SUNDAY PREVIEW: The Ultra previews Sunday’s matches between EINTRACHT FRANKFURT v KOLN, BOCHUM v BAYERN MUNICH, ATALANTA V AC MILAN and REAL SOCIEDAD v BARCELONA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
EINTRACHT FRANKFURT V KOLN
2.30pm We have a blockbuster Sunday in Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with action from the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga! We start in the Bundesliga with Eintracht Frankfurt hosting Koln. This is a very interesting market – Eintracht Frankfurt are pretty heavy favourites, although they aren’t odds on, and they have had a poor start to the season. They lost out to Real Madrid in the Super Cup but we can easily forgive them that – but domestically they were hammered 6-1 by Bayern Munich and put in a pretty lacklustre performance when drawing 1-1 with Hertha Berlin last weekend. Hertha Berlin finished in the relegation playoff place last season, and they created a better xG figure than Eintracht Frankfurt. I feel they are really struggling at the start of this season – I know you can forgive any side losing against Bayern Munich, but the manner of the defeat was a big worry and then to get held to 1-1 at Hertha is clearly disappointing too. I feel the 2.16 lay on Eintracht Frankfurt jumps off the page here.
Koln have been playing some very nice football at the start of their season. They hammered Schalke to start their season with a 3-1 win, although they created an xG of over 4 and could have easily scored more. They would have been very happy with a 2-2 draw away from home against RB Leipzig last weekend, but they actually finished with a higher xG figure. This is one of those markets where I just don’t understand the odds – Koln have started the season in great form and they finished well above Eintracht Frankfurt in the Bundesliga last season too. I just can’t have the home win here as short as 2.16. The little worry I had in the back of my head when I first saw the price was the Koln away form compared to the Eintracht Frankfurt home form – but having checked that it’s actually made me more confident. Koln finished more or less the same position purely on away form, while Eintracht Frankfurt dropped down to 16th on home form last season! They really shouldn’t be as short as 2.16 here, and I’m happy to have a Max Lay.
The Ultra Says:
Five points lay (liability) Eintracht Frankfurt to beat Koln at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FraKol
BOCHUM V BAYERN MUNICH
4.30pm We stay in the Bundesliga next as the German Champions Bayern Munich are back in action, this time away to Bochum. Bayern have started the season on fire with eight goals in two games, and they have totally outplayed their opposition so far. Bochum would have been absolutely delighted with home they performed in the Bundesliga last season after coming up, but really and truly there’s a huge gulf in class here and this is a case of how many goals can Bayern score rather than will they win. The market agrees with that – Bayern are trading as short as 1.22 at the time of writing which is a short price for an away side. While I’m not going to recommend a price like 1.22 for my best bet, I couldn’t put anyone off including Bayern in any Betdaq Multiple this weekend – they look a nice addition to any Acca to be honest. Bochum have started the season with two losses, and they will be hoping to avoid “second season syndrome.” Obviously this fixture will have no impact on whether they stay up or not, anything here is to be viewed as a bonus, but I do feel second season syndrome is definitely a worry for Bochum.
Bochum generally tried to keep games tight last season – a tricky thing to do in the Bundesliga to be honest – because they were limited at the back. They only scored an average of 1.1 goals per Bundesliga game last season, and their xG wasn’t far away from that either. I would be worried because they conceded less than they should have last season at the back, and they have started off conceding five goals in two games this time around. With Bayern starting the season in red-hot form, you have to focus on the goal and handicap markets here. Over 2.5 goals is nearly the same price as the Bayern win trading 1.26; the market is clearly expecting goals but I think they’ll all come from Bayern here. The 2.13 to cover the 2.5 goal handicap looks a very nice play here against a limited Bochum side.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Bayern Munich -2.5 goals to beat Bochum at 2.13 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BocBay
ATALANTA V AC MILAN
7.45pm We move to Serie A next for an absolute cracker between Atalanta and AC Milan. Both sides started the season with wins last weekend, with Atalanta beating Sampdoria 2-0 and AC Milan winning 4-2 in an entertaining game with Udinese. It was brilliant to see AC Milan roll back the years last season to lift the title, but they have to build on that – Inter Milan are a club that spends big and you’d have to feel the title will stay in Milan this season, it just depends what colour! Atalanta started last season well and they had been creating some nice xG figures for a few seasons; however they really dropped off last season to finish 8th. Maybe they can come back to their best this season without any European commitments, but basically they weren’t good enough last season. Jose Mourinho is doing great things with Roma, and Lazio have improved too – Atalanta have basically been knocked out of that top four/six by standing still when everyone else has improved. A couple of seasons ago Atalanta were a lot of Italian football fans “dark horses” to lift the title – they are nowhere close now. I can understand why we have a very open market here, but to be honest I can’t see past the AC Milan win.
The away win is trading very attractive odds too – it’s currently 2.6 at the time of writing. I would definitely have AC Milan at least 2.5, maybe even under. Not only were they a much better side last season with better xG figures – there’s a lot of factors here to give me confidence. The reason why Atalanta dropped down to 8th last season was their home form. If you look at the home form table they drop all the way down to 14th – that’s remarkable – they only managed 20 points from their 19 games, such a poor return for a “top” side. Where AC Milan won the title last season was their away form – they topped the away table and only lost once away from home all season. Inter Milan and Fiorentina were better than them at home, but they were clearly the best away. Both sides performed well on the opening weekend, and we’ll probably have that classic cagey Italian game here between two big sides but I just can’t get away from AC Milan here at the odds. The 2.6 is too big to turn down and they are a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win AC Milan to beat Atalanta at 2.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtaMil
REAL SOCIEDAD V BARCELONA
9pm We move to La Liga to finish a brilliant Sunday as Real Sociedad host Barcelona. There’s no much going on with Barcelona off the pitch at the moment it was always going to be so interesting to see how they played on the pitch last weekend. They produced the shock of the weekend when failing to beat Rayo Vallecano with home advantage. Given the financial situation, it doesn’t take a genius to work out that they need to be successful on the pitch. Another average season and they are in big trouble – to be honest they seem to be in big trouble as it stands. I’m not sure what they are going to do money wise – they have sold the rights of more things this week, and it will be very interesting to see what La Liga do. They started the game around 1.25 to beat Rayo Vallecano, and although they played well they just couldn’t find that all important goal. They won’t be unhappy to meet Real Sociedad here – they have an excellent record against them – they have won the last five meetings in La Liga and they’ve only failed to win once in the last ten meetings. An impressive record, but these are different times for Barcelona.
I said last season it was almost difficult to judge their odds in the market without Messi. They had changed so much, we were seeing prices we weren’t used to, they weren’t beating teams they used to! We almost have the same situation again this season, they are a club under immense stress at the moment, and I think it’s wise to keep stakes reasonably low in Barcelona games for the time being. Despite their poor record, Real Sociedad will fancy their chances here – they started the season with an excellent win at Cadiz. They only scored once, but they created an xG of 2.32. I wouldn’t be rushing to back Barcelona at 2.18 here, but I do believe the market has that price correct. You couldn’t argue for them to be shorter, and it’s hard to make them much bigger given their head-to-head record and let’s face it, there is a gulf in class between the sides. I was surprised to see Under 2.5 goals trading odds against though – we usually get cagey affairs between these two, and Barcelona aren’t exactly firing either – I wouldn’t be surprised to see another 0-0 or a 1-0 win either win and I’d have Under 2.5 favourite.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.1 wwith BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SocFcb