SUNDAY IN EUROPE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Sunday’s games between BAYER LEVERKUSEN v BAYERN MUNICH, VILLARREAL v OSASUNA, JUVENTUS v ROMA and BARCELONA v VALENCIA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYER LEVERKUSEN V BAYERN MUNICH
2.30pm We have an epic Sunday ahead in Europe! We have some top quality action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange and we start with a top of the table clash in the Bundesliga. Dortmund play on Saturday, but at the start of the weekend fixtures Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen sat first and second with the same number of points. I think we are all expecting to see Leverkusen drop away at some point, but their fans can dream for the moment – any form of result today, even a draw, would be a massive morale boost. Although Bayern Munich suffered a shock defeat to Eintracht Frankfurt before the International break, they didn’t play badly and they continue to be in good form. They might have lost 2-1, but xG finished 2.29 to 0.60 to Bayern Munich – they are still creating some excellent xG figures this season.
You only have to look at the Bundesliga table to know that Bayer Leverkusen have started the season on fire. They have been playing some good football, but when you look at the xG figures you can clearly see that they aren’t on Bayern’s level. I think we know, it’s just when you see the chances created going forward it underlines the points. xG fans could argue that Leverkusen have been a little lucky this season – for example they beat Gladbach 4-0 but xG was 1.76 to 1.98, beat Stuttgart 3-1 but xG was 1.35 to 1.33 and they beat Mainz 1-0 but that finished 1.42 to 1.36. Those three games could have easily finished draws, and I feel today is when the music stops for Leverkusen. Bayern look massive at 1.66 and they have to be a Max Bet for me at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Bayern Munich to beat Bayer Leverkusen at 1.66 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLevByn
VILLARREAL V OSASUNA
5.30pm We had a quiet day in La Liga yesterday with only two fixtures, but we have some very interesting games today. Villarreal host Osasuna here and start the game as odds on favourites but Osasuna have started the season very well, and they are actually three points ahead of Villarreal in La Liga. It’s early days, but Osasuna started the weekend in fifth and I am sure they are delighted with that even at this early stage of the season. Villarreal are unbeaten in La Liga this season, but they have their usual problem – too many draws. They have drawn five of their seven games, and although they are obviously tough to beat it’s not a reason to back them at odds on here.
When you look at the xG figures, you can see that Villarreal have been lucky to remain unbeaten this season. They drew 0-0 with Real Madrid but xG was 1.67 to 0.82, drew 2-2 with Atletico Madrid but xG had it 1.99 to 0.40 and drew 0-0 with Espanyol but Espanyol finished with an xG of 1.79 to 0.63. Villarreal aren’t exactly created a lot of chances, and they do look short at 1.7. Osasuna have probably been more consistent than Villarreal and although they have been lucky at times, they have been unlucky too – they drew 0-0 with Celta Vigo but xG finished 2.87 to 0.10 in their favour. That’s probably one of the most unlucky results this season so far, and I believe they can get a result here. I’d have Villarreal much bigger than the current 1.7 and I expect the game to reflect that.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Villarreal to beat Osasuna at 1.7 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQVilOsa
JUVENTUS V ROMA
7.45pm Next we move to Serie A for a cracker as Juventus host Roma. I was just mentioning in my preview yesterday how these two sides have changed the league this season. Juventus are a different side after selling CR7 and they have been off the pace this season, while Jose Mourinho has spiced things up at Roma. If he can keep Roma in the top four this season we’ll definitely have a lot of drama ahead, however there’s a long way to go. Jose seemed to have started on fire, and running down the touchline after a goal seems to be working well with player morale and fans. Of course we all know how sour things can go quickly with Jose, but there will be less media pressure with Roma and perhaps he can build the perfect siege mentally that he enjoys. If he could finish top four this season and get more money for next season, he could actually build something great.
The chance of Jose losing the dressing room along the way are quite big as we know, but let’s see what happens. I sure Juventus fans aren’t happy with their teams start to the season, and if they aren’t careful they could really be in danger of losing Champions League football. That would be quite a dramatic drop considering they won the title in 2019/20 to do nine in a row! You get the feeling they are in real danger too, even with all the goals from CR7 last season they only got into the top four on the final day and needed results to go their way in other games. I expect Jose and Roma will love this challenge and given how well Roma have played at the start of the season I would expect a close game here. I can’t have Juventus as odds on favourites, and they look a good value lay at 1.97.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Juventus to beat Roma at 1.97 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQJveRom
BARCELONA V VALENCIA
8pm We move back to La Liga to finish an excellent day of action at Barcelona host Valencia. Much like Juventus in the above game, Barcelona have dropped well off the pace this season after losing their star man. The decline at Barcelona is much greater however as they had to let a handful of players go rather than just Messi. They suffered a horrible week leading up to the International break, losing 3-0 to Benfica in the Champions League and then 2-0 to Atletico Madrid. That means they started the weekend already five points behind Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid at the top of the table, and although they have a game in hand – Real and Atletico have only won five of their eight games so they’re not exactly on fire either! Barcelona are going to really suffer this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them out of the Champions League. Imagining Barcelona in the Europa League seemed madness only a short while ago, but it seems pretty close now – they’ve lost both their Champions League games this season.
Valencia did well last season considering their clear out during the summer, and not you would probably best describe them as your average mid-table La Liga side. Usually Barcelona would hammer sides like Valencia, but they have put in so many poor performances this season it’s hard to trust them. When you see them trading at prices like 1.58 at home, it’s always tempting to back them but you have to remind yourself they are a different side now. Valencia are higher in the table than Barcelona, and they have also had to play Real Madrid and Sevilla. Usually they like to keep games tight – for example they kept Cadiz down to an xG of just 0.14 away from home before the International break. I think they will give Barcelona a tough nights work and the 1.58 is worth a small lay.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Barcelona to beat Valencia at 1.58 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBarVle