SUNDAY BUNDESLIGA/LA LIGA/SERIE A: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Sunday’s top games in Europe – all including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
RB LEIPZIG V WOLFSBURG
2.30pm We have a special day around Europe on Sunday with plenty of top class teams in action! It’s going to be an eventful day on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and I’ve picked some bets from the Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A. We start the afternoon in the Bundesliga with RB Leipzig hosting Wolfsburg. These two sides have been a shadow of themselves last season, it’s actually hard to believe they were Champions League sides last season. Wolfsburg have had a dramatic fall from grace and they started the weekend sitting down in 14th just two laces away from the bottom three. They are only three points off the relegation playoff spot too, and you have to go back to the 6th of November for their last win in the Bundesliga. Surely the phrase “they are too good to go down” qualifies for Wolfsburg but they are in serious danger if they can’t turn their form around. RB Leipzig haven’t been as bad as Wolfsburg, but their fall has been dramatic too. They have gone from challenging (as close to challenging Bayern in Germany as one does!) for the title to battling for a top four spot. They have done well recently after a very slow start, and given the sides ahead of them you couldn’t say they won’t finish third or fourth.
I know Leipzig haven’t exactly been a reliable side this season, but Wolfsburg have been so poor that Leipzig are a confident bet here at 1.56. The only positive for Wolfsburg is they actually played well last weekend against Hertha Berlin, they drew 0-0 but they created a high xG and perhaps that’s a sign things are changing. The game prior to that though they lost 1-0 to Bochum and only created an xG of 0.41 and you have to look at the long-term performance to be honest. Wolfsburg are there for the taking and Leipzig are starting to create more chances too. They finished with an xG of 3.71 at home to Mainz and 4.14 at home to Gladbach too. As I said, most of their issues in the table come from a slow start and in general they have improved a lot since – I can only see one way traffic here and Leipzig are a confident bet to start the day. They would have been a Max Bet, but Wolfsburg did play well in their last game, four points feels right.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win RB Leipzig to beat Wolfsburg at 1.56 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQRblWol
REAL MADRID V ELCHE
3.15pm Next we move to La Liga as Real Madrid host Elche. Sevilla had a chance to close the gap to two points midweek as they played their game in hand, but they could only manage a draw against Valencia leaving the gap at four points at the start of this weekend. As I have said, I don’t think Real Madrid will be overly worried about Sevilla as their title challenger but if they could have at least got to within two points it would have put a little pressure on. As it stands, with Atletico Madrid and Barcelona so far off the pace the title will go back to Real Madrid, but they can’t afford too many slip ups like they had against Getafe at the start of the year. Elche arrive into this fixture full of confidence too – they have took seven points from their last three games and fired themselves up the table. That jump up by seven points is obviously massive, but I still would suggest they are slap bang in the relegation battle. They were still just five points off the bottom three at the start of the weekend, and while they had three good results their performance level didn’t really change.
The market is fully expecting an easy win here for Real as they are trading as short as 1.19 at the time of writing. It’s hard to argue with that price too – there is a huge gulf in class between the sides here and also although Elche have won their last two games, they conceded a higher xG than they created in both of those games. They could have just as easily lost those two games and sat in the bottom three – I know the standards are pretty low towards the bottom of the table, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Elche drop back into the bottom three at some stage. I expect this to be a one way traffic win for Real – they banged in four goals at home to Valencia in their last game and they can do the same here. Any Other Home Win is trading 3.3 in the Correct Score market and that looks very nice value.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 3.3 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQRmaElc
HERTHA BERLIN V BAYERN MUNICH
4.30pm Next we move back to the Bundesliga as the German Champions are back in action. Hertha Berlin host Bayern Munich, and we have another very short favourite here with Bayern trading as short as 1.26 at the time of writing. You can’t blame the market expecting an easy win here – Hertha Berlin have been poor this season, and this is a case of how many goals can Bayern score rather than will they win. Hertha Berlin started the weekend in 13th position in the Bundesliga, but they are just four points off the relegation playoff spot. They were in the relegation places for ages last season, but they did have games in hand and when they actually played them they shot up the table. You’d have to worry about them here though looking at how many chances they have been conceding lately. They conceded xG’s of 2.11 v Wolfsburg, 1.81 v Koln, 1.81 v Dortmund and 2.77 v Mainz recently. When you look at those figures and what Bayern have been doing this season, there’s only one outcome here.
That being said, Bayern did record a shock loss recently against Gladbach who have been average this season. They are a better side than Hertha Berlin though, and Bayern did bounce back with a smooth 4-0 win over Koln last weekend. I feel Bayern will win easily here, it’s just how you want to play it. I’d highly recommend Bayern for any BETDAQ Multiple this weekend at 1.26, but for my best bet it’s a choice between the handicap prices and Any Other Away Win Correct Score. The 1.66 on Bayern -1.5 goal makes the most appeal in my opinion – Hertha have consistently conceded an xG that suggests Bayern will score more than two here, but the 1.5 goal handicap also allows for Bayern to concede too in my opinion as I feel they can score three or more here. The 1.66 stands out for me.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Bayern Munich -1.5 goals to beat Hertha Berlin at 1.66 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQHrtBay
AC MILAN V JUVENTUS
7.45pm Next we move to Serie A for the highlight of the day in Europe as AC Milan host Juventus. We’ve had a lot of massive games in Serie A lately, and this is another one to add to that list. Juventus have been involved in some of those games, and they recorded a massive comeback when 3-1 down against Roma recently to win 4-3. That was a huge win when you look at the table – they started the season very slowly and although they are still sitting outside the top four, they started the weekend just one point behind Atalanta. The worry from a Juventus point of view is Atalanta have a game in hand, and they are five points behind Napoli in third. Losing the Champions League would be a huge blow to Juventus to be honest, and it would take them years to recover. They are already on the slide, they’ve lost Ronaldo and if they lose Champions League football too it will be a long way back. AC Milan know all about that road, and they have built themselves into a top four side again. They just aren’t up to the same standard as Inter Milan though, and you couldn’t really call them a title challenger.
AC Milan suffered a huge setback on Monday when they lost 2-1 to Spezia. They finished the game with a higher xG and they were unlucky to lose, but they simply can’t be losing to sides like Spezia if you want to challenge for the title. That loss left them two points behind Inter Milan and Inter have a game in hand too. That’s probably the title race close to done if Inter win their game in hand considering how strongly they finished the season last year. I have to say, AC Milan’s performance level hasn’t been fantastic over the last while. They were soundly beaten by Liverpool in the Champions League too when Liverpool had nothing to play for and they have dropped their fair share of points too – they were poor away to Udinese and lost to Napoli here too. Although Juventus started slowly, they have been building up to a good performance against a top side and I feel they can deliver that here. It seems an ideal time for this fixture for Juventus and the 2.9 is worth taking. I can’t have AC Milan as the favourites here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Juventus to beat AC Milan at 2.9 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMilJuv
ALAVES V BARCELONA
8pm We move back to La Liga to finish a brilliant day as Alaves host Barcelona. In years gone by this would be a routine Barcelona win and they would be trading much shorter than their current 1.59. Times have changed though, and it’s very hard to be confident on Barcelona away from home these days. When I look at Barcelona these days they remind me so much of Manchester United after Sir Alex Ferguson left and David Moyes took over. They have completely lost their fear factor now Messi has gone, and every side now thinks they have a chance. It’s that belief that changes the game to be honest, and you can see why Barcelona are conceding so many goals this season. Not only had their level dropped, but sides are coming into games to attack them and not just sit back and pray for a draw. The whole mindset has changed. Barcelona recorded another disappointing result away from home with a 1-1 draw against Granada, and they didn’t create that much either. They played well away to Sevilla and deserved to win, but they have also dropped points away from home recently to the likes of Osasuna. The away table actually puts them in midtable, which is worse than their already disappointing position!
The big question here from a betting point of view is are Alaves good enough to take advantage of an average Barcelona side. Alaves are sitting in the bottom three and the xG table doesn’t move them much, just one spot higher so their place in the table reflects their level of form. It’s been a while since they won a game, and they shipped four goals to Real Betis midweek away from home. At home they have picked up three draws in their last three games, and they have won two games from their last six too so that’s just one loss in their last six home games. They also picked up a draw away to Barcelona, but they were lucky in that game as they conceded an xG of 1.79. Barcelona just aren’t reliable away from home at the moment and while I fully accept Alaves are a very limited side, they do have a decent record here and I feel the best value call is a small lay on Barcelona at 1.59. I expect a closer game than the odds reflect.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Barcelona to beat Alaves at 1.59 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAlvBar