SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Sunday’s top games in Europe including El Clasico at 8pm BARCELONA v REAL MADRID. All games previewed with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYER LEVERKUSEN V BAYERN MUNICH
4.30pm What a blockbuster Sunday around Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have the Bundesliga Champions Bayern Munich in action, two huge clashes in Serie A and then to top the day off we have El Clasico to finish. This is easily the best day of football in Europe all season in my opinion. It’s just a shame that Inter Milan v Juventus and Barcelona v Real Madrid kick off within 15 minutes of each other! We start the day in the Bundesliga as Bayer Leverkusen host Bayern Munich. It was a good weekend for Bayern Munich last weekend as Dortmund dropped points over Schalke giving them a two point lead at the top of the table. I don’t think anyone doubts that Bayern will lift the title again, but it would be nice to have an interesting title race! Leverkusen are having a poor season this time around – they start the weekend sitting down in ninth, a long way away from their third place finish last season. They are six points away from the European spots, but it doesn’t look likely for them. No European football next season will be a big blow to the club, but they just haven’t been good enough this season. They definitely over-performed in front of goal last season, but there was also a bigger gap between their average xG created and average conceded.
Conceding an average xG of 1.4 isn’t very high, but it is high, and it’s not a figure you want to have going into a game against Bayern! Leverkusen haven’t been especially strong at home either this season, they actually have the same amount of points at home as they do away from home. I was surprised to see Bayern trading as high as 1.6 when I clicked into the market here – I felt we’d see them much shorter given the season Leverkusen are having. I know Bayern haven’t been at their best this season – they usually have the title won by now – but they have found their winning touch recently. They are still conceding more chances than they would like however, and that’s why we see Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.43. If that was on the other side of 1.5, I would be very interested but it’s hard to find a better value bet than Bayern Munich here. Leverkusen just haven’t been good enough this season, Bayern hammered them 4-0 earlier in the season and the 1.6 is worth a Max Bet in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Bayern Munich to beat Bayer Leverkusen at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ByrBay
LAZIO V ROMA
5pm Next we move over to Italy where we have back-to-back huge clashes in Serie A! Inter Milan v Juventus is definitely the more glamorous fixture, but Lazio v Roma has more on the line in my opinion. Since Juventus got deducted 15 points after an investigation in their transfers, the top four race in Serie A has been wide open. Basically everyone has dropped points apart from Napoli who are running away with the title, and it’s a very open race for the Champions League spots. Inter Milan started the weekend sitting in second, but there’s only three points between them and Roma in fifth. Atalanta have dropped a lot of points recently, and they have dropped out of the top four race with Juventus sitting behind them but the deduction has really set them back. There’s only two points between Lazio and Roma, and it’s fair to say the loser (if there is one) is really going to be on the backfoot. Roma will be kicking themselves with the two losses in recent weeks against Sassuolo and Cremonese – two sides they should be beating, and indeed were odds on to beat. They actually got totally outplayed last weekend against Sassuolo, worrying conceding an xG of 3.05 which was one of their worst performances of the season. Lazio had a disappointing result last weekend too, drawing 0-0 away to Bologna – especially considering they had beaten Napoli 1-0 in the game prior!
We should have a cracking game here. There’s been a lot of drama around Roma in recent weeks, Jose Mourinho got a red card and then we had the massive win over Juventus! They face a really tough test here though, and you wouldn’t say that a draw would be a bad result away from home. From that point of view, it will be interesting to see how Jose Mourinho sets his side up here. We have an exceptionally open market, Roma are trading marginal favourites at 2.84 at the time of writing but there really isn’t much in it. Lazio are the side in the top four that have been over-performing this season. There under-lining numbers aren’t as impressive as the others around them, but they continue to grind out result after result. I really don’t see much between the sides here, and while the draw is a tempting bet at 3.1 I’m going to lay Roma at 2.84. I just feel with home advantage it should be Lazio that are the marginal favourites and not Roma. It’s nice to have the draw on our side here too with the lay.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Roma to beat Lazio at 2.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LazRom
INTER MILAN V JUVENTUS
7.45pm We stay in Serie A for another cracker as Inter Milan host Juventus. As I said above, there isn’t as much on the line here as there is in the Lazio v Roma game, but we should have a brilliant game here nonetheless. It would have been more important if Juventus didn’t get slapped with a 15 point deduction, but here we are. It’s fair to say that neither side have been at their best this season and have dropped a lot more points than usual. Juventus have been better at grinding out results though. Without the 15 point deduction, Juventus would be sitting in second place, three points ahead of Inter Milan. A good stat is Inter have lost more games this season than they did over the last two season! It’s a massive blow for Juventus that they will miss out on European football, especially the Champions League next season, and we should see some changes in the summer. Inter Milan were in action midweek in the Champions League, getting a 0-0 draw away to Porto to get through to the Quarter-Finals. For the second time in the Last 16, it was an Italian side defending a 1-0 lead away from home. Absolutely textbook!
Juventus arrive into this fixture in good form, and I was surprised to see Inter trading as short as 2.04 when I clicked into the market. There really isn’t much between the sides here – and I fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest. Juventus are creating an average xG of 1.5 this season and only conceding an average of 1.0. Inter have been better up front with an average created xG of 1.8, and their conceded is 0.9. You’ll say Inter have played the better football, but not enough to make them as short as 2.04. Juventus have a great record against Inter too – Inter have only won once in the last six meetings in all competitions. Juventus beat them 2-0 prior to the World Cup, and last season they picked up a 1-1 draw. The Coppa Italia Final between the pair was very close too, going to extra time. I can only see a very close game here, and given Juventus have been playing well lately I’m very happy with the Inter lay at 2.04.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Inter Milan to beat Juventus at 2.04 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntJuv
BARCELONA V REAL MADRID
8pm We move to La Liga to finish a blockbuster Sunday with the biggest fixture of them all – El Clasico! Barcelona are in a very good position heading into this game with a nine point lead at the top of La Liga. As I said last weekend, even if Real Madrid win this game Barcelona are still in a very strong position. Real Madrid were in action midweek in the Champions League, they grinded out a 1-0 win over Liverpool but basically they only had to get through those 90 minutes with as little drama as possible because of the 5-2 win in the first leg. Barcelona got to enjoy a week off as they are out of Europe, and they will be glad to have this fixture at home because their last few away performances haven’t been too strong. They grinded out a win away to Athletic Bilbao last weekend but they finished the game with a lower xG figure than Bilbao, and then their two away games prior were losses to Almeria and Manchester United in the Europa League. It will be very interesting to see how both sides line-up here, and what tactics they employ. A draw would be a good result for Barcelona – given the nine point gap, you’ll have to call this a must win game for Real Madrid. It’s hard to believe that Real Madrid won the last El Clasico and still ended up behind Barcelona in the table heading into the World Cup!
Despite losing 3-1, Barcelona actually finished the game with a higher xG figure. They created 2.28 and were unlucky to not come away with something. They have been back to their brilliant best this season, their average xG created is a very high 2.4, but they haven’t been without their poor performances – in fairness there’s been a lot going on behind the scenes over the last two seasons! Real Madrid have an average xG created 2.3 and the two sides have very similar figures at the back too. There really isn’t much between them over all, and while I would definitely lean towards Barcelona to win the 2.22 looks a little short. It’s hard to make the argument that they should be much shorter. Real Madrid have to win this game, there’s no two ways about it, so I do expect them to attack. That will open the game up, and Over 2.5 goals looks a nice position at 1.94. There’s so much attacking talent on the pitch here I’d be surprised if we didn’t see plenty of goals! What a day to enjoy!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarRma