Reading Time: 4 mins

EURO 2020 FINAL: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews Sunday’s Wembley final between ITALY v ENGLAND with a recommended BETDAQ 0% COMMISSION bet.


8pm Is football finally coming home? After a superb month at Euro 2020, Italy and England clash in the final at Wembley. We should have a fantastic game as these two sides have been excellent right throughout the tournament, and we also get 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on our bets! Having the final at Wembley is an obvious advantage for England. They are favourites however we do have quite an open market. At the time of writing, Italy trade 3.05 with England 2.8 and the draw is 3.1.

The market is expecting a very close game, and to be honest it’s hard to see anything else. At this level in International football we usually do have quite cagey games – you only have to look at both Semi-Finals to see that. You wouldn’t rule out Extra Time or perhaps even drama filled penalties. I’m not sure the Wembley crowd could handle penalties.. the pressure and drama would be immense! It would make for great viewing however.

Both sides have impressed and also grinded out results at times throughout the tournament. What’s very eye-catching is England have only conceded once up until now, but there’s no getting away from the fact that they have had an easy draw. Their Group was pretty easy, although so was Italy’s, however since then the two sides have had very different journeys. Italy have had to beat Austria, Belgium and Spain, while England had to beat Germany, Ukraine and Denmark. England’s big game was Germany, although on paper we expected Denmark to be a big test but England finished the game (after Extra Time) with an xG of 3.27 to 0.30. That’s very impressive, and another game they have controlled.

If you could describe England’s performances so far at Euro 2020, you would say they have controlled the games. So far they have conceded xG figures of 0.54 v Croatia, 0.73 v Scotland, 0.46 v Czech Republic, 1.33 v Germany, 0.26 v Ukraine and then 0.30 against Denmark. After all the question marks about the England defence coming into the tournament, they are performing at the highest level. The big question now is, can they handle Italy?

Italy have created xG figures of 2.03 v Turkey, 2.50 v Switzerland, 2.26 v Wales, 2.24 v Austria, 2.23 v Belgium and then 0.78 v Spain. Very consistent figures up until the Spain game, where they time wasted and employed all the usual Italian tactics to get a result. Credit to them though, they kept their cool in the penalty shootout. It’s understandable that Italy weren’t that impressive against Spain though as Spain actually played some of the best football at the tournament looking at the xG figures. They should have scored more, but that’s football – you have to take your chances.

Given both sides have some exceptional attacking talent, this game could really light up Wembley if we have an early spark. The thing is though, it’s hard not to see a cagey start – Italy played a very cagey game against Spain whereas they have attacked for most of their other games. England had a cagey first half against Germany too, the game only opened up once England scored. Under 2.5 goals is very likely here, but the 1.56 doesn’t make any appeal from a betting point of view. It’s hard to make a case that it should be shorter and it looks priced very fairly.

In the match odds market, England having home advantage makes them favourites. I do feel however that Italy are the better side, they certainly have better under-lining numbers and they came through better sides than England. Even though England have home advantage and we have an open market, I would actually have the sides even closer together. England a little bigger than 2.8 and Italy a little bigger than 3.05. We landed our draw bet at 3.85 in the England v Denmark game, and we arrive into the final with a 16.89 point profit on the tournament. Hopefully we can finish with a winner, and my final recommended bet is the draw here at 3.1.

The under/over 2.5 goals market looks priced very well. I’m tempted to lay England at the odds, but I can’t see anything other than a very close game here and the draw is my value pick at 3.1. Both sides have shown they can play very cagey football against top sides and I expect to see Extra Time here, maybe even penalties. Fingers crossed for a great game, but it’s very likely we finish with a 0-0 or 1-1 in my view! Thanks for reading over the last month and hopefully you made some profit too.

The Ultra Says:
Two points win Draw at 3.1 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here ->