SUNDAY PREVIEW: The Ultra previews Sunday’s matches between AUGSBURG v HERTHA BERLIN, VILLARREAL v ELCHE, UDINESE v ROMA and VALENCIA v GETAFE all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
AUGSBURG V HERTHA BERLIN
2.30pm We don’t quite have a blockbuster Sunday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange from Europe this week, but we do have some interesting markets to look at. It’s easy to know that the Champions League is back next week as we have all the top sides in action in their domestic leagues on Saturday. That doesn’t mean we can’t find some value on Sunday between the smaller sides though! We kick the day off in the Bundesliga with Augsburg hosting Hertha Berlin. It’s early in the season, but this is already a massive game in the relegation battle this season. If you look at the Bundesliga table from last season, Augsburg finished in 14th just five points ahead of Hertha Berlin in the relegation playoff spot. Five points is a decent cushion by the end of the season, but during it you’re still bang in the relegation battle. Both sides have started the season on the backfoot too, but Augsburg will be the happier given they won a game. They managed to beat Bayer Leverkusen on the second weekend, but it was one of the most luckiest results in the Bundesliga this season. They won 2-1, but conceded an xG of 3.26! They lost their other three games and they have only created xG figures of 0.50, 0.56, 0.36 and 0.57 this season. Worrying times for them.
Despite Augsburg playing average football, you have to say that this is a great opportunity for them to win. Hertha Berlin are a very average side themselves and they have been in the relegation battle for a few seasons now. They only fell into the relegation playoff place on the final day last season, but they are a poor side. They have only managed one draw from their opening four games. Their xG figures read 0.34, 1.73, 1.27 and 0.47. They had to play Dortmund last weekend, and despite conceding an xG of 2.85 they managed to keep the score line down to just 1-0. Going forward they have definitely created more than Augsburg, and they have had a tougher fixture list too. There’s no getting away from the fact that this is going to be a pretty low quality game of football between two average sides, and it’s no surprise that we have a very open market here. Augsburg are slight favourites at 2.6 given home advantage. I can see both sides cancelling each other out here though and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a 0-0 draw. The draw looks a nice price at 3.6, and I’m happy to start the day with that.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AugHer
VILLARREAL V ELCHE
5.30pm Next we move to La Liga as Villarreal host Elche. Speaking of a relegation battle above in the Bundesliga game, Elche are a side who are going to be involved in the relegation battle in La Liga this season. They had a very strong mid-season last season to finish in 13th, but they were definitely in the relegation mix for a while and they finished down in 17th in 2020/21. Maybe I’m being harsh on them – because they did improve last season – I can just see them being on the edge again here, but being “too good to go down.” Around 14th or 15th feels about right. With the very slow start to the season from Sevilla, Villarreal are one of the clubs who will be eying up that fourth place and Champions League football. They finished 7th a few times, and it does appear that they just aren’t good enough to challenge that Top Four yet. They will be in the mix for the Europa League spots again though, and they have started the season positively. They won their opening two games against Real Valladolid and Atletico Madrid, but then got held to a 0-0 draw last weekend away to Getafe. They will be disappointed with the result, but the performance wasn’t bad. They created an xG over three times what Getafe managed, and truth be told they should have won the game. More impressive was their performance away to Atletico Madrid for a 2-0 win. That result would have definitely given them an early season boost.
Elche are a pretty average side – they really struggled away to Real Betis on the opening weekend. They lost 3-0 and conceded an xG of 3.81. Given that Villarreal are at a pretty similar level as Real Betis, I would expect a similar outcome here. Since then Elche have improved a little – they grinded out a 1-1 draw at home to Almeria in an even game and although they lost 1-0 to Real Sociedad last weekend it was a pretty even game. I just feel they will really struggle away from home this season, and everything points to a smooth win for Villarreal here. The market agrees with the home side trading as short as 1.35 at the time of writing. I would definitely recommended that as a bet to include in any Acca this weekend, but I feel Villarreal can cover the handicap here. They are trading 2.03 -1.5 goals which looks a cracking value bet to me – my most confident of the day.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Villarreal -1.5 goals to beat Elche at 2.03 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VilElc
UDINESE V ROMA
7.45pm We move over to Italy next as Jose Mourinho’s Roma are back in action in Serie A taking on Udinese. Mourinho really has a good thing going on at Roma at the moment – he delivered their first major European trophy last season, they had a huge number of season ticket holders this season so he has obviously connected with the fans and he also has the players playing their heart out for him at the moment. I say at the moment because we all know things can change. We have saw this at Chelsea, Manchester United and Real Madrid – huge success and then things start to go wrong and the dressing room is lost. He’s definitely under less pressure at a club like Roma though – they aren’t expected to challenge for the title at the moment, however after the midweek fixture they sat top of the table! AC Milan and Inter Milan have both dropped points this season already, and Roma have been ticking off the games nicely. They had ten points after four games which was good enough to top the table, and the draw came away to Juventus where they actually played the better football – they finished that game with an xG of over double what Juventus created.
It’s clear things are going well for Roma, but apart from Juventus they haven’t had a difficult fixture list. They have finished with xG figures of 2.93 v Salernitana, 2.75 v Cremonese and 2.48 v Monza. Three sides that they should be beating to be honest, and perhaps we didn’t learn anything there. Tougher challenges lie ahead, and it will be interesting to see how they cope away from home against a decent Udinese side. Udinese are your classic mid-table Serie A side, but they are pretty limited and you’d have to fancy Roma to win here. They are playing some very nice football and are full of confidence. The 1.87 on Roma here is definitely an appealing bet, and I don’t think we’ll find better value than that. Udinese did manage to hold Roma to a 1-1 draw here last season, and Roma needed a penalty in injury time for that too, but in general they have a good record against Udinese – they have won three of the last four meetings – and Udinese have been conceding chances for fun this season and Roma should get the job done here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Roma to beat Udinese at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/UdiRom
VALENCIA V GETAFE
8pm We finish Sunday in Europe in La Liga with Valencia hosting Getafe. Today definitely has a relegation vibe to it, as Getafe will be in the La Liga relegation mix again this season. To show you just how close things are at the bottom of La Liga – last season Granada went down with 38 points – then Getafe, Mallorca and Cadiz all stayed up just one point ahead of Granada with 39 points. Mallorca and Cadiz finished the season strongly too. Valencia made great progress last season – they finished in the top ten in 9th, considering how many changes they made before the 2020/21 season and they finished down in 13th that was great progress. They weren’t a million miles away from being included in the relegation battle at times in 2020/21 either. Valencia haven’t had much action in their three games this season, each game has finished with a score line of 1-0. They have kept games tight, and the xG figures haven’t been too high either. They won’t be too unhappy with a win and two losses considering they had to play Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid. They didn’t play too badly in either game to be fair, just weren’t good enough in close games. Getafe are still looking for their first win of the season – they have had to play Atletico Madrid too and lost 3-0, then lost 3-1 to Girona and drew 0-0 with Villarreal but they were pretty lucky there.
You’d have to worry about Getafe this season. Their under-lining figures are clearly average, but then again the relegation battle will be tight this season and probably involve six teams. I wonder how big that loss to Girona will be come the end of the season. I have to say I do like Valencia at 1.98 here – they are a much better side than Getafe and home advantage is a factor here. Getafe only managed 11 points away from home for the whole season last season. That’s a very poor result obviously, but another bet to consider here is Under 2.5 goals. As I said above, Valencia have been keeping their games very tight and it’s hard to see anything bar a cagey game here. Getafe won’t be unhappy with a draw, and I can’t see Valencia being too open either. That being said, Under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.58 which looks about right, so I feel the value play here is Valencia at 1.98 to get the job done against an average Getafe side.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Valencia to beat Getafe at 1.98 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ValGet