EUROPEAN FOOTBALL ACTION: The Ultra previews Sunday’s top games in Europe all with a recommended BETDAQ bet starting with VILLARREAL v SEVILLA in La Liga.
VILLARREAL V SEVILLA
3.15pm What a fantastic day around Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have some top quality action from Serie A and La Liga, with AC Milan clashing with Napoli and the Madrid Derby to end the evening. We kick the action off however in La Liga with Villarreal hosting Sevilla. What can you say about the Sevilla start to the season other than it’s been woeful. They finally got a much needed win under their belt last weekend with a 3-2 win over Espanyol, but even that was unconvincing because they conceded a higher xG figure than they created. They then failed to win away to Kobenhavn in the Champions League midweek only managing an xG of 0.74 in a pretty boring game and now they are definitely on the back foot in that Group after losing their opening game 4-0 to Manchester City. That was to be expected to be honest, but they need to secure that second position and didn’t get off to a good start. Apart from a 1-1 draw to Real Valladolid they haven’t bossed a fixture like they can – they haven’t control any fixture like we’re used to and they are giving away too many chances. It will be interesting to see how quickly they can turn things around, because they need to.
They face a decent Villarreal side here. They have had a very positive start to the season too but unfortunately lost their unbeaten record against Real Betis last weekend. Unlike Sevilla, they won’t be too worried because their performance was very good. They were unlucky to lose the game – they finished the game with an xG of 2.72 and they basically just need to keep playing like they have done. Clearly it’s very difficult to break into the top four in La Liga – the top three are pretty much nailed on too, but the slow start to the season for Sevilla has definitely opened the door for a side like Villarreal to make a challenge for that fourth spot. To do that though they need to win this fixture, and I feel they will. They have a huge amount going for them and they are playing superb football too while Sevilla look there for the taking. It’s a sign of the times that Villarreal are odds on favourites, but given the way Sevilla have given away chances for fun I still feel the 1.8 is good value.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Villarreal to beat Sevilla at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VilSev
ROMA V ATALANTA
5pm We move over to Italy next for two wonderful fixtures in Serie A. All eyes will be on AC Milan v Napoli later, but we start with Roma hosting Atalanta. Everyone has dropped points in Serie A so far this season – it’s actually been one of the more entertaining leagues and we should have a better idea where we stand in the top four race after today. Jose Mourinho will be hoping that his Roma side can at least challenge the top four this season after delivering their first major European trophy last season, but they did suffer a 4-0 loss to Udinese at the start of the month. They got a much needed win last weekend away to Empoli, especially because they followed up that loss to Udinese with another loss in the Europa League when heavy odds on favourites. They will be glad to have home advantage for such a big game here – Atalanta are one of the four sides who take an unbeaten record into this weekend. The other two clash later as they are Napoli and AC Milan, and then Juventus are unbeaten too but they have drawn four of their six games. All three sides have 14 points at the top of the table, and while Atalanta have been impressive this season it’s worth noting that they have had a pretty easy fixture list. Take out the AC Milan fixture when they drew 1-1 with home advantage, and they faced sides that they should be beating. They actually put in a pretty average performance last weekend at home to Cremonese to draw 1-1.
This should be a good game – I’m expecting a cagey and tense affair. I agree with the market in the sense that Roma should be favourites. I think if you look under the hood at Atalanta there are worrying signs despite them being in the top three. I think they are there because of the fixture list rather than talent – a bit like Arsenal in the Premier League. It is hard to make the case though that Roma should be shorter than their current 2.12 however. That price doesn’t jump off the page to me, and I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market. The market I disagree with is the Over/Under 2.5 goal market. Overs is currently odds on at 1.86 and I would personally have the market the other way around. As I said above, I just look at this fixture and see a very cagey game. We saw a 1-1 between Juventus and Roma, another 1-1 between Atalanta and AC Milan. I feel we’ll have another tense affair here without many chances.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.04 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomAta
AC MILAN V NAPOLI
7.45pm Next we have a belter as AC Milan host Napoli. On any other day, this would be the highlight fixture but we do have the Madrid Derby tonight too! This should be a cracker as well though, and both sides come into this fixture unbeaten – they sit at the top of the table with 14 points from six games and they will be keeping an eye on the Roma v Atalanta result earlier too. AC Milan would dearly love to hold onto their Serie A title after waiting so long to lift it, but we’re definitely going to have a lot of drama in Serie A this season – I can tell! Everyone has already dropped points, and I can see a big shake up in the top four race too. Juventus have only managed four draws and two wins from their six games, while Inter Milan already have two losses. The door is definitely open for AC Milan to hold onto that title. They face a Napoli side who come into this game in excellent form though. They took the Champions League headlines last week with a 4-1 hammering of Liverpool. They followed that up with a 1-0 win over Spezia but they controlled the game with an xG of 2.29 and then they hammered Rangers midweek in the Champions League 3-0. Those two wins were to be expected on paper, but overall they are just in a good place at the moment.
AC Milan have been pretty consistent this season, but they have thrown in the odd performance to be worried about. They were poor away to Red Bull Salzburg in the Champions League, and they were also pretty average away to Sassuolo where they conceded a bigger xG than they created. Perhaps those performances aren’t a worry because they have home advantage here, but I’d suggest Napoli come into this game in better form. They drew with Lecce and Fiorentina earlier in the season, but they created an xG over three times what they conceded against Fiorentina and close to double against Lecce. It’s all about the odds though, and I’d expect a very close game. I’d have an open market, and from a value point of view I’m very happy to lay AC Milan at 2.26. I fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest with Napoli in such good form coming here. This is going to be a very tense affair though and I can’t wait to watch.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) AC Milan to beat Napoli at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AcmNap
ATLETICO MADRID V REAL MADRID
8pm We move back to La Liga to finish the day as Atletico Madrid host Real Madrid. The Madrid Derby is always a special game, and this should be no different. Although this is always a game you look forward to, we generally see a very tense and cagey affair. Indeed, in the last ten La Liga meetings we’ve only saw Over 2.5 goals win once. That’s a very poor record for Overs backers, and it’s trading close to 2.0 either side in that market. I have to say it’s going to be hard to see past Under 2.5 goals at 1.93 as my best bet here, but let’s look through all options. As you would expect, we have an open market. Real have been superb this season and they have come out of the blocks firing. They are already two points clear of Barcelona at the start of this weekend, and they are miles ahead of Atletico Madrid who have only managed ten points from their opening five games. The only other challenger in La Liga is Sevilla, if you could even call them a title challenger to be honest, and at the moment it looks like they’ll have to fight for a top four spot never mind the title like last season. I feel Real Madrid will have a lot of fans here at 2.46 given the way the sides have started the season. Real have been absolutely superb going forward – their last four xG figures in La Liga have been 2.81, 3.28, 2.16 and 3.39. In between those games they have had two comfortable wins in the Champions League too.
Atletico Madrid aren’t in the same position. They have dropped points against Villarreal and Real Sociedad. Possibly a bigger worry is that they have conceded xG figures of 1.3, 2.23, 0.71, 1.63 and 1.83 this season. Just consistently giving away chances and not fully controlling games like they used to. Perhaps that’s why the market is expecting goals here, especially considering that Real have been so attacking this season. I couldn’t put anyone off backing Real at 2.46 here – they definitely look the better side on paper, but if they win I would expect them to have to grind it out. There really isn’t many chances in the Madrid Derby – we always see cagey affairs, possibly a lot of fouls and breaks in play. There isn’t an inch given and I’d expect more of the same. That Under 2.5 goal record stands out and we can see Unders win again here. That doesn’t mean it won’t be a great match to watch and enjoy though!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.93 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AthRma
