, Sociedad are a very solid side but they always come up short against the top sides in my opinion.
They have conceded plenty of goals away from home this season when they have ran into the sides above them. They conceded four to Barcelona, two to Atletico Madrid and four to Real Betis. They also conceded four away to Athletic Bilbao recently too, and I couldn’t put anyone off Real Madrid on the handicap here. Any Other Home Win is also very tempting at 8.0 or bigger which I feel is a cracking value bet! The only negative to that is that Real Madrid haven’t exactly been blowing sides away this season. They have been grinding out results more so than scoring four/five/six goals. That being said, their xG figures have been pretty impressive lately – you can see figures like 3.29, 2.30, 5.24 and 4.05 from their recent games. Sociedad have conceded an xG of 3.02 against RB Leipzig and 3.16 in their 4-0 loss to Athletic Bilbao so the chance is there for a big Real win however I’m going to stick to Real in the match odds market at 1.64.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Real Madrid to beat Real Sociedad at 1.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQRmaSoc
NICE V PSG
8pm We finish the game in Ligue 1 as Nice host PSG in what should be a cracker! PSG are running away with the title in Ligue 1 this season – they are going to start the weekend 15 points ahead of Marseille in second and then Nice are a further point behind. Although PSG managed to somehow not win the title last season given their wealth of talent, winning the title this season was never really a question. With the Champions League Last 16 tie coming up next week against Real Madrid, it does make these fixtures more interesting. Although Nice sit in the top three and they can challenge PSG, there’s no question that PSG will have one eye on the Real Madrid game. Indeed, they have probably been preparing for that game all week rather than this one. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some stars rested for this game even though it’s a “top of the table” clash! We must consider the fact that Nice have been flattered by their position this season though – the xG table in France puts them down to 7th so they have been lucky with some results. PSG have basically been running over sides in France this season – even in their recent surprise loss to Nantes they created an xG of 3.44 in the 3-1 loss and were unlucky to lose.
Nice were very poor last weekend away to Strasbourg. They managed a 0-0 draw but they finished the game with an xG of 0.16 so they obviously had very little of the ball. They will be glad to have this fixture at home, because they were even worse away to Lyon – they only finished that game with an xG of 0.05! Those are not figures you’d usually see from a side sitting in third, but then again the standard in Ligue 1 isn’t the same as the big leagues around Europe. With the big Real Madrid game next week, I can see why punters want to take on PSG here – expected changes and not focused fully on this fixture; however the 1.89 on PSG is too big to turn down in my opinion. Nice are a very average side, and PSG won’t have to be at their best to win here. I’m happy to limit stakes because of the situation, but the 1.89 is still worth a reasonably confident bet given the value on offer.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win PSG to beat Nice at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNicPsg