SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Sunday’s feature games in Europe before the leagues power down ahead of the World Cup. All matches include a recommended BETDAQ bet.


11.30am It’s the final day in Europe before we head to the World Cup and we have a cracking day ahead in Serie A on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. It’s actually hard to believe that the World Cup starts this day next week, but Serie A will be less impacted because Italy aren’t at the World Cup this time around. They still have many internationals stars though, and it’s such a quick turnaround. Nevertheless we have a cracking Sunday ahead – it’s a Cup weekend in Spain and the Bundesliga fixtures don’t catch my eye so we have a fully focused Sunday in Serie A. We kick the action off with a cracker too as Atalanta host Inter Milan. It’s been a very busy run to squeeze fixtures in before the World Cup, and it hasn’t been a good time for Atalanta. They have dropped out of the top four and Inter Milan overtook them with a win midweek. Atalanta come into this fixture having lost three of their last four games, and two of those came against sides now above them. They lost to Lazio and Napoli, but their worst result was losing to Lecce on Wednesday night. They were away from home so wouldn’t have started odds on to win, but they would have been reasonably expected to come away with three points there and that puts a massive dent in their bid for a European spot.

Atalanta started the weekend sitting in sixth but they have Roma behind them now and they have been playing well this season despite suffering some recent setbacks. Inter had a setback themselves last weekend when they lost 2-0 away to Juventus. They were unlucky if you look at the xG figures because they actually created more than Juventus, but that probably highlights that they just haven’t been at their best this season. They started the weekend sitting 11 points behind league leaders Napoli and that gap is going to be exceptionally difficult to close. Despite not being at their best, this is a good time to meet Atalanta in my opinion. Inter have been playing much better football recently and despite losing 2-0 to Juventus, they bounced back by putting six past Bologna midweek. This should be a good game, but I’m very happy to be getting 2.34 on Inter here and that price is worth a confident bet to kick off the day.

The Ultra Says:
Three points win Inter Milan to beat Atalanta at 2.34 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

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2pm Next we have Jose Mourinho’s Roma in action as they host Torino. Despite being in a different language, British football Twitter picked up on the Jose Mourinho press conference midweek. He basically said that one players wasn’t trying and let the whole squad now, and that players has been told he can leave in January. It was quite dramatic! Obviously the general reaction to that was to wonder who the player was, and possibly we’ve get some evidence here by what XI he names. Roma have been playing some superb football this season, but after getting unlucky a few times earlier in the season and then the two setbacks over the last week they are now sitting outside the top four. Things are so tight they dropped down to seventh after the midweek fixtures but they started the weekend only two points behind Juventus in fourth. The problem for Roma is that Inter Milan didn’t even start the weekend sitting in the top four so it’s going to be very difficult for them to break into the Champions League spots. Over all though looking at their under-lining numbers you have to say they are heading in the right direction. I suppose the big question is can Jose Mourinho hold onto the dressing room if things start to fall apart results wise? We’ve seen it time and time again. The World Cup break might actually come at a good time for Roma, but they must win here before heading into the break.

Torino will be a tough task for Roma, and Jose Mourinho’s men are currently trading 1.98 at the time of writing. I feel the most disappointing thing about their loss to Lazio and draw with Sassuolo is their performances were average. They finished with an xG of just 0.51 at home to Lazio and then created only 1.07 away to Sassuolo. They were two very close games without much in them, but Roma are losing those games. The Napoli game here was another example, the xG figures were 0.27 to 0.86 but Napoli grinded out the win. The good news for Roma is that Torino haven’t been creating much at all this season. Their average xG is just 1.1 which is poor considering they are a mid-table Serie A side. They are actually conceding more chances too – their average conceded xG is 1.3. I think they’ll try to keep this game as tight as possible and with Roma having issues going forward, Under 2.5 goals looks a nice play here at 1.72. We should have another very cagey game here. I’d expect fireworks in the press conference again if Roma don’t win!

The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->


5pm Next we have another game that will have an impact at the top of the Serie A table as AC Milan host Fiorentina. AC Milan are struggling to defend their title this season as they start the weekend sitting eight points behind Napoli. I felt we’d see a very exciting title race in Italy this season, but Napoli have been running away with it! They put ten wins in a row together before this weekend. They have been dropping too many sloppy points though – their draw against Cremonese midweek was a classic example of this too. Cremonese are in the relegation battle this season and despite being away from home AC Milan should be winning those games. They did create enough to win the game though, finishing with an xG of just 1.15. They have been unlucky at times this season, especially in their loss at home to Napoli but most of their poor performances have come away from home. The drew 0-0 with Sassuolo conceding a higher xG than they created, were lucky to beat Verona again conceding a higher xG figure and then they lost to Torino away from home before the Cremonese draw. They have clearly been much better at home, and they will be happy to have their final game at home before the break in the season.

This should be a good game, but AC Milan will be expected to win. They come into the game as odds on favourites – currently trading 1.75 at the time of writing – but Fiorentina will give them a lot of work to do. Fiorentina are sitting in mid-table at the moment, but they are creating more than they conceding this season. On average their xG has been 1.5 which is OK for a side like them, and their conceded is 1.2. Not too far away from AC Milan because they are creating 1.9 and conceding 1.1. Obviously most of the impressive AC Milan performances have come at home though, which is very important with this game in mind. Fiorentina have managed to get results against Napoli and Juventus this season, and it’s not like they are playing poorly away from home either. I’m going to keep stakes small, but I feel Fiorentina can get a result here and the draw is worth a small bet at 4.1. I couldn’t put anyone off a Correct Score of 1-1 either at around 8.2.

The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 4.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

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7.45pm It really is a fantastic Sunday in Serie A, and we finish the day with a cracker as Juventus host Lazio. You only have to look at the table to see that this is a massive game for both sides – Lazio actually started the weekend sitting in second but they are eight points behind Napoli while Juventus sat in fourth a further two points back. Juventus had a very poor start to the season, but they have shot up the table (again) in recent weeks just as they did last season. When you look at the under-lining numbers from Lazio you’d have to be worried. They are massively over-performing at the moment but their fans can live the dream for the time being! Even though they sit in second, I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see them drop out of the top four as the season goes on. We’re going to have a long break now with the World Cup, but it will be interesting to see how they are playing when we return. For example, they are creating an average xG of 1.3 but scoring 1.9 and conceding an average of 1.1 but the actual is 0.6. Eventually they are going to start scoring less and conceding more – you can’t over-perform all season, eventually sides will start to take their chances and you won’t score from every position yourself. The sides actually have very similar xG figures with Juventus creating 1.4 and conceding the same – but the media say Juventus are playing terrible football this season!

When you look at all the stats here, this should be a very close game. Both sides have a very similar profile when you dig into their under-lining numbers, however you have to say that Juventus have great momentum coming into this game. They will be on a high after beating Inter Milan last weekend, and then they followed that up landing a Max Bet for us midweek against Verona. Both times they didn’t create very impressive xG figures which does make the 2.08 feel too short on them here. I know Lazio are over-performing this season but as I said both sides have very similar profiles. I feel we’ll have a very close game here and it’s hard to get away from the Juventus lay at 2.08 – I’m happy to keep stakes small because they clearly do have momentum recently and they also have home advantage, but Lazio must be full of confidence too and without Juventus really creating a lot, I feel Lazio can get a result here. I would be tempted by the draw, but I’m going to lay Juventus to have the Lazio win on our side too.

The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Juventus to beat Lazio at 2.08 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->

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