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BUNDESLIGA SUNDAY: Our new European football tipster The Ultra previews WERDER BREMEN v WOLFSBURG, UNION BERLIN v SCHALKE and AUGSBURG v FC KOLN all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.

The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.

The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.


12.30pm An excellent Sunday ahead in the Bundesliga. I’m very surprised to see Wolfsburg as big as they are to beat Werder Bremen. They are trading 2.1 on BETDAQ Exchange and that looks absolutely massive. Werder Bremen were beaten 3-0 here on Wednesday night by Eintracht Frankfurt and they have been poor at home all season. They’ve only won once from 14 games and conceded 33 goals (although that is over the xG in fairness). Wolfsburg have been rock solid away from home, performing in line with their xG and if both teams perform to their xG here, Wolfsburg win.

I’m very surprised to see odds of 2.1 and this has to be a max bet. Werder Bremen might be fighting for their survival as they sit down in 17th but Wolfsburg are fighting towards the top of the table. They are adrift from the top five but their xG puts them in 6th and they perform consistently. They’ve won their two away games since returning from lockdown and they’ve been scoring close to 2 goals away from home on average while Werder Bremen have an xG of 1.24 at home, but their actual scoring is only 0.64. A Wolfsburg win is a banker for me at the odds, very happy to have a max bet on this one.

The Ultra Says:
Five points win Wolfsburg to beat Werder Bremen at 2.1 with BETDAQ Exchange.

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2.30pm Two struggling sides here. Schalke have lost their four games since returning from lockdown while Union have lost three of four with the other being a draw. While many might see this as a game “between two out of form sides” the numbers say Union have a far better chance of winning here. Schalke have created very little in xG terms, and they are flattered by their Bundesliga position. It’s the opposite for Union, they are currently in 14th at the start of the weekend fixtures but xG puts them up into 9th.

Looking at the xG stats on goals is very interesting. Both sides have more or less performed in line with xG at home and away. Schalke have conceded more goals than they’ve scored and they’ve only scoring a little over 1 goal away from home. That won’t cut it in the Bundesliga. Union might have low confidence given the results, but Schalke look in very bad form based on xG and I like the home win here at 2.56 for a small bet.

The Ultra Says:
One point win Union Berlin to beat Schalke at 2.56 with BETDAQ Exchange.

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5pm This is an interesting game. Koln have been one of the unluckier sides in the Bundesliga this season with their xG not reflected in their results. This the return from lockdown they have been excellent in xG terms, but they have conceded too many goals. Their games have been excellent to watch, filled with goals and excitement but that hasn’t helped them get results. They haven’t won a game since returning, but all four games have since over 3.5 goals. Augsburg have seen chances and goals too, apart from their game against Paderborn.

I like over 2.5 goals here at 1.75 which looks too big. Augsburg are pretty reliable in xG terms, although they have scored more than their xG at home this season. Koln have conceded a massive 33 goals away from home and although the xG was only 22, they just keep conceding goals. They play too open. I can see both sides gelling well together here and creating a very good game. Over 2.5 goals is worth a solid bet at 1.75.

The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ Exchange.

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