SATURDAY IN EUROPE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Saturday’s top games in the Bundesliga and La Liga all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FREIBURG V BAYERN MUNICH
2.30pm After what felt like a very long International break, it’s fantastic to have a weekend packed with action again all around Europe! We have some brilliant fixtures today from the Bundesliga and La Liga, with 50% Off Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange meaning you only pay 1%. We start the day in the Bundesliga with the German Champions in action as they travel to take on Freiburg. Bayern Munich have dropped a few points recently with two draws from their last three Bundesliga games, but they still have a nice six point advantage over Dortmund sitting in second. It would have been nice to have a reasonably close title race, but I feel that might be asking for too much in Germany these days! Freiburg are having a fantastic season, but they have dropped out of the top four with two draws from their last three Bundesliga games – despite that they still have a good chance as they start the weekend on the same amount of points as RB Leipzig. To be honest it’s hard to see them finishing the season stronger than RB Leipzig, but they are there and in with a fighting chance.
When you look through the Bayern xG figures this season you can’t help but be impressed. They have been incredible – even in the recent 1-1 draw away to Hoffenheim they finished the game with an xG of 3.96. Either side of that draw, they scored seven goals against Salzburg and four against Union Berlin. Obviously Freiburg are having a cracking season given their place in the table but that doesn’t change the fact that there’s still a big gulf in class between the sides. I think it would be a shock to see anything bar a Bayern Munich win here, and although it is tempting to look towards the goal markets or handicap markets for value I think the best play here is to keep things simple and back Bayern. I was surprised to see them trading as big as 1.53 when I clicked into the market – Freiburg have been giving away a higher xG figure than goal conceded this season, and you just can’t do that against a side on Bayern as they will take the chances given to them. A confident bet to start the weekend.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Bayern Munich to beat Freiburg at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQFreBay
DORTMUND V RB LEIPZIG
5.30pm We stay in the Bundesliga next as Dortmund host RB Leipzig. Although we have Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid all in action today, this fixture is surely the highlight of the day. Although Dortmund start the day six points behind Bayern Munich, they will still believe that they are in the title race with a good chance. I think the rest of us know it’s pretty much impossible to close that gap with Bayern, but from a Dortmund point of view you just have to keep winning and see what happens. This game is probably a much more important game for RB Leipzig who are just sitting in fourth position but have the same amount of points at Freiburg in fifth and are just one point ahead of Hoffenheim in sixth. With Freiburg having to play Bayern Munich today, a win here could make it an excellent weekend for RB Leipzig. On the flip side, a loss here and good results elsewhere could see them under a lot of pressure again. I know RB Leipzig cashed in on some of their best players during the summer, but you’d still like to see them in Champions League next season. It’s no surprise at all that we have an open market, and this should be a close game.
Both sides dropped points prior to the International break as Dortmund drew 1-1 with Koln and RB Leipzig drew 0-0 with Eintracht Frankfurt. RB Leipzig will say that they were unlucky not to win, but although they only conceded an xG of 0.23 they still only created 1.24 – it’s not like they were banging the door down. The Dortmund and Koln game was very even though, and when you look at the figures you can see that Dortmund haven’t been playing their best football of the season recently. In that sense, the International break probably came at a good time for them and it will be interesting to see how they perform today. Although we have an open market, I would actually have the market more open with the sides closer together. For me the value is with the Dortmund lay at 2.56 as RB Leipzig have been playing some very good football lately. It’s hard to see anything other than a very close game too, and it’s nice to have the draw on our side.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Dortmund to beat RB Leipzig at 2.56 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQDorLei
CELTA VIGO V REAL MADRID
5.30pm Next we move to La Liga Celta Vigo host Real Madrid. I’m sure there will be some big opinions on the Real Madrid price here at close to evens. They should really be beating this Celta Vigo side who come into the game with only one win in their last six, and I wouldn’t be comfortable laying Real Madrid at 1.97. For me it’s a question of whether to back them or look to another market for a better bet. The International break came at a good time for Real Madrid as they were hammered 4-0 by Barcelona in El Clasico, and they didn’t have to deal with the press conferences the following week! They were totally outplayed in that game, and to be honest the result could have been even worse. I said prior to that game that although it was basically “meaningless” in the sense that Real Madrid already have the title won, it was very important looking towards next season and Barcelona definitely laid down a marker that they will be back challenging for the title next season. Xavi has done a wonderful job.
There was some good news for Real Madrid that weekend though as Sevilla dropped points too (again!) meaning that they start this weekend with a nine point lead at the top of La Liga. That’s a very nice position to be in, and they won’t have any domestic pressure going into the latter stages of the Champions League which is a nice bonus. They are in action midweek against Chelsea so I’d keep an eye on the team news here. They are away from home on Wednesday, and will more than likely go into that game looking for a 0-0 just like they did against PSG. I’m happy to keep stakes limited for this game as I know Real Madrid will have one eye on the Champions League midweek, but I can’t get away from them here at 1.97. I feel that price is simply too big to ignore. I said above you either back it or look elsewhere, and I can’t look elsewhere. Celta Vigo are your average mid-table La Liga side who tend to play a reasonably open game – they will give Real Madrid enough chances to win here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Real Madrid to beat Celta Vigo at 1.97 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQCelRma
ATLETICO MADRID V ALAVES
8pm We stay in La Liga to finish Super Saturday as Atletico Madrid host Alaves. It was a good weekend for Atletico Madrid prior to the International break as they went four points clear for Real Betis and now look to have that fourth spot on lock. They still have work to do of course, but they are finally putting some wins together and with Real Betis going into the wrong direction it seems we’ll have the same top four in La Liga again this season, just in a different order! In fairness to Atletico Madrid they would have been incredible unlucky to miss out on Champions League football because the xG table put them in first or second for a large part of the season. Barcelona fans will be exciting to know that the xG table now puts them in first which shows the improvement they have made under Xavi. Atletico Madrid should be adding another win to their collection here as Alaves have been very poot this season but they are still fighting for their lives to stay up. They start the weekend four points behind Mallorca in 18th and five away from safety – with each passing week it looks like things are getting more desperate.
Atletico Madrid will be expected to win here, and the market agrees with the home side trading as short as 1.39 at the time of writing. I actually felt we’d see Atletico shorter before clicking into the market – I was expecting a price in the low 1.3’s. Alaves have been giving away so many chances recently it’s hard to see anything bar a comfortable Atletico win here. Alaves have conceded xG figures like 2.11, 2.91, 1.53 and 3.29 within their last six games. They put in a good performance against Sevilla when they created an xG of 2.05 but that came at home. Away from home they have been one of the worst sides in La Liga with only six points from their 14 games. I’m very happy to take the 2.26 on Atletico Madrid to cover the 1.5 goal handicap here, that’s a very appealing price at odds against. Alaves should give them plenty of chances.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Atletico Madrid -1.5 goals to beat Alaves at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAtiAla