1pm We have a huge Sunday around Europe this week! We have Real Madrid and Barcelona in action in La Liga, Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga and then a Milan Derby in Serie A – what a day on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! Real Madrid come into this game under intense pressure at the top of La Liga. Both themselves and Barcelona played midweek, and after two wins the gap was still five points. Real did well to win 2-0 and completely controlled the game – it was a confident performance and sets them up nicely for this game. Mallorca will be delighted to be sitting in mid-table given they won on the final day last season to stay up. There’s a huge amount of clubs involved in the relegation battle in La Liga this season, and I feel Mallorca aren’t one of them – they started the weekend with a six point cushion to the bottom three, which is a lot considering all the clubs between them and the bottom three. They have more-or-less performed to the same level at home and away this season, but most casual football fans will be expecting Real Madrid to come away with three points here.

Real have to go to the FIFA Club World Cup after this, so I feel from that point of view this is a must win game. They really can’t afford to let the gap to Barcelona get any bigger, even with games in hand. Barcelona will be expected to win later against Sevilla too. Mallorca are a solid side, but they are pretty limited. They have to grind out results and they don’t have many goals in their games. For example, in their La Liga games this season the average xG is only 2.3 – the actual figure is even lower, that works out at 1.7. The market knows Mallorca like to play a cagey game, and Under 2.5 goals is trading odds on at 1.73. Although I feel Real Madrid will have to grind out a win here, I believe they will. They are a much better side than Mallorca, and they have been creating a lot this season. Perhaps if Real were trading shorter than Under 2.5 goals I would be tempted, but the 1.8 on Real is too big to ignore here. They will create a lot more than Mallorca here and outclass them.

The Ultra Says:
Three points win Real Madrid to beat Mallorca at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

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4.30pm Next we move to the Bundesliga with the German Champions Bayern Munich in action as they travel to take on Wolfsburg. Bayern clearly haven’t been at their best this season, and they have dropped a lot more points than usual. They have returned from the World Cup with three straight draws in the Bundesliga, and they started the weekend with a three point lead at the top of the Bundesliga. I thought maybe we’d see a reasonably close title race this season when Bayern dropped points at the start of the season – it looked like it was business as usual heading into the World Cup with Bayern taking a big lead, but now things have opened up a little again. To be honest it’s still very difficult to see anything bar a Bayern win, but it would be nice to have a spicy title race at some point. Bayern’s xG figures haven’t been that impressive since resuming the season – they have only managed to create figures of 0.79, 1.44 and 1.46. They’ve had two home games too, so they are clearly struggling to create a lot of chances at the moment. I’m sure it’s just a blip because they usually finish most games with a figure higher than 2.0. Their average over the season so far is 2.3.

Although it won’t take much for Bayern to jump back into form, I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.64 here. They just haven’t fired since resuming their season, and while I won’t be taking them on either I can’t make the case to back them at those odds. Wolfsburg came up short last weekend away to Werder Bremen, but they couldn’t have resumed their season any better with a 6-0 win over Freiburg and a 5-0 win over Hertha Berlin! You can clearly see that they like playing an open game looking at their under-lining numbers, and I would expect a very open game here. Thoughts go directly to Over 2.5 goals and that’s trading 1.5 with Both Teams To Score at 1.57. I have to say I much prefer the Over 2.5 goals with only seven ticks in the difference – I can’t see past goals here and feel these two will make for a very entertaining game. Wolfsburg being so open might actually bring Bayern back to form in front of goal!

The Ultra Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

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7.45pm Next we head to Italy for the highlight fixture of the weekend in Europe. It’s a Milan Derby in Serie A, and is it a strange one this time with no real impact on the title race? Napoli are running away with the title at the moment, and these two are left battling for a Champions League spot. This game comes at a terrible time for AC Milan who have lost their last two Serie A games and only drawn the two before that. Inter Milan moved up to second place after the weekend, but they still started the weekend sitting a whopping 13 points behind Napoli. Inter actually resumed their season with a win over Napoli, but the way the other results have gone has meant the gap has actually got bigger! AC Milan will be under immense pressure having dropped out of the top four last weekend – although they are helped by the fact Juventus got hit with a 15 point deduction – the likes of Lazio, Atalanta and Roma are playing great football this season. To go from title winners for the first time in years to dropping out of the top four would be a huge setback for AC Milan, and they need a result soon. What a way to come into this game then!

There’s no home advantage here, but Inter come into the game as the favourites. They are trading 2.06 at the time of writing with AC Milan 4.0. Usually we see a very close game between these two – they know each other so well, and it can get quite cagey. AC Milan have won the last two Serie A meetings by one goal, but I can see that changing here. AC Milan are just in terrible form at the moment – you can clearly see that by looking at their under-lining numbers. They have finished their last four games with xG figures of 0.88, 1.45, 1.06 and 0.44. They haven’t finished any of those with a higher xG figure than they conceded, while Inter are playing good football. I haven’t been a huge fan of Inter this season – they have dropped a lot of points too – but you have to feel this fixture comes at a good time for them. I won’t go crazy with the stakes, three points feels right, but I can only see one winner here.

The Ultra Says:
Three points win Inter Milan to beat AC Milan at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

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8pm We move back to La Liga to finish a wonderful Sunday as Barcelona host Sevilla. Usually this would be a massive clash with an impact at the top of the table – that’s not the case this season as Sevilla have been shocking. They have won three of their last four games to get out of the relegation zone and move up to 13th at the start of the weekend – but they are still only two points away from the bottom three. For as bad as Sevilla have been this season, I don’t think anyone thought they were actually going to get relegated, even though they spent ages sitting in the bottom three! I’m sure it’s a huge blow to the club to be missing out on Champions League football from next season, and they won’t even have any European football next season. That’s a problem with money and attracting new players to the club. Their three recent wins have come against the three sides sitting in the bottom three at the start of the weekend, so you’d have to worry about them here. Barcelona are really putting the pressure on Real Madrid at the top of La Liga at the moment – they increased the lead to five points last weekend and they have basically made every Real Madrid game a must win game for them now. Ironically Barcelona took that lead when they weren’t even playing their best this season – they have been reasonably lucky at times since the World Cup but they bounced back to form with a comfortable 2-1 win over Real Betis midweek.

It’s a sign of how bad Sevilla have been this season that Barcelona come into this game trading as short as 1.37 at the time of writing. It’s hard to argue with the market too – Sevilla have been so poor at the back and Barcelona so good going forward this season, I can’t see past a home win here. I wouldn’t recommend a bet as short as 1.37 on its own, but I would definitely include Barcelona in any Acca this weekend. Sevilla have conceded an average xG of 1.8 this season, so Barcelona will get a host of chances here. I’m happy to back them to cover the 1.5 goal Handicap at 2.03. I was very surprised to see this trading as big as 2.03 and really felt we’d see a price of odds on! Barcelona’s average xG going forward this season is a remarkable 2.5 and while I fully accept they started a little slowly after the World Cup, they were clearly back in form against Real Betis. The 2.03 is worth a Max Bet for me.

The Ultra Says:
Five points win Barcelona -1.5 goals to beat Sevilla at 2.03 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->

THE STRIKER Sun: Premier League Preview
THE ULTRA Sat: European Football Preview
THE EDGE Sun: Royal Challengers Bangalore v Mumbai Indians
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THE ULTRA Fri: Bundesliga / La Liga Preview
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PGA Tour: Valero Texas Open preview/picks
PAT HEALY: All the best to Bryan Cooper
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WEEK AHEAD: AJ returns to action
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