SUNDAY EUROPEAN ACTION: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews Sunday’s games between MAINZ V AUGSBURG, BAYER LEVERKUSEN V SC FREIBURG, ROMA V AC MILAN and VILLARREAL V ATLETICO MADRID all with recommended BETDAQ bets.
MAINZ V AUGSBURG
2.30pm Another busy Sunday in Europe and we have some intriguing markets today. We start in the Bundesliga with a massive game at the bottom of the table. Mainz start the weekend in the relegation zone, however they are right in the mix to battle. Schalke are certain to go down, but Augsburg in 13th are only six points ahead of Mainz so you can see what a big game this is. Hertha Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld started the weekend just one point ahead of Mainz too. The home side come into this game in good form too and they have good momentum – this seems like an excellent opportunity to get three points and possibly push themselves out of the relegation zone.
You can see looking at the xG figures that Mainz are playing their best football of the season. They have been creating some excellent chances going forward, and actually managed to beat RB Leipzig here at the end of January. They edged out Gladbach in a close game and managed a 2-2 draw against Bayer Leverkusen where they actually created more. Their xG figures are much better than Augsburg and while Augsburg have had some tough fixtures lately, you can see Mainz are the side in form and creating the better chances. This is an excellent chance for Mainz to get three points and it’s a good time to back them too. 2.16 offers some nice value to start the day.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Mainz to beat Augsburg at 2.16 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQMaiAgb
BAYER LEVERKUSEN V SC FREIBURG
5pm We stay in the Bundesliga as Bayer Leverkusen host Freiburg. It’s fair to say Leverkusen will be gutted with their recent run of results because at one stage they looked like challenging Bayern at the top of the table. Bayern have even dropped points in recent weeks but Leverkusen have fallen well off the pace. They only have one win in their last five Bundesliga games, and they have been knocked out of the Cup too. They lost reasonably close games with Wolfsburg and RB Leipzig, but then couldn’t beat Mainz or Augsburg in the last few weeks. Mainz outplayed them too and although Freiburg are an average mid-table Bundesliga side; you wouldn’t be rushing to get on Leverkusen at 1.95.
Freiburg generally try to keep things tight at the back and don’t go all out attacking. That’s a change from most Bundesliga sides and with Leverkusen struggling at the moment I think there’s value in under 2.5 goals here at 2.3. I would have it closer to evens looking at the xG figures from both sides recently. Leverkusen have been giving away chances, but you wouldn’t say Freiburg are a side to fully take advantage of that, and Leverkusen are out of form going forward. It’s not often I back unders in the Bundesliga as it’s usually a league to back goals, but it looks worth backing in this fixture.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.3 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQLevFre
ROMA V AC MILAN
7.45pm We move to Serie A for a massive game. The wheels have fallen off AC Milan in recent weeks and they finished last weekend four points behind league leaders Inter Milan after losing 3-0 in the Milan Derby. It was always likely Inter would go past them, but the fall has been quite dramatic. They didn’t exactly perform well against weaker opposition in the Europa League midweek either and they only created an xG in a 2-0 loss to Spezia before losing to Inter. We landed a nice bet on Inter last weekend looking at the AC Milan performances, and we can land another nice bet against them here.
Roma are having a very solid season and aren’t too far away from the top of the table. They aren’t in the same bracket as Inter Milan or Juventus, but they must be confident of catching AC Milan in this form. I would have Roma shorter than the current 2.38 available on BETDAQ Betting Exchange and that looks a cracking bet. Roma were impressive in the Europa League, and apart from a disappointing 0-0 draw with Benevento in between that first and second leg they have been playing well in Serie A. They lost 1-0 to Juventus, but they actually had a better xG than Juve and with the form of AC Milan this seems an ideal time to get on Roma.
The Ultra Says:
The Ultra Says: Three points win Roma to beat AC Milan at 2.38 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQRomAcm
VILLARREAL V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm We end the day in La Liga with another fascinating game! Just like AC Milan above, Atletico have hit a bump in the road recently and although they still top La Liga they are much less comfortable. The reality is they started the weekend three points clear of Real Madrid and Barcelona with a game in hand, but it’s a lot of pressure and as they get closer the pressure grows. What a brilliant title race though, La Liga will probably be the best league this season in my opinion as we have plenty of drama ahead at the top and bottom of the table. Atletico face another tough task tonight too against a Villarreal side who have only lost three games all season.
The only side to lose less games than Villarreal is Atletico, as they have only lost twice all season. They suffered a Champions League loss midweek too however against Chelsea, and while it was a very tight game they didn’t perform very well. In fairness to them, they were desperately unlucky to lose against Levante midweek as they created an xG of 2.84 to 0.87 in a 2-0 loss. While Villarreal have been tough to beat, they aren’t higher in the table because they have had so many draws – 13 from 24 games. The draw will make a lot of appeal here at 3.1 as it’s hard to see anything both a close game but I like under 2.5 goals at 1.6. This game jumps off the page as an unders game – both sides play a very tight and compact game and Atletico haven’t had a lot of goals in their recent games. Villarreal will more than likely be happy with a draw, and I wouldn’t rule out a 0-0. Unders definitely looks the call in this one.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.6 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQVilAtl
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