SATURDAY IN EUROPE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Saturday’s games between BARCELONA v REAL BETIS, DORTMUND v BAYERN MUNICH, NAPOLI v ATALANTA and REAL SOCIEDAD v REAL MADRID all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BARCELONA V REAL BETIS
3.15pm What a fantastic Saturday we have in Europe. This is a real blockbuster day with some top quality fixtures, and all football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We have a host of talking points heading into today, and you’d be hoping we get some answers too. We have a huge clash at the top of the Bundesliga later, but we start in La Liga with Barcelona hosting Real Betis. Barcelona are decent odds on favourites here, but they are going to start the game four points behind Real Betis as they sit in mid-table. The Barcelona performances haven’t been as bad as their placing in 7th this season, but their over all trend this season has just been worrying. They haven’t recovered from losing Messi, how could you in fairness, and the board have reacted by sacking the manager. Ironically, the performances that resulted in the sacking were some of the unluckiest of the season – they finished with an xG of 3.14 in a 1-0 loss to Rayo Vallecano. They put in a great performance last weekend away to Villarreal and that was probably their best away performance this season.
There’s no doubt that Xavi will have the backing of the squad and the fans, but this Barcelona project will take a lot of time to come right. We have seen just how far off the pace they have been at times this season, especially when they have come up against the top sides. Real Betis are by no means a top side compared to Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, but I feel the market is massively underrating them here. Barcelona are way too short for me at 1.53. Betis have been creating a lot of chances this season, and give how many issues Barcelona have had this season I expect a closer game than the odds suggest here. I know Barcelona have been much more comfortable at home this season, and for that reason I’m happy to limit stakes but I do feel the 1.53 is crazy short.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Barcelona to beat Real Betis at 1.53 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBarBts
DORTMUND V BAYERN MUNICH
5.30pm Next we move to the Bundesliga for our highlight fixture of the day! Dortmund host Bayern Munich in a massive top of the table clash with top spot up for grabs. Usually Bayern run away with the title, but Dortmund have managed to stay in touch so far and there’s only one point between them at the moment. Bayern have dropped plenty of silly points this season with two losses and a draw. That loss away to Augsburg came from nowhere and was a big shock, but you have to highlight the fact that even in the three games they haven’t won this season in the Bundesliga, Bayern finished with a higher xG in all of them. They were very unlucky to lose to Eintracht Frankfurt as the game finished 2.29 to 0.60 to Bayern. If you look at the xG figures, it’s clear that Dortmund just haven’t been as good as Bayern this season, but they are getting the job done. I highlighted last weekend in their game against Wolfsburg that they had to win those type of games if they are to really challenge for the title, and they recorded a very good 3-1 win.
This is a real fixture to get excited about, but for me there’s a clear winner. Bayern have been playing at a much higher level than Dortmund this season when you look at the xG figures and I’m happy to back the away win at 1.86. While Dortmund have been getting good results, they have been conceding quite a few chances this season. They have been given a footballing lesson at times in the Champions League this season and they go into the final round of games sitting in third and going to the Europa League. Their Group wasn’t that tough either, and perhaps it’s a sign that they have been playing far too open. You just can’t do that against Bayern, and although they might change their tactics a little here I just can’t see past the Bayern win. The 1.86 is big enough for me to have a Max Bet. It’s been nice to land a few Max Bets on Bayern this season, and hopefully that can continue.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Bayern Munich to beat Dortmund at 1.86 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQDorByn
NAPOLI V ATALANTA
7.45pm Next we go to Serie A for a massive top four clash between Napoli and Atalanta. Napoli are under immense pressure at the top of the table and although they lead by one point over AC Milan, they will be looking over their shoulders to Inter Milan who are just two points behind. Inter Milan have a big game away to Jose Mourinho’s Roma earlier in the day, and a win there could see Inter topping the table before this game kicks off. Napoli had a decent lead but they have dropped a few points recently and now the title race is really getting interesting. Atalanta come into the game off the back of four Serie A wins and they recorded a massive 1-0 win away to Juventus recently. I remember previewing that game and highlighting just how important that game was for Atalanta when you look at the table and to their credit they grinded out a 1-0 win. That has opened up quite a gap already between the top four and the rest, with Juventus likely to miss out on Champions League football.
It’s no surprise that we have an open market here and we should have a very close game. Although I am expecting a close game, I feel the odds are wrong here. Napoli look too short in my view at 2.56 – Atalanta are trading 2.96, and I would have the sides much closer together for an even more open market. It just feels like this fixture falls at a good time for Atalanta – they have put together some nice wins and they have been scoring goals too. They have created xG figures of 2.61, 2.54 and 2.78 within their last six games and they would have got a lot of confidence from that win over Juventus, even with the issues Juventus are having this season. Napoli have only won once in their last five in all competitions and they are just struggling a little at the moment. This seems a good time to get with Atalanta and I’m happy to lay Napoli at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Napoli to beat Atalanta at 2.56 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNapAta
REAL SOCIEDAD V REAL MADRID
8pm We move back to La Liga to finish the day as Real Madrid travel to take on Real Sociedad is another massive top four clash. This is our third top four clash of the day, what a treat! Real took full advantage of their game in hand over Real Sociedad midweek to go seven points clear at the top of the table. Atletico Madrid and Sevilla have a game in hand on Real now so it wasn’t a “hand in hand” over everyone, it’s just the way the fixtures have worked out. Real Sociedad started the season last season in superb form and fell away badly – at the moment it looks like the same thing is happening. After a loss last weekend they find themselves slipping down the table – they managed to hold onto third because Sevilla lost too, but you can’t imagine that place staying for long. Real Madrid come into this game on a winning run and full of confidence, and they look overpriced here at around 2.3. You can see Real Sociedad are struggling at the moment.
Sociedad have only managed one win in their last six games in all competitions, and I’d be very worried looking at their xG figures. They just haven’t been creating chances. In their last eight La Liga fixtures their highest xG has been 1.45 and we have had a lot of figures under 1. They only managed 0.39 in their last home game to Valencia, and if they play like that here Real Madrid will easily win. Real haven’t been at their best this season, but because Barcelona and Atletico have also dropped their level, they are clear at the top of the table. They conceding a high xG figure midweek against Athletic Bilbao and they have been conceding a few chances lately. For that reason, I’m going to skip having a Max Bet on Real Madrid because there are worries, but given the level of Real Sociedad coming into this game the 2.3 is too big to ignore, it’s just a case of managing stakes.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Real Madrid to beat Real Sociedad at 2.3 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQSocRma